Tag Archives: Prius

Tesla 3, will it kill BMW?

Not only no, but hell no.

Toyota introduced the first Prius in 1996. And it wasn’t sold in the U.S. till 2000. Most car makers didn’t take the Prius serious for years and even today offer very few hybrid and even fewer fully electric vehicles. And almost 20 years later the Prius or any hybrid aren’t sales leaders by any stretch of the imagination.

Even before the Prius G.M. built the EV1. And the promptly killed it 4 years later. It had a cult following but had G.M. kept it around I doubt it would have made much traction. It was a basic car with little luxury and of limited use. And for that same reason I bet the Bolt won’t do a whole lot better. Almost every other EV currently made or coming soon to a dealer near you are luxury cars. And we can thank Tesla for that. Even the Tesla 3 is going to be nice.

Tesla introduced the first Tesla, the Roadster in 2008 at the beginning of the worst economy since the Great Depression. In 2012 the Model S hit the streets and less than 5 years later luxury car makers have realized that they have lost a lot of sales to Tesla. Luxury six figure sales.

Once the Model 3 comes out BMW and Even Ford and Chevy are not going to lose many sales. Tesla won’t be able to keep up with the demand. As long as BMW, Mercedes and Porsche/Audi/VW, not a small company by any measure have far more capacity to build cars people want. They even have them within a year or two of being on showroom floors.

Tesla on the other hand is constrained by limited production capability. There is a site, teslanomics.com that has a Tesla 3 delivery estimator.

If you don’t already own a Tesla and don’t live in California and put down your $1k today you won’t see your car for 2 years.

Maybe the U.S. and Japanese carmakers will see that electric cars are not only here to stay but about to change the way we think about transportation.

2017 Audi A3 e-tron, I love it, maybe.

You can’t make a sound financial argument for buying this car. It’s a $48k car before tax incentives. And since EV’s, especially plugin hybrids are finally becoming popular dealers aren’t even offering much in the way of discounts anymore.

So far the only EV I have been able to make a financial argument for is the Ford Focus EV. It’s also hard to make an environmental argument for a hybrid. Maybe in Europe it would be easier but not in the U.S.

Gas is still pretty cheap and we don’t have an excessive problem with pollution in our city centers. You don’t have to pay a pollution tax here and you aren’t going to see an EV only zone anytime soon like you will in the EU in the near future.

Now some more reasons you might not want a hybrid, plugin or not.

You still have an Internal Combustion Engine with all its required maintenance. Oil changes, spark plugs, belts, hoses and fuel tanks, gauges and pumps. What a hassle. . Then you have the electric motor. The most efficient part of the system. Then you have a transmission and all the controllers that tie the two motors together, It’s amazing they are as reliable as they are. It’s like a twin engine airplane. Way more expensive than it has to be and when one engine system fails it won’t necessarily save you. At least in the case of the hybrid you get better gas mileage, not worse.

Let’s compare it to a turboprop  airplane. A jet engine that turns a propeller. More efficient than a jet for shorter trips at lower altitudes.  Hybrids are more efficient in the city than on the highway. If most of your driving is on the highway you should either drive a diesel (this was written before VW Dieselgate), a high mileage ICE car or a pure EV with a range you can live with.

So now that I’ve told you what I don’t like about this car and  hybrids in general why would I want to buy this car?  Lets start with I hate my Prius V. Driving it is about as much fun as doing laundry. Is that reason enough? No, maybe not.

Back to the A3 eTron. It’s cute, it’s fun to drive and most of the time you drive it you won’t be using any gas. That is if your daily commute is less than 20 miles a day or you can plug in at work. My drive to work. 20.2 miles. I can charge at work. Did I say I only drive to work 1 or 2 days a week. The rest of the week I’m driving about 15-20 miles a day running errands and driving my son to and from school.

So what’s holding me back. The $50k price tag for a hybrid. Why wouldn’t I just buy a Chevy Bolt? I haven’t driven a Bolt yet but $40k for a Top of the line Bolt that has little if any of the comforts of a German car. That’s what. Even a Basic VW Golf has more style.

And there is one other really big thing holding me back from buying any current EV. The Tesla 3. Just the threat of the Tesla 3 has many automakers promising pure BEV’s that will have 200 miles of range and come in around $35k.

