I was asked why I think a Tesla would be the EV to buy?

As many of you who have read my blog know I have a Ford Focus EV. I bought the Ford because it was the best overall EV for the price.

Yet it has it’s drawbacks. There isn’t a single Ford with a battery in it that was designed to have a battery in it. If you want either the Focus Electric or one of their PHEV’s, the battery takes up cargo space. In the Focus it takes up a lot of cargo space.

 

 

 

The car also has a much wider turning radius than the ICE model Focus. You can’t make a u-turn on a normal two lane city street. You have to make a 3 point turn. Other than that it’s pretty much identical to the gas powered Focus with the SEL Trim Package. It has a real world range of about 75 miles.

Then you have the Mercedes B-Class EV. It’s a really nice looking car. Lots of room behind the back seats and the back seats fold down flat to create even more cargo space if needed. There is no battery in the way.

 

This is a really a nice luxury EV that is not far off that $35k mark after the tax breaks. It has a pretty good real world range of about 85 miles. They actually designed the B-Class with using a battery for an energy source to begin with. Like the Tesla, the batteries lay flat under the cabin.

But then they go and screw things up by taking what is a really nice radar cruise control system and change the function of it. A radar cruise control should  keep your distance from the car in front of you and com to a complete stop if the car in front of you does. Instead if you start closing on the car in front to fast it applies the regenerative brakes so you don’t waste opportunity to recharge the battery by slowing down to quickly. That sounds like a great idea, right? Where they go wrong is now it won’t stop the car anymore if you are going to hit the car in front of you. I don’t know about you but I would much rather have a safer car than get that extra 2 or 3 miles from the regenerative brake system during a full charge.

There are also a few more compromises because while they did design this car with the batteries out of the way, they also designed it so they could use any of their powertrains. In Europe it is sold with both gas and diesel engines and they might also develop a fuel cell version.

The V.W. eGolf suffers from the same issues. While it accommodates the batteries without intrusion it doesn’t really have all the computer software and indicators that you want to see in a pure electric car.

This is where the Kia Soul EV actually has done a lot better job. But, yes their is a but. They take out the power seats. The top trim level has manual seats and very few of the new safety features available on most car today.

What all the companies out there have in common is that they compromise they EV’s to allow for different powertrains be they hybrid, Gas or Diesel. They are not betting the farm so to speak or going all in on Electric. Tesla is.

There is one automaker that has bet a lot on the EV, Nissan. Yet they have also made compromises. Unlike Tesla they decided that they would try to design an affordable EV from day one. It was really anything but affordable in the beginning and didn’t really get much traction until they offered the car at a sub $200 a month lease rate. Something that is starting to hurt them now as many people reach the end of their leases.

Nissan also suffers from the car being pretty ugly, fairly modest if not downright utilitarian as well as having bumps in the cargo bay.

Just like when the Prius started out you really had to want to be an early adopter.  I do find it interesting that now that the Prius has been on the market now for 15 years and within the last 3-5 years all of a sudden all the other car makers are coming out with some version of a hybrid car. And a handful after the slight and I say slight success of the Chevy Volt are now experimenting with Plugin In Hybrid cars. Most of the EV’s out there today are still nothing but compliance cars. Cars that allow them to keep making Internal Combustion Engine (I.C.E.) cars.

On the other hand you have Tesla. They first proved the concept with the Tesla Roadster. They proved a car could go 200 miles on a single charge and be fun to drive.

Their next car was the Tesla S. A car that was designed from a clean sheet of paper. No hedging their bets by having an ICE version. While it’s not a car for the mass market it is arguably one of the most successful cars in it’s price range. It’s also a car that is in the top safety, speed and has the most satisfied buyers of any car out there.

After the S we now have the X, the next car in the evolution. Also a very expensive car. Yet it does more than any other car in it’s class. I’m not sure there is any other car in it’s class.

But here are the reasons I really think Tesla is going to be the first to the really affordable car that everybody will want to buy.

They are now hard at work building the Tesla 3. A car that may have a 200 mile range. Seat 4-5. Actually carry some cargo much like the Mercedes B-Class or VW eGolf.

It will hands down have the least compromises with the greatest utility and look good doing it.

They will also have access to the Tesla Supercharger network. This is no small amenity. Even if GM or BMW builds a 200 mile car those batteries aren’t going to charge overnight in the average persons garage. Today an average pure EV battery is in the 24kWh range. With a 220 charger that takes about 5-8 hours. With a 110 it takes 15-20 hours.

Now double or triple the size of the battery and you need to double or triple the time it takes to charge. The only company that has the infrastructure in place to take advantage of a battery that size is Tesla. The only company that will allow you to take that car cross country is Tesla.

And while the eGolf or the B-Class Mercedes have enough range and luxury for most people and will also sell in that 35k price range they probably won’t be as desirable.

Many of you may have noticed I haven’t mentioned the BMW i3 yet. BMW did design the i3 from the ground up with the EV powertrain from day one. Yet they still have hedged their bet by offering a gas engine to extend the range. It’s either a work of art or really ugly. It’s really small and is really a two door car. And like every other BMW there is a big jump in price from the base model to the one that has all they toys you really want. For about the same price I would rather own the Mercedes B Class.

I don’t want a car that screams look at me. If I did I’d buy a Mustang or Corvette.

I don’t want a hybrid. They no longer get you in the HOV lane and are more utilitarian to drive than fun. Yeah, they get 40-50 MPG but the Mazda 6 gets 40 MPG on the highway and doesn’t suffer from being boring. Actually if you drive a lot on the highway hybrids might do worse than a Mazda 6. I know my Prius V does worse on highway trips. And around the city that extra 12 mpg isn’t really worth $10k more for the car.

I don’t want a plug in hybrid because the whole reason for an electric car is to eliminate waste and pollution. I don’t want a muffler, pistons and a fuel tank. I like never having to go to a gas station unless I have to stop and pee or need a 64 ounce drink.

And I really don’t want a Chevy Bolt. Smart Car or iMev. These cars are jokes. They aren’t even cute. To me they scream Bill Nye the science guy or Ed Begley Jr. They might be nice guys and I applaud their efforts to reduce pollution but, these are not two guys who inspire confidence or success.

There are a couple other things that make me think Tesla might just have what it takes to compete long term.

The evolution of Tesla is very much like the evolution of the Cell Phone. The supercharger network is very much like the evolution of the cell phone network by design. And the Tesla philosophy is very much like that of Apple and the iPhone.

I think every other car maker is going to be like all the other manufacturers who make Android Phones. Except they won’t have a cohesive infrastructure to support them. If they are going to rely on others to set up their charging networks they will fail. The average EV user, rarely if ever, charges anywhere but home or work and mostly at home.

That’s because the average driver rarely ever drives more than 50 miles a day. Only once in a while do they ever take that road trip everybody talks about that you need a 200-300 mile range.

And most smart people either fly or rent a car when going really long distances. If you breakdown in a rental you call the company and get a new car.

Rental companies make their money on people who rent cars locally. The people they know are only going to drive less than 50 miles in a day. You know, like the person who should really be driving an electric car. The person like you or me.