I love that you want to make the Tesla a fully autonomous vehicle. Being in my mid 50’s I’ve seen what happens to our parents when they can, or no longer should drive, but hold on much longer than they should, to their cars and their licenses.
I also live in Arizona near one of the largest Senior Communities in the State. The accidents aren’t pretty and happen far to often, many times with devastating results.
This is the probably one of the best reasons I see for advancing the autonomous vehicle. For people who for whatever reason can no longer or never were able to drive (blindness).
But I hear you talk about how I’m going to send my car out to work when I’m not using it. I have also heard you talk about how those who drive for a living are going to lose their jobs to autonomy. That might be true. But, I can tell you have probably never driven a taxi or given an Uber ride. If you had, you’d know how crazy it sounds. I have a hard enough time parking in a public lot, where scratches and dents are a fairly normal occurrence, and no one claims responsibility. Once in a while something like this happens:
And I’m not talking about that she has passed out and isn’t getting out of the car without calling the police.
In the old days when Taxi Drivers and Owners could make a living, GM and Ford made Taxicab versions of their cars. While many of the options will not be needed by an Electric car, like bigger brakes and larger cooling systems to sit long periods in heavy traffic, I can think of a few that will be very necessary.
The biggest need, very heave duty upholstery, where when someone vomits or leaves any other bodily fluid it is easily cleaned. No leather, no carpet, something you can easily hose out. And without a driver, how will we know when the car needs a good cleaning before it gets to the next passenger? Who enforces the no smoking rule?
I also am guessing that you aren’t accounting for the passenger that opens the door into traffic. So far only the back doors on the X are vertical opening. On the cheaper S and 3, having a door get hit without a system to prevent it, like a human, I see it happening far more often and it does happen more often than you might think. And those doors and seats are going to have a lot of cycles on them. Something very few passenger cars are built to handle. It’s not uncommon for hinges to crack like a kid flexing an aluminum can till it cracks.
Then you have passengers that want to get in or out right in front of their origin/destination. Can your car do that, yet? Stop in a lane of traffic and open the doors?
You say that you can set your car so only family, friends or 5 star passengers can use it. Whose going to give the passenger the stars, HAL? Can it smell body odor? Remember the Seinfeld episode with the valet?
If the car gets hit who’s going to call the police and fill out the police report?
Whose going to help put luggage or groceries in the trunk?
There is one other thing I hear you talk about. That the cost of a car (I assume you mean cost per mile) is going to be so cheap that it won’t make sense to ride the bus.
I’m not sure how you figure that but lets give it a try. Right now in Phoenix Uber pays 70 cents a mile and 7 cents per minute. Now we all know the car is only being paid with a passenger in it. If you are lucky that half the time and half of the miles driven. In the end the driver gets 35 cents a mile and 3 cents per minute. Actually less because Uber gets 20-25%. How much are you going to keep?
If a car drives an average of 30mph and is driving with a fair half the time thats $2 in time and $10.50 per hour. Or a total of $12.50 per hour. Then Uber gets there piece, $3.13 or $9.37 an hour. That equates to 31 cents per mile.
Right now based on that number Uber drivers are working pretty much for free as there are almost no cars out there that cost less than 31 cents per mile when you add up all the costs to operate.
If a Model 3 costs $50k and you can get 500k miles out of it depreciation alone is 13 cents per mile. Add about 6 cents per mile in electricity and we have 19 cents a mile so far. Thats about 5 years of driving in a cab in a major city and most new cabs barely last 4 years but were going to give your car every opportunity.
That will probably take 10 sets of tires or $7k, 7 sets of brakes at $300 or $2100 and 5 years of insurance at $3k or $15k. Lets add $2k a year for incidentals which is also probably low. About another $5k a year. So total $25k more divided by 500k is another 5 cent per mile.
So we are now at .25 cents per mile. If we look at the cost of an Uber with a driver there is 6 cents per mile profit.
If your car can meet my assumptions that’s a $6k a year return on a $50k investment or 12%. That’s pretty good and even better if you can double your paid miles.
But, odds are better that you’ll only get 300k miles out of the car, not 500k. If that happens the returns are negative.
And there is one other catch. And we can thank Uber for this one. There is no longer a barrier to entry. Anybody can put on one car or one hundred cars. The reason Uber fares are so cheap is because there are more Uber drivers than cockroaches. Uber drivers don’t do the math so they work for next to nothing. I’m not sure a person would let another person they don’t know in their cars unsupervised. Although it pretty obvious they will give people rides for close to free. If I lived in New York, San Francisco or San Diego I’m not that sure I would even own a car anymore.
I spent a week in DC last month and had a rental for just one day. Between Uber and Public Transportation we spent less than $100 for the week. Who needs a car.
I will buy a Tesla that is fully autonomous when that price hits $50k or less but I’m sure as hell not letting anybody but family ride in it.
The only way I’d buy more than one and operate it like a taxicab is if it made financial sense. The only way to do that is limit the number of cars out there. But, I think that cat is already had it’s nine lives.
One last problem with self driving cars and ride sharing. Ride sharing only works because people see giving rides as a way to get others to pay for their car. The fewer people with cars the fewer people willing to share for cheap. Does that solve the problem of getting more per mile? Maybe.
Toyota introduced the first Prius in 1996. And it wasn’t sold in the U.S. till 2000. Most car makers didn’t take the Prius serious for years and even today offer very few hybrid and even fewer fully electric vehicles. And almost 20 years later the Prius or any hybrid aren’t sales leaders by any stretch of the imagination.
Even before the Prius G.M. built the EV1. And the promptly killed it 4 years later. It had a cult following but had G.M. kept it around I doubt it would have made much traction. It was a basic car with little luxury and of limited use. And for that same reason I bet the Bolt won’t do a whole lot better. Almost every other EV currently made or coming soon to a dealer near you are luxury cars. And we can thank Tesla for that. Even the Tesla 3 is going to be nice.