Tesla Autopilot kills driver? No, it didn’t.

The big debate going on lately is should Tesla have told investors Tesla might be subject to a lawsuit from the death of a driver while driving a Tesla X using the “Autopilot” function.

If you read this reddit thread started by the author of the controversial Fortune article you would think that it does. But if you read down the author talks about how he owns a Prius V with adaptive cruise control (ADC). He loves it and would gladly buy a self driving car. Well, the Tesla is not a self driving car. I seriously doubt that Toyota is telling shareholders anytime a Prius with ADC has an accident. And having a Prius V with ADC my self,f if anyone actually believes that you can let the car always keep a safe distance, you learn very quickly, just like the folks driving Tesla’s you can’t.

First of all “autopilot” on Tesla cars is no more than a really great adaptive cruise control with lane keeping ability. They do a far far better job than my Prius does at not hitting cars ahead of you and can actually bring the car to a full stop unlike the Prius. But neither one will keep you safe. You still have to pay attention. If not, at best you’ll wreck a car or two. At worst you’ll kill someone.

Of the 20k plus miles I have put on the Prius, many using cruise control the car has accelerated towards stopped cars or failed to slow down before I thought it would be prudent to intervene many, many times. So many in fact that I only use it on the highway or city streets with light traffic.

Today I was in a situation where a driver decided he was in the wrong lane abruptly pulled out in front of me. He was slowed on the beginning of an exit ramp doing about 35 MPH. I was on the highway doing 65. He cut out in front of me causing me (not the car) to slam on the brakes nearly avoiding his back bumper.

He politely waved sorry to me with cellphone in hand. Maybe he had to go left instead of right to get Pokemon. All I could think is what an asshole and I was glad that the truck behind me was keeping a safe distance. Something that most people don’t do as the Prius will keep about 6 car lengths from the car ahead of you at highway speeds.

Now up until this point I have put autopilot in quotes. That sort of implies that autopilot as Tesla bills it is not really an autopilot. The problem here is most people don’t really understand what an autopilot is. I do. I use one every day I get in an Airbus 320 and fly across the country. My day job is as a pilot for a major airline. I am a Captain with Type Ratings in both Airbus and Boeing airplanes. Specifically the A320 and Boeing 737 families.

The Tesla is not a self driving car and airplanes do not fly themselves. Autopilots are used to reduce workloads. They do not allow you the luxury of not paying attention.

There are several levels of automation in an airplane just like in a car. In their simplest form they might just hold the airplanes heading and altitude. This is what’s known as a two axis autopilot. That’s what we had on the 737. The A320 has a three axis autopilot. That adds Yaw control. This function moves the rudder. Those are the basics.

Now lets add on the Flight Management and Guidance Computer (FMGC). This does much more. This is the system that allows you to program in a course and follow it. This interfaces with the autopilot. Think of it as adding GPS to lane keeping or steering.

We haven’t even gotten to the cruise control system or what’s known as auto throttle or auto thrust. . This function allows you the set a fixed (not distance from a plane in front of you) speed and keep it.

All these things combined are what most people think of as autopilot. Yet as a pilot we don’t really need any of these things to fly airplanes. They just make it a heck of a lot easier or safer.

But there are several things that all of these tools cant’t do. They won’t keep you from hitting a mountain, flying off the end of the runway, hitting another airplane in mid-flight or flying through a thunderstorm. All of those things require somethings that computers, at least today, can’t do, Make complex decisions that require human intervention.

There are warning system on airplanes that let the pilots know if they are about to hit a mountain or another airplane. There is weather radar. But none of these interact with the auto flight systems. So when you hear people say that modern airplanes pretty much fly themselves, they don’t. They still need pilots. At least two of them. If one dies or becomes incapacitated they aren’t going to drop in another pilot or a passenger isn’t going to land the plane. For that would require a lot more knowledge than you can learn in a couple of hours.

I’m not sure if you will see an airplane without pilots or a self driving car first but don’t make the mistake of thinking an “autopilot” will allow the operator to totally give up control of the vehicle.

You don’t want your pilot to be asleep at the wheel and you don’t want your driver to be asleep at the wheel either. That’s another reason there are two pilots on commercial airliners. It’s always ones job to FLY THE AIRPLANE. Autopilot on or not.