Tesla introduced the first Tesla, the Roadster in 2008 at the beginning of the worst economy since the Great Depression. In 2012 the Model S hit the streets and less than 5 years later luxury car makers have realized that they have lost a lot of sales to Tesla. Luxury six figure sales.
Once the Model 3 comes out BMW and Even Ford and Chevy are not going to lose many sales. Tesla won’t be able to keep up with the demand. As long as BMW, Mercedes and Porsche/Audi/VW, not a small company by any measure have far more capacity to build cars people want. They even have them within a year or two of being on showroom floors.
Tesla on the other hand is constrained by limited production capability. There is a site, teslanomics.com that has a Tesla 3 delivery estimator.
If you don’t already own a Tesla and don’t live in California and put down your $1k today you won’t see your car for 2 years.
Maybe the U.S. and Japanese carmakers will see that electric cars are not only here to stay but about to change the way we think about transportation.
Volvo has recently announced that all cars from 2019 and beyond will offer some type of electrification.
That doesn’t mean that they are going to build only battery electric vehicles like Tesla.
All that means is that every vehicle they build will have one type of “special” electric component.
That could be a hybrid combination, plugin or not, or just a 48 volt mild hybrid. It could be as little as the Mazda type E-Loop system where regenerative brakes charge a capacitor and adds and extra MPG or two.
Mercedes, BMW and Porsche are actually way ahead in that they have already committed to or currently have hybrids, plugin hybrids or a full BEV coming out in the next model year or two.
While I applaud Volvo their market share is barely half a million cars a year. But like Elon always says. His mission was to start the other automakers down the path of electrified mobility.
I’ve been writing a lot about Tesla lately. It’s not just because I drove one. I’m trying to find a reason to buy one. The cheapest new Tesla S you can build is $76k before sales taxes or tax incentives. So that’s still about $76k all said and done.
Now add the options on my list, Premium Upgrade, Enhanced Autopilot and Full Self Driving adds another $12k. And what’s a luxury car without leather and a sunroof. Add another $6k to the price tag. All in for $88k or lease for $1200 a month for a 1000 mile a month limit. That’s a $1.20 a mile before insurance, washes, electricity, tires. And don’t forget repairs or parking lot dings. Maybe Tesla needs to invent a force field so you don’t stress at the grocery store.
You could take an Uber everywhere for less. And Uber includes a driver. Actually Uber is so cheap in most places that I’m not sure there is a reason to own a car anymore. Once you add up all your expenses to operate a car I seriously doubt Uber drivers are making the minimum wage for servers let alone $10 an hour.
Speaking of Uber. If you have never used Uber. Use the code Z4JRI for $20 off your first ride.
If you are like me and have never used Lyft. Use the code DOGFOOD and get up to $20 off your first ride.
I have to confess. Just like most people logic is the last thing I think of when I test drive or shop for a car. We buy cars using our emotion. If not we would all be driving the modern equivalent of the Amish horse and buggy. So let me tell you about my emotional experience at the Tesla Store. Notice I didn’t say dealer.
If you are like most people you hate going to the car dealer to buy a car. Buying a car is more like the death of a thousand cuts. The sales person, the sales manager, the back and forth and psychological games they play. And just when you think it’s over the guy doing the paperwork is another gauntlet of horrors before you can get out the door. And like Richard Gere in First Knight, no matter how hard you train or prepare you might feel like you won in that final moment but in the end you lost. The dealer always wins.
Unlike the car dealer the Tesla Store is completely different. Like the Apple Store it is best to make an appointment online to be sure they have a “co-pilot” who can take you out for a drive. They don’t have tens of people sitting around waiting to make a commission like a car dealership.
The day prior to your scheduled appointment a person will call and ask you if you have any questions they can answer or if you have a trade in. I’m not sure how the trade would work as I didn’t have one nor did I plan on walking out with a new car on my test drive. If you have done that please leave a comment below on how that worked.
Probably, like most Tesla buyers I already know quite a bit about the car and the company. Did I say they aren’t trying to sell you a car. Just kidding. They are just doing it in a subtle non threatening way. His/her real job is to ask you questions, so when you get in the store they are’t wasting time playing the get to know you bonding game.
What I didn’t know is that most Tesla buyers have never spent more than $40k on a car before. Most people aren’t buying this car for status or to show the neighbors how rich they are or want you to think they are. Many just want a Tesla. It’s just that cool, technology wise. It’s not plush or refined by any stretch. It’s more IKEA than Ethan Allen. It’s the symbolic equal of getting a tattoo for many. They don’t care what you think. They just have to have it. Although I doubt there are college students going without Mac n Cheese so they can afford one.
On to the Test Drive.
I grab my lab rat, sorry. My 13 year old, 6 foot 2 inch son. We jump in my plebeian Mazda 6. Not really. It’s a really nice $24k car with plenty of neat safety options, just not the really cool ones Tesla has, and drive the 15 minutes to the really nice Tesla Showroom/Delivery/Service Center in Tempe, A.Z.
We find a place to park, not an easy task, with very few open tiny spaces (by design) and go inside. We are greeted by a young man (definitely not your average car salesman) who checks us in and tells us our co-pilot is getting our car ready.
Out walks Emily. Also not your average car sales person. She could just as easily have been a lawyer or a barista at Starbucks or young dudes sister. She was far to good looking to be his girlfriend. She introduces herself and we proceed outside to our ride de jour.
Less than 4 days later as I write this I can’t tell you what color the car was or what color interior it had. Only that the headliner was drab and it had no grab handles over the doors. The red P90D in the showroom was far more memorable.
As we approach the car and she opens the driver door and says “hey you, get in to my car”. And I say, “who me”? Just kidding Billy Ocean fans. She does open the door and ask me to get into the car and set the seat and mirrors.
Being it’s in a narrow space and I’m not a tiny guy I ask her if we can see it drive itself out of the space. Summon Mode. With a touch of the cute car shaped key fob it pulls itself out of the space. There is also an app for that.
We all pile into the car. Emily on the passenger side front seat and my son in back in the seat behind me. If a taller than 6 footer can sit comfortably behind another 6 footer then the leg room is adequate or better. Also the back seat headroom of most cars is not designed for people over 6 feet tall. They just figure the kids are going in back. Before I forget. The car turns itself on as you approach. It even extends to hidden door handles for you.
Now to be fair I have already driven a Tesla S P90D before. It belongs to a friend. But, I only did the usual 0 – 60 crazy type driving in an industrial area on a weekend where it was deserted. We didn’t drive on the highway or in city traffic. That’s what this test drive was all about. Using the autopilot function in traffic on the highway and in the city.
So out we go from the parking lot and down the 2 blocks to get on to the expressway. It’s about 1PM on a weekday. A good amount of traffic but not rush hour. Maybe we were cruising along at 55 – 65. On goes the autopilot. The car does a really good job of holding the center lane and keeping a safe distance from the car ahead of you.
It’s blind spot monitoring is a bit odd if you are used to most other cars. It does not have an indicator on the side mirrors or give you an audible warning if you put on your turn signal.
The small OLED screen in front of you has a little sonar type indication if there is a car next to you. You can also see cars sneaking up on you on the big center display with the rear camera on.
If you put on the turn signal with autopilot and there is a car in the blind spot, or to your side it will not go. But if the area doesn’t clear in a set amount of time it will just cancel the lane change. It won’t change lanes when it’s clear. It requires that you pay attention and don’t put the lane change indicator on till you have determined that the area is clear. Then it will make the change for you. It also requires that once you change lanes you turn off the blinker. It will also only change one lane per indication. If you need to cross three lanes of traffic to exit an expressway it won’t do that in one blinker command. Still it is by far the best adaptive cruise control that I have ever used. No hands and no feet required. Well, actually you do get asked to place your hands on the wheel every so often. Probably to make sure you’re not sleeping.
Next off the expressway and into city traffic. Here the lane holding ability is not that great. It needs a supply of unending lane lines to know where it is. Curbs on the right or left and it can’t stay centered. Another place even if you are in a center lane where you have lines on either side is crossing an intersection. No lines on either side there. In these places you will need to steer the car yourself. But it does go from zero to the speed limit and back again very well. And if you you have a car in front of you it will play follow the leader for speed and distance. Including coming to a full stop and starting back up when the car in front starts moving.
If you are the first car at an intersection it won’t stop for a red light or go on a green light. Maybe one day but not yet. I wonder if when that happens it will know to move out of the way of an emergency vehicle? Elon?
This is where I noticed that the car didn’t have grab handles over the doors. Really Elon. That’s as bad as having left out the reading lights in earlier versions. Maybe in the next version instead of worrying about bioweapon level air handling or fancy doors you can add them. Cup holders? It now has cupholders. Weird ones. It might require some sit time in one trying to see if I like them or not.
Now it’s time to get back on the highway. We need a entrance ramp to test out that Tesla acceleration. We did use the software hack to dumb the acceleration rate down from the P90D to that of the base Model 75, as I said earlier I have already done the 0 to 60 in 3 seconds thing. It’s not required by a normal, sane person who uses logic to buy a car. To spend an extra $10-15k for something you will barely ever use or piss most everyone else off on the road when you do. The Spock in me says no. Even though Kirk always got the women. Actually most women aren’t turned on by guys in cool cars. Men are. Just ask Doug Demuro.
I can say that 0 to 65 in the Base Model 75 is plenty of speed getting on the expressway or having to pass most any common car.
The Tesla also drives very nicely. It handles as well or better than my Mazda 6 or a BMW and drives nothing like my Prius V. The Prius V has about as much soul a a washing machine. The Tesla is quiet. You can have a conversation and never have to raise your voice. I have no doubt the Tesla will save the lives of many pedestrians from their texting, talking, twittering, web surfing drivers. It might also save the lives of Tesla drivers from texting, talking, twittering, web surfing drivers that aren’t driving a Tesla.
It’s now time to exit the expressway and back to the showroom. The transition for autopilot to human and back is pretty unobtrusive. My son has enjoyed the half hour or so ride in the back seat spending part of his time texting, taking pictures and filming some of the drive.
We enter the parking lot where the spaces are tight and the lanes are narrow. And earlier I did say this is by design. It’s to show off another Tesla technology. Self parking. You pull just past the space where you want to park, very close to the side of the car. You put the car in reverse and tap the touch screen and the car will park itself. Magic. Only one problem. Again my fat ass doesn’t want to shimmy out the door between two parked cars. Easily solved. Pull forward and get out. Rub the key fob in just the right way and presto change-o, the car parks itself. Walk away and it shuts itself off and locks the doors. Did I say there is an app for that? It will even pre-heat or pre-cool the car before you get there.
Back inside Emily asks if I were to buy the car today what would i like in my perfect Tesla? We then go to the computer and see if there is anything currently in stock. And just like any other car dealer she is more than helpful showing me what they have and should I plan on buying, today would be a good day. Or if not today before the end of the month as there are certain specials and incentives ending shortly.
The big difference is they don’t hold you or your keys hostage. And I don’t think they offered me a bottle of water 20 different times. And she offered to email me if a car like the one that I really want happens to be built or shows up in the system for sale. I doubt it will as most of the demo cars they build are near the upper end of the price scale. They are also the ones with the bigger incentives off list price.
Also I wonder if paying $100k for a car that spartan compared to a Porsche Panamera E-hybrid, within a few thousand dollars is a better emotional decision. The Porsche is like having First Class seats in the cockpit of a Boeing 757 with the performance to match. The Tesla is like sitting in the cockpit of a Airbus 320. Including all the auto safety features and whiz bang electronics. Did I mention I fly an Airbus for a living?
After driving the Tesla we proceeded directly to the Chevrolet Dealer to look at a Bolt. To read that review Click Here.
I would definitely wait for a Tesla 3 before I bought a Bolt
And after that we went over to the Porsche dealer to look at a Panamera. That review has yet to be written.
My son, like most people who bought an EV this year are squarely in the Tesla camp. So far this year, the Tesla S has outsold the Panamera E almost 1000 to 1. Maybe that is why Porsche and almost every other luxury car maker is coming out with an electric car.
I am now going to list the pros of buying a Tesla.
Cutting edge technology that is updated often by incremental software advances without having to buy the newest model.
Contemporary styling.
Kids dig them. They aren’t hung up on horsepower and the growl of a gasoline engine. They don’t like the smell of napalm in the morning or fuel in the cabin.
Cons:
Cost. There are a lot of other things you can do with $1200 dollars a month for 3 years or more. Get 15 one hour massages a month. Buy a timeshare in Hawaii and spend a week a month there.
You could also buy a LG OLED Big Screen TV and watch a lot of youporn for just 3 months payments.
Now that will let me add one more pro I did not think of before. The Tesla comes standard with 3G LTE and that huge touchscreen in the center. You could watch youporn while letting the car drive you around during your commute everyday. Yes, it will allow the driver full access to anything while it’s driving.
So the next time you see a Red Tesla S driving in the HOV lane on I-10 in Phoenix with limo tint, now you know what the driver is doing inside. No wonder why the Tesla is such a popular car. We all know the internet was invented so people could get free porn. Now we know why the Tesla was invented. So we could watch porn on a big screen while driving to work. I finally found the only reason you can use to really justify spending six figures on a car. Porn.
There are still a lot of people that are afraid to buy an all electric car. It’s hard to blame them as most people think they need far more range than they actually do.
Sixty-one percent of drivers never drive more than 50 miles one way ever. Twenty-one percent never drive more than 200 miles one way. (https://ark-invest.com/research/electric-vehicles).
“About 8% of workers in the USA have commutes of an hour or longer, and nearly 600,000 full-time workers endure “megacommutes” of at least an hour-and-a-half and 50 miles, according to new U.S. Census data on commuting.
The national average, one-way daily commute is 25.5 minutes, and 4.3% of the nation’s workers work from home. The data is from the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey for 2011.” (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/03/05/americans-commutes-not-getting-longer/1963409/)
If the average commute is 26 minutes and the average speed in 60 MPH then the average one way commute is 26 miles or less. And it’s probably a lot less as many people spend much of their commutes in rush hour traffic. The real average commute is probably 20 miles or less.
Other than having a fantasy in their mind about, how could you possibly live with a car that has less than a 200 mile range and that you can’t drive cross country, most people would be fine with a car with an 80-120 miles of range. That is until the rise of plugin hybrids.
All the car magazines and shows encourage this fantasy as well. Well, as long as people think they need to drive 200 miles a day then let’s give them 200 miles, or better yet, 400 miles on a tank of gas with 15-20 miles of plug in charge range. That way they can drive 95% of the time using battery power and maybe 5% of the time on gas power. And that one or two weekends a year where they actually make that 200 mile spur of the moment trip (sarcasm) they don’t have to go rent a car for the trip.
And that’s where the Plugin Hybrid is a boon. 99% of the folks who buy them will spend most of the time on battery power. And it doesn’t hurt that they will spend 100% of it in the HOV lane. Especially is cities like Phoenix where you can’t pay to use it.
They can also plug in to a 110 outlet and be fully charged by the end of a ball game. No need for expensive installs of 220 dedicated chargers. 3 hours and your good to go.
So why are they a bane?
They take much of the limited public chargers. Pure BEV’s can’t charge when they really need it. When I first bought my Ford Focus EV 2 years ago the plugin hybrid was a unicorn.
I could go to work where there were 6 spots with Level 2 chargers and you might find 2 or 3 cars there. A couple Leafs and maybe a Tesla very now and then. Now 2 years later and you will rarely find one open space. And most if not all of the spaces have Volts, maybe a CMAX or two and maybe a Fusion. And the biggest problem is that almost half the cars are there for 3-4 days as a majority are pilots or Flight Attendants. That’s a lot of wasted charge potential. A level 2 charger can charge a Volt 3-5 hours from empty. What are the odds it’s empty when it gets there? Many of the other hybrids that only have a 15 mile range will charge ion half that time. They need charge cords that plug in on the lights in the parking lot. Not level 2 chargers.
Another place I go often, although not more than 2-3 times a month is 40 miles one way. It’s the Hockey Stadium. There are 2 free chargers there. Once again you’ll usually find the hybrids plugged in there as most of the BEV’s can’t take a chance that they don’t get to plug in. I sure as heck can’t. 80 highway miles in a Focus or even a Leaf isn’t going to happen even if you get to start out with a full charge.
If you drive a pure BEV that’s not a Tesla you probably have less than 80 miles of range. And while this is generally enough to get home and back from work, it’s not always enough to get home and back and then run a few errands on top of it.
If you drive a plugin because you want to clean up the environment and want others to do the same you are going to need to stop using public chargers. Just because you can or want as much free electricity as you can mooch. I’m sure that dollar a day your getting is going to make or break you.
Instead if you to get more people to follow your example you are going to need to be good stewards and let the folks who actually made the ultimate sacrifice and didn’t buy an insurance engine use those level 2 chargers.
Until more pure BEVs are sold no one is going to put large amounts of chargers out there. Not everyone out there has the vision of Elon Musk. Even GM says that they are all in on BEV’s but don’t think they need to build a charger infrastructure. And since their only BEV’s are either hybrids or have a 200 mile range why should they?
The Volt is outselling the Tesla S. And the Bolt isn’t that far behind. Pretty soon if you own a BEV with less than 200 miles of range you better hope you don’t need to charge on the road or at work.
Even Tesla’s dirty secret is that many of their chargers are ICED out a lot of the time.
The good news is there should lots of really cheap BEV’s hitting the used market here in the next year or two.
If you are like me have never used Lyft. Use the code DOGFOOD and get up to $20 off your first ride.
If you have never used Uber. Use the code Z4JRI for $20 off your first ride.
And if you still drive a car that has a Internal Combustion Engine make it more environmentally friendly by using Amsoil Synthetic Lubricants. For more information go to www.BDPSYN.com
Thanks for reading. Leave you comments below and make sure you share and like this post with your friends on Facebook and Twitter.
Back in Junior High I was a bit of an Alex Keaton (Michael J. Fox) from Family Ties. I wrote a report on how to invest in stock and why Tyco Labs was the place to invest. They had this great technology called a photovoltaic cell. Solar Energy was an idea whose time had finally arrived.
We had just been held hostage by OPEC and people had to wait in lines to buy gas, at was then, record prices of over a dollar a gallon.
Jimmy Carter had put solar panels on the White House to set an example of how we could start on our way to energy independence.
Then Ronald Reagan got elected. There was no way that in his America we were going to conserve. We drive big cars, heat and cool our houses to whatever extreme we want. We are a big and powerful nation and can afford to waste as much as we want. And for the next 30 plus years that’s exactly what we did. Only communists suffer shortages.
Bush gave tax breaks to people who bought Hummers. And lots of people did. You still see a few of them around today. But they don’t make them anymore. They went by the wayside when many American Automakers went bankrupt.
American Automakers also gave up a lot of marketshare to Japanese automakers in the 80’s. Because like most commodities that don’t have competition the price of gas just kept going up. And that drove people to buy the smaller, better built more fuel efficient imports.
But for those who study history we can often find examples of history repeating itself.
So lets go back just a few years. After a major recession the US elected one of those un-American leaders. The kind that doesn’t believe in American Supremacy and actually promoted the notion that once again Americans should conserve energy, invest in alternative energy and have a lofty goal of getting 1 million electric cars on the road in just a few years.
But the first order of business was bailing out American Automakers. Something Reagan did with Chrysler back in the 1980’s now had to be done again 30 years later. Because we forgot that gas can get pretty expensive and building lots of big cars that get crappy gas milage hurts the economy when gas hit’s $3 a gallon. And when the only cars on your lot don’t sell anymore bankruptcy is a given.
Well, the economy recovered because we have cheap gas once again. Or at least we perceive it as cheap because once you hit $3 a gallon $2 looks really cheap. Almost as cheap as $1 where gas hit at the height of the recession. I’ll bet if gas hits $3 now people will still perceive it as being pretty cheap.
So now after 8 years of that commie socialist we have once again elected a President who acknowledges the Supremacy of the United States of America.
His first order of business is to incentivize 19th century technology. Make coal great again. His second order of business was to make sure we can burn lots of fossil fuel. Keep it cheap so people can burn lots of it. There can’t be an iceberg hiding below the surface using that strategy. No,literally. All the icebergs are melting. Deny that this strategy has environmental consequences at all costs. Science is suspect. What do scientists know anyway.
And worst of all spreading the myth that restrictions on environmental pollution makes us uncompetitive in the world.
Trump is Reagan revisited. And I don’t mean that in a positive way.
This time the world is no longer looking for Americans to lead the way. We are way behind the power curve on implementing alternative energy.
Unlike the United States or China most of Europe and the UK does not have vast areas of unpopulated land mass. Most of France, Italy, Germany and the U.K. have lots of people in very small areas. Their pollution problems are like ours of California prior to Nixon and The EPA or those pesky California Emission Standards.
Other countries are actually investing in technology to get off of fossil fuels. German automakers that were first pushed by Tesla and further pushed by their own greed and cheating emission rules with their diesel cars are now going all out on developing Electric Vehicles. Add that to their growing supply of solar power and other countries are leading the way into the 21st Century. Not the U.S.A.
What are American Automakers doing? Building as many SUV’s and Pickup Trucks they can churn out. And that is pretty much a sign that although many Americans feel that the economy still sucks that it really doesn’t. Poor people don’t buy $70k Automobiles, or do they? Well poor people don’t, but having a $1k a month payment and another $150 or more a month going to Mobil or BP can sure as heck make you feel like your broke. Especially if you have 2 of these in your driveway. Let gas hit $3 or $4 a gallon again and it won’t take long before another recession hits.
Another fallacy is that regulations make products cost more. Well let’s go back to the 1980’s. Factories used to just dispose of certain waste from production, much of it in small particles like the sawdust from mills.
Well there was this company called Torrit Donaldson. You might know who they are. They make filters for your car among other things.
They would also design collection systems that collect sawdust among other things. Now instead of these particulates being dumped in the air and garbage they make particle board and other products from them.
Both the mill and the filter maker, make money. Long term results are better. That’s how jobs and new technologies get created. Not by doubling down on burning toxins. Too bad Wall Street doesn’t care beyond the next quarter
So is their a silver lining in this Trump cloud?
Well just like the 1980’s businesses will continue to look for ways to make more money and people will continue to ask for innovation.
Tesla proved that you can make a compelling Electric Car. Germany and the U.K. have proven that solar and wind are competitive with nuclear and coal when you factor in the external costs that we in the U.S. don’t account for.
The only real question is will politics get in the way of the U.S.A. becoming a leader or will be relegated to the position of follower?
Will American Car Makers once again, for the third time misjudge where the market is headed. Maybe that’s why Tesla has a higher market cap than Ford or G.M.
One that it really doesn’t deserve as Tesla makes less cars in a year than the other automakers make in a week.
If only there was a military reason to develop alternative energy. When the Russians were beating us in space we moved heaven and earth to get their first.
And much of the technology that got us into space is driving most of the technology we have today. It’s not like we hadn’t given the Germans the lead in technology before. It took a World War to give us the drive to outsmart them as well.
I doubt beating ISIS will require a new modern energy that was easy to deploy almost anywhere.
Actually now that I think about it. What if we dropped a few solar panels connected to a battery that could power a radio or two and maybe some type of modern convenience that we could broadcast the truth to every village or town where the electricity infrastructure has been bombed out?
You can’t make a sound financial argument for buying this car. It’s a $48k car before tax incentives. And since EV’s, especially plugin hybrids are finally becoming popular dealers aren’t even offering much in the way of discounts anymore.
So far the only EV I have been able to make a financial argument for is the Ford Focus EV. It’s also hard to make an environmental argument for a hybrid. Maybe in Europe it would be easier but not in the U.S.
Gas is still pretty cheap and we don’t have an excessive problem with pollution in our city centers. You don’t have to pay a pollution tax here and you aren’t going to see an EV only zone anytime soon like you will in the EU in the near future.
Now some more reasons you might not want a hybrid, plugin or not.
You still have an Internal Combustion Engine with all its required maintenance. Oil changes, spark plugs, belts, hoses and fuel tanks, gauges and pumps. What a hassle. . Then you have the electric motor. The most efficient part of the system. Then you have a transmission and all the controllers that tie the two motors together, It’s amazing they are as reliable as they are. It’s like a twin engine airplane. Way more expensive than it has to be and when one engine system fails it won’t necessarily save you. At least in the case of the hybrid you get better gas mileage, not worse.
Let’s compare it to a turboprop airplane. A jet engine that turns a propeller. More efficient than a jet for shorter trips at lower altitudes. Hybrids are more efficient in the city than on the highway. If most of your driving is on the highway you should either drive a diesel (this was written before VW Dieselgate), a high mileage ICE car or a pure EV with a range you can live with.
So now that I’ve told you what I don’t like about this car and hybrids in general why would I want to buy this car? Lets start with I hate my Prius V. Driving it is about as much fun as doing laundry. Is that reason enough? No, maybe not.
Back to the A3 eTron. It’s cute, it’s fun to drive and most of the time you drive it you won’t be using any gas. That is if your daily commute is less than 20 miles a day or you can plug in at work. My drive to work. 20.2 miles. I can charge at work. Did I say I only drive to work 1 or 2 days a week. The rest of the week I’m driving about 15-20 miles a day running errands and driving my son to and from school.
So what’s holding me back. The $50k price tag for a hybrid. Why wouldn’t I just buy a Chevy Bolt? I haven’t driven a Bolt yet but $40k for a Top of the line Bolt that has little if any of the comforts of a German car. That’s what. Even a Basic VW Golf has more style.
And there is one other really big thing holding me back from buying any current EV. The Tesla 3. Just the threat of the Tesla 3 has many automakers promising pure BEV’s that will have 200 miles of range and come in around $35k.
The big debate going on lately is should Tesla have told investors Tesla might be subject to a lawsuit from the death of a driver while driving a Tesla X using the “Autopilot” function.
If you read this reddit thread started by the author of the controversial Fortune article you would think that it does. But if you read down the author talks about how he owns a Prius V with adaptive cruise control (ADC). He loves it and would gladly buy a self driving car. Well, the Tesla is not a self driving car. I seriously doubt that Toyota is telling shareholders anytime a Prius with ADC has an accident. And having a Prius V with ADC my self,f if anyone actually believes that you can let the car always keep a safe distance, you learn very quickly, just like the folks driving Tesla’s you can’t.
First of all “autopilot” on Tesla cars is no more than a really great adaptive cruise control with lane keeping ability. They do a far far better job than my Prius does at not hitting cars ahead of you and can actually bring the car to a full stop unlike the Prius. But neither one will keep you safe. You still have to pay attention. If not, at best you’ll wreck a car or two. At worst you’ll kill someone.
Of the 20k plus miles I have put on the Prius, many using cruise control the car has accelerated towards stopped cars or failed to slow down before I thought it would be prudent to intervene many, many times. So many in fact that I only use it on the highway or city streets with light traffic.
Today I was in a situation where a driver decided he was in the wrong lane abruptly pulled out in front of me. He was slowed on the beginning of an exit ramp doing about 35 MPH. I was on the highway doing 65. He cut out in front of me causing me (not the car) to slam on the brakes nearly avoiding his back bumper.
He politely waved sorry to me with cellphone in hand. Maybe he had to go left instead of right to get Pokemon. All I could think is what an asshole and I was glad that the truck behind me was keeping a safe distance. Something that most people don’t do as the Prius will keep about 6 car lengths from the car ahead of you at highway speeds.
Now up until this point I have put autopilot in quotes. That sort of implies that autopilot as Tesla bills it is not really an autopilot. The problem here is most people don’t really understand what an autopilot is. I do. I use one every day I get in an Airbus 320 and fly across the country. My day job is as a pilot for a major airline. I am a Captain with Type Ratings in both Airbus and Boeing airplanes. Specifically the A320 and Boeing 737 families.
The Tesla is not a self driving car and airplanes do not fly themselves. Autopilots are used to reduce workloads. They do not allow you the luxury of not paying attention.
There are several levels of automation in an airplane just like in a car. In their simplest form they might just hold the airplanes heading and altitude. This is what’s known as a two axis autopilot. That’s what we had on the 737. The A320 has a three axis autopilot. That adds Yaw control. This function moves the rudder. Those are the basics.
Now lets add on the Flight Management and Guidance Computer (FMGC). This does much more. This is the system that allows you to program in a course and follow it. This interfaces with the autopilot. Think of it as adding GPS to lane keeping or steering.
We haven’t even gotten to the cruise control system or what’s known as auto throttle or auto thrust. . This function allows you the set a fixed (not distance from a plane in front of you) speed and keep it.
All these things combined are what most people think of as autopilot. Yet as a pilot we don’t really need any of these things to fly airplanes. They just make it a heck of a lot easier or safer.
But there are several things that all of these tools cant’t do. They won’t keep you from hitting a mountain, flying off the end of the runway, hitting another airplane in mid-flight or flying through a thunderstorm. All of those things require somethings that computers, at least today, can’t do, Make complex decisions that require human intervention.
There are warning system on airplanes that let the pilots know if they are about to hit a mountain or another airplane. There is weather radar. But none of these interact with the auto flight systems. So when you hear people say that modern airplanes pretty much fly themselves, they don’t. They still need pilots. At least two of them. If one dies or becomes incapacitated they aren’t going to drop in another pilot or a passenger isn’t going to land the plane. For that would require a lot more knowledge than you can learn in a couple of hours.
I’m not sure if you will see an airplane without pilots or a self driving car first but don’t make the mistake of thinking an “autopilot” will allow the operator to totally give up control of the vehicle.
You don’t want your pilot to be asleep at the wheel and you don’t want your driver to be asleep at the wheel either. That’s another reason there are two pilots on commercial airliners. It’s always ones job to FLY THE AIRPLANE. Autopilot on or not.
But I will tell you one thing. An airplane in flight is far more forgiving if the pilots are not paying attention than a driver on a road.
In cruise (at altitude) the closest airplane is going to be at least 5 miles away and 1000 feet above or below you. On the road you have cars within a few feet of each other going 70 MPH. In most big jets you have at least 2 pilots at the controls most of the time.
In an airplane I will get about 20-30 seconds to react if someone comes closer than they should. In a car you might have a few seconds if you’re lucky. Today if I hadn’t reacted immediately, I would have been in that guys back seat. I didn’t even hear the collision warning indicator go off. It felt like the car was never going to stop or slow down quick enough to not hit him. Braking distance in a Prius isn’t all that great.
Back to the Tesla accident. Maybe since the same guy who died had previously made a video of the car saving him he got far to comfortable with the technology. Maybe it works so well that people think it can do far more than it can.
Autopilot isn’t set it and forget it. And if you remember that you will be safer than any other driver on the road who doesn’t understand what autopilot can and can’t do.
Tesla’s stock might have taken a hit but their bottom line won’t. At least not because of this.
I’m all for more safety features in cars. I love backup cameras and sensors. I love blind spot warnings and many things available in the newest cars. I think all cars should have them. But none of these things should let the driver think they don’t have the responsibility to look.
Tesla may not have invented any of these things but they are making people aware of them and other manufactures have taken notice. Let’s not let this accident or any other accident hamper the advance of safety because some people are too complacent to use them properly.
These things will save lives. Look at how few planes crash now days.
It’s been a little over a month since the Tesla 3 was unveiled and I haven’t posted anything about it till today. Odd for a blog about electric vehicles. After all, Tesla is the EV by which all other EV’s are measured.
Well, for one thing the Tesla 3 is little more than a prototype, just like the Chevy Bolt. Neither car is in production or it’s final form. All we have seen of both is a body and and some basic interior shots. Neither of these cars floats my boat, yet.
But what I find interesting about both these cars is, that while neither is in production both are setting standards for what an EV has to be to appeal to a mass market. Or at least what people think they need to be able to appeal to a mass market.
Let’s look at the supposed needs to make this car appeal to more than just a few early adopters who run out and buy the latest product Apple has to offer.
A car with a range of 200 miles. Why 200 miles. Because that’s about the average range of a gas powered vehicle. The reality though is people don’t drive 200 miles a day. They drive 200 miles between fill ups. That could be 6 hours or 6 days. For most people that’s once or twice a week. Not daily.
Right now most EV’s have a range of 70 miles. 95% of the time that’s really enough. Most people with EV’s plug in every night. Ask your average EV’r and they will tell you they love never having to stop for gas and that the 70 miles they get is more than they need most of the time. While they have a second vehicle in the family the EV gets driven the most and the second car rarely gets used. The person who drives the least drives the ICE car. Maybe once a month it goes for that drive to the long weekend vacation. Maybe.
Currently there are several EV’s like the Ford Focus, Kia Soul and VW eGolf that can do this no problem and for less than $35k. And that brings us to the next holy grail number.
Priced less than $35k. Really, that’s the number that it takes to get people to run out in masse and buy an EV? I think not. That might kill sales of the BMW 3 Series or other German Cars in it’s class but it’s not going to kill sales of the average family sedan.
The average midsize sedan sells more cars in 2 months than BMW sells 3’s in a year. And they sell on average for a lot less than $35k. The top end is $35k. Not everyone buys the most expensive trim level. Most don’t.
The Tesla 3 and the Bolt and all the rest of the EV’s out there with the only exceptions being the Tesla S and X are all compact cars. Tesla 3 will most likely have an edge here as the 3 is on a compact frame but since it was built from the ground up as an EV it will make far better use of the space available.
And now lets talk about the real elephant in the room. Tesla can’t use sales of their big SUV’s and Pick Up Trucks to subsidize the sales of the 3. They will be selling a lot of CAFE credits to the other automakers but they can’t charge $80k for an Escalade and sell a Volt for $10k less than it costs to build. And since we know that very few 3’s are going to roll of the assembly line with zero options just like very few BMW’s roll of the assembly line with zero options just like a BMW 3 the average price of a Tesla 3 will likely top $50k.
Who want’s to drive a compact car cross country? Not me. I really don’t think that many people drive their Tesla’s across the country now. A few just to prove they could and get their video on youtube but really? The Tesla 3 and the rest of the EV’s out there are only going more than 100 miles in day when the person moves from one city to another. Or like my Ford Focus that needed to get from L.A. to Phoenix because it was cheaper and readily available in California.
There is another problem that all automakers are going to have with their EV’s. I don’t care if it’s Tesla, Honda, Nissan or Apple. Not everyone like the way a car looks. To me the Leaf isn’t cute or futuristic, it’s plain ugly. I like the Mazda 6 but I don’t like the way the Mazda 3 looks. Or should I say the Tesla 3 since the same guy designed the Mazda and the Tesla.
I do like the way the Ford Focus and the VW eGolf look. I’ll wait till they have t drop their price to sell their compliance cars that starting next year will get about 110 miles of range. More than enough for 99.9% of what I need.
Will they have autopilot? Probably not. If I want all the killer new tech I might just have to wait and see if Chevy really produces the Bolt in a configuration they have said they will launch with Lyft, the other car service. Maybe the Bolt will save Lyft, or the Lyft will produce a bigger market for the Bolt. I’m not sure how that will work or who it will help.
What I do know for sure is that EV’s are here to stay this time around. Tesla has forced Detroit to take them seriously this time around. People want cars that run on electricity and they want cars that can pretty much drive themselves while we text and read email or Facebook.
While Tesla has close to 400k people on an interest list that have ponied up $1k a piece for the privilege of standing in line hoping to get one they have lit a fire under GM and probably BMW and Mercedes to get their own versions out ASAP.
I have not put $1k on the line to hold my place. I’m counting on one of the other companies to get out there and compete against Tesla that has a dealer network and service centers near my house to get the job done first.
I’m actually betting Audi or VW might beat them to the punch.
I’m not counting Tesla out though. Tesla is going to sell a lot of cars. They are going to be the Apple of the auto industry. They are going to produce a specialty product that lots of people want and can be special for quite a while. They are going to disrupt the usual way of doing business selling cars over the next 20 years. Apple might even catch up to them or buy them one day.
But right now my purchase dollars are not with Tesla. But it took me till 2006 to dump my Windows computers. Now I’m all Apple. Maybe by 2026 I’ll be all in on Tesla. Just not today.
Will lower gas prices have a large effect on EV sales?
To a certain extent but there is a way that car makers could diminish the cheap gas advantage.
The Tesla has never been a car whose sales have been driven by high fuel prices. It’s appeal has been in performance and technology as well as status and muted luxury.
Anybody who has driven an EV loves the real world acceleration. By real world I mean 0-30. The burst of energy to change lanes or get on the freeway.
The average car takes much longer from a full stop to 30 MPH than an EV. From 30-60 it’s about the same time but the gasoline car spend from 30-60 catching up.
0-60 in 4 seconds is nice but in an ICE car that requires tens of thousands of dollars and an average MPG of around 12 MPG everyday to do that the very fews times you need that power. You just don’t need or can’t really enjoy your 700HP vehicle as much as you would like to.
Your 2 seat loud and obnoxious sports cars are the proverbial 12 inch penis. Impressive looking but not to many places that can handle all of it.
The only place cars like those have any use other than getting you a superficial mate are on the track. And they are actually more likely to get you tickets than they are a mate if you are not that good looking anyway that you need to buy the car to have women look at you.
Add to that most people with cars like that never take them to a track like many Jeep or 4×4 owners never take them off road and you have probably explained why most Americans think they are broke and don’t like to pay taxes.
Car makers have to stop only building tiny compact EV’s as well. While they might get the job done they aren’t impressive at all, don’t tell me that size doesn’t matter. Small might be able to fit in any parking spot but only the city dweller sees that as an advantage. We don’t live in Europe.
Most Americans don’t fit in a Smart EV or Fiat EV. We are large people. Many of us are over 6 feet tall and many are over 200 pounds. Or both. We need cars we fit in.
In order to get more people into the cars they need to be real world cars. The e-Golf and Mercedes B-Class are a nice start but they are still too expensive for only having 80 miles of range.
The new cars being announced with 200 mile ranges will start selling if you really build enough and sell them outside of the few CARB States.
They will outsell the Chevy Volt which still isn’t a 5 passenger car. The rear leg room is still to small. And the battery down the middle is just as bad as the Ford and their batteries across the truck or cargo bay. They will not find many new buyers. They will just keep many of the buyers they have. Unless they change to a flat battery pack under the floor.
The greatest thing about owning an EV, or even a Hybrid, is rarely or ever having to stop to buy gas. Even if the price of gas is $1 per gallon. The approximate equilibrium price of gas to electricity as fuel for cars.
It really is nice to come home at night and just plug in your car instead of having to wait in line and pump gas.
The worst part now about driving any car is filling up the gas tank. It’s rare that I ever get the gas station to myself. Then after waiting in line for 5-10 minutes, I have to get out, swipe my card and spend 5 minutes looking at the guy next to me that cut in front or committed some breach of gas station etiquette.
With an EV you just pull into the garage, plug in and walk into the house and go about your normal business. You wouldn’t even think of buying a phone where you had to go to the store and buy new batteries every few days. Then through the dead batteries on the street like the emissions form your tail pipe.
With the advent of the 100 mile plus battery, which is enough for most peoples daily commute, that will be shortly followed by the 200 mile battery, the plug it in at night car that can work for 100% of your daily driving needs will be all you really need.
Add to that, no more oil changes, tune ups and all those other regular maintenance items that an internal combustion engine car has and you will be hooked.
That doesn’t even included all the environmental benefits.
A 200 mile range, 5 seats and a price tag of $30k in a sporty car like a VW Golf or Kia Soul might just be what it takes to get this evolution in transportation to catch on.
It will be interesting to see how Tesla responds to these challengers that are now taking the 200 mile advantage away from Tesla.
I don’t think it will be long before my 12 year old son looks at driving a gasoline powered vehicle like he does someone smoking a cigarette. We know smoking is hazardous to your health and does cause cancer. The same thing is true of ICE vehicles.
We are just not willing to admit it yet as we love our cars.
The automakers are just starting to give us EV’s we can love.
Thanks Elon. You’re the guy who got this party started. Hopefully you keep leading the way and not letting the Big 3 kill the EV like G.M. did in the past.
I don’t think the big automakers are going to rest unless you stumble and fall.
I don’t think Apple and Google will really be a threat to the Big 3 like Tesla. For some reason you’ve got them really scared even though you only build less than 10’000 cars a month.
I might just have to buy Tesla stock now that it back down to the Moon instead of Mars, a place you want to go. Once the price comes back down to Earth people wont think your shooting for the stars.
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