But I will tell you one thing. An airplane in flight is far more forgiving if the pilots are not paying attention than a driver on a road.

In cruise (at altitude) the closest airplane is going to be at least 5 miles away and 1000 feet above or below you. On the road you have cars within a few feet of each other going 70 MPH. In most big jets you have at least 2 pilots at the controls most of the time.

In an airplane I will get about 20-30 seconds to react if someone comes closer than they should. In a car you might have a few seconds if you’re lucky. Today if I hadn’t reacted immediately, I would have been in that guys back seat. I didn’t even hear the collision warning indicator go off. It felt like the car was never going to stop or slow down quick enough to not hit him. Braking distance in a Prius isn’t all that great.

Back to the Tesla accident. Maybe since the same guy who died had previously made a video of the car saving him he got far to comfortable with the technology. Maybe it works so well that people think it can do far more than it can.

Autopilot isn’t set it and forget it. And if you remember that you will be safer than any other driver on the road who doesn’t understand what autopilot can and can’t do.

Tesla’s stock might have taken a hit but their bottom line won’t. At least not because of this.

I’m all for more safety features in cars. I love backup cameras and sensors. I love blind spot warnings and many things available in the newest cars. I think all cars should have them. But none of these things should let the driver think they don’t have the responsibility to look.

Tesla may not have invented any of these things but they are making people aware of them and other manufactures have taken notice. Let’s not let this accident or any other accident hamper the advance of safety because some people are too complacent to use them properly.

These things will save lives. Look at how few planes crash now days.

 

Cult of Tesla (Motors)

In my last post I asked if Detroit should be worried about Tesla and the Tesla 3. I said that it would mostly effect the Germans and the BMW 3 series in particular.

Since I wrote that I have personally met 2 people that have put their money down to reserve a spot for a Tesla 3.

Oddly they are very much like me. They are not luxury car buyers. They don’t spend big bucks on status. They are Toyota and Honda buyers. They drive cars till they fall apart.

What else they have in common is they make 6 figure incomes. They would strongly fit in the category of the millionaire next door. They don’t show wealth, they have it.

Another thing they have in common is they embrace technology. They are the customers that Apple loves.

These are the same people that bought the second generation iPhone and iPad. The one that had shown some usefulness although not as much as today.

Why is this important? Quite frankly, the car doesn’t have to be perfect. The biggest complaint about the iPhone is that as a phone it sucks. Reliability is actually not all that great. Mostly because the network carriers that place the calls but there are bug fixes and software updates all the time.

Well, just like we have learned to tolerate less than perfect reliability from our phones we will allow the same annoyances from our cars. That is if the car is “special”. And the Tesla if anything is special.

Just look at Consumer Reports. In their initial tests the car broke the 100 point barrier. Yet when looking at long term reliability they can no longer recommend the car. Seriously?

You can’t really expect Tesla to compete with a Honda Civic or Toyota Camry. They are basically reliable transportation, but not much fun to drive. They are not as dull as driving a Prius or Yaris but there is no joy in flooring the accelerator on an entry ramp and reaching 60 MPH in 8-10 seconds.

The Tesla can have a few bugs and even need a trip or two to the Tesla version of the Genius Bar every now and then and people will still love it. As Consumer Reports bares out with there less than stellar reliability rating after the initial wow of 100 plus.

As long as the car performs the cool things fairly well people will tolerate a few bugs.

Driving an EV that can do 0-30 faster than almost any ICE car is pretty cool but having an EV that can do 0-60 in six seconds will make that trip to work just that much more fun. Then when you get on the highway having the car do most of the driving for you, how great is that.

Tesla is attacking 3 markets here, Luxury German small sedans, Japanese midsize sedans and Apple. Yes, Apple. This is where all your customers who buy the next upgrade are about to spend their dollars very soon. If Apple wants people to buy their watch they might want to start working on apps that interface with Tesla right away.

I predict that Tesla will follow the trajectory of Apple all the way to where Apple is today.

Apple like Microsoft will write software that runs in most brands of car. Tesla will produce the cars and the software that people who just want a solution that works, most of the time.

I used to build my own computers and spend hours experimenting with the latest modems and graphics cards. Then about 2006 I gave all that up and since I went Mac I never looked back.

My next car will probably be a Bolt or eGolf. My next car after that. A Tesla S when the price hits around $40k, maybe a second generation 3 when it hits $35k with all the bells and whistles.

Just this last year I stopped doing most of my own car repairs. With any luck brakes will be off my list of repairs as well.

I am looking forward to the day that auto mechanics wear lab coats and not overalls.

Coming form a guy who sells Synthetic Motor Oils that says a lot! Amsoil, the next best thing to being oil free.

 

Tesla Stock Down! Cheap Gas Kills EV Car Sales, or Does It?

Will lower gas prices have a large effect on EV sales?

To a certain extent but there is a way that car makers could diminish the cheap gas advantage.

The Tesla has never been a car whose sales have been driven by high fuel prices. It’s appeal has been in performance and technology as well as status and muted luxury.

Anybody who has driven an EV loves the real world acceleration. By real world I mean 0-30. The burst of energy to change lanes or get on the freeway.

The average car takes much longer from a full stop to 30 MPH than an EV. From 30-60 it’s about the same time but the gasoline car spend from 30-60 catching up.

0-60 in 4 seconds is nice but in an ICE car that requires tens of thousands of dollars and an average MPG of around 12 MPG everyday to do that the very fews times you need that power. You just don’t need or can’t really enjoy your 700HP vehicle as much as you would like to.

Your 2 seat loud and obnoxious sports cars are the proverbial 12 inch penis. Impressive looking but not to many places that can handle all of it.

The only place cars like those have any use other than getting you a superficial mate are on the track. And they are actually more likely to get you tickets than they are a mate if you are not that good looking anyway that you need to buy the car to have women look at you.

Add to that most people with cars like that never take them to a track like many Jeep or 4×4 owners never take them off road and you have probably explained why most Americans think they are broke and don’t like to pay taxes.

Car makers have to stop only building tiny compact EV’s as well. While they might get the job done they aren’t impressive at all, don’t tell me that size doesn’t matter. Small might be able to fit in any parking spot but only the city dweller sees that as an advantage.  We don’t live in Europe.

Most Americans don’t fit in a Smart EV or Fiat EV.  We are large people. Many of us are over 6 feet tall and many are over 200 pounds. Or both. We need cars we fit in.

In order to get more people into the cars they need to be real world cars. The e-Golf and Mercedes B-Class are a nice start but they are still too expensive for only having 80 miles of range.

The new cars being announced with 200 mile ranges will start selling if you really build enough and sell them outside of the few CARB States.

They will outsell the Chevy Volt which still isn’t a 5 passenger car. The rear leg room is still to small. And the battery down the middle is just as bad as the Ford and their batteries across the truck or cargo bay. They will not find many new buyers. They will just keep many of the buyers they have. Unless they change to a flat battery pack under the floor.

The greatest thing about owning an EV, or even a Hybrid,  is rarely or ever having to stop to buy gas. Even if the price of gas is $1 per gallon. The approximate equilibrium price of gas to electricity as fuel for cars.

It really is nice to come home at night and just plug in your car instead of having to wait in line and pump gas.

The worst part now about driving any car is filling up the gas tank. It’s rare that I ever get the gas station to myself. Then after waiting in line for 5-10 minutes, I have to get out, swipe my card and spend 5 minutes looking at the guy next to me that cut in front or committed some breach of gas station etiquette.

With an EV you just pull into the garage, plug in and walk into the house and go about your normal business. You wouldn’t even think of buying a phone where you had to go to the store and buy new batteries every few days. Then through the dead batteries on the street like the emissions form your tail pipe.

With the advent of the 100 mile plus battery, which is enough for most peoples daily commute, that will be shortly followed by the 200 mile battery, the plug it in at night car that can work for 100% of your daily driving needs will be all you really need.

Add to that, no more oil changes, tune ups and all those other regular maintenance items that an internal combustion engine car has and you will be hooked.

That doesn’t even included all the environmental benefits.

A 200 mile range, 5 seats and a price tag of $30k in a sporty car like a VW Golf or Kia Soul might just be what it takes to get this evolution in transportation to catch on.

It will be interesting to see how Tesla responds to these challengers that are now taking the 200 mile advantage away from Tesla.

I don’t think it will be long before my 12 year old son looks at driving a gasoline powered vehicle like he does someone smoking a cigarette. We know smoking is hazardous to your health and does cause cancer. The same thing is true of ICE vehicles.

We are just not willing to admit it yet as we love our cars.

The automakers are just starting to give us EV’s we can love.

Thanks Elon. You’re the guy who got this party started. Hopefully you keep leading the way and not letting the Big 3 kill the EV like G.M. did in the past.

I don’t think the big automakers are going to rest unless you stumble and fall.

I don’t think Apple and Google will really be a threat to the Big 3 like Tesla. For some reason you’ve got them really scared even though you only build less than 10’000 cars a month.

I might just have to buy Tesla stock now that it back down to the Moon instead of Mars, a place you want to go. Once the price comes back down to Earth people wont think your shooting for the stars.

 

 

 

 

Why a Tesla Should be your next car?

I was asked why I think a Tesla would be the EV to buy?

As many of you who have read my blog know I have a Ford Focus EV. I bought the Ford because it was the best overall EV for the price.

Yet it has it’s drawbacks. There isn’t a single Ford with a battery in it that was designed to have a battery in it. If you want either the Focus Electric or one of their PHEV’s, the battery takes up cargo space. In the Focus it takes up a lot of cargo space.

 

Ford Focus EV Cargo

 

 

The car also has a much wider turning radius than the ICE model Focus. You can’t make a u-turn on a normal two lane city street. You have to make a 3 point turn. Other than that it’s pretty much identical to the gas powered Focus with the SEL Trim Package. It has a real world range of about 75 miles.

Then you have the Mercedes B-Class EV. It’s a really nice looking car. Lots of room behind the back seats and the back seats fold down flat to create even more cargo space if needed. There is no battery in the way.

Mercedes B-Class EV Cargo Bay with Seats Flat.

 

This is a really a nice luxury EV that is not far off that $35k mark after the tax breaks. It has a pretty good real world range of about 85 miles. They actually designed the B-Class with using a battery for an energy source to begin with. Like the Tesla, the batteries lay flat under the cabin.

But then they go and screw things up by taking what is a really nice radar cruise control system and change the function of it. A radar cruise control should  keep your distance from the car in front of you and com to a complete stop if the car in front of you does. Instead if you start closing on the car in front to fast it applies the regenerative brakes so you don’t waste opportunity to recharge the battery by slowing down to quickly. That sounds like a great idea, right? Where they go wrong is now it won’t stop the car anymore if you are going to hit the car in front of you. I don’t know about you but I would much rather have a safer car than get that extra 2 or 3 miles from the regenerative brake system during a full charge.

There are also a few more compromises because while they did design this car with the batteries out of the way, they also designed it so they could use any of their powertrains. In Europe it is sold with both gas and diesel engines and they might also develop a fuel cell version.

The V.W. eGolf suffers from the same issues. While it accommodates the batteries without intrusion it doesn’t really have all the computer software and indicators that you want to see in a pure electric car.

This is where the Kia Soul EV actually has done a lot better job. But, yes their is a but. They take out the power seats. The top trim level has manual seats and very few of the new safety features available on most car today.

What all the companies out there have in common is that they compromise they EV’s to allow for different powertrains be they hybrid, Gas or Diesel. They are not betting the farm so to speak or going all in on Electric. Tesla is.

There is one automaker that has bet a lot on the EV, Nissan. Yet they have also made compromises. Unlike Tesla they decided that they would try to design an affordable EV from day one. It was really anything but affordable in the beginning and didn’t really get much traction until they offered the car at a sub $200 a month lease rate. Something that is starting to hurt them now as many people reach the end of their leases.

Nissan also suffers from the car being pretty ugly, fairly modest if not downright utilitarian as well as having bumps in the cargo bay.

Just like when the Prius started out you really had to want to be an early adopter.  I do find it interesting that now that the Prius has been on the market now for 15 years and within the last 3-5 years all of a sudden all the other car makers are coming out with some version of a hybrid car. And a handful after the slight and I say slight success of the Chevy Volt are now experimenting with Plugin In Hybrid cars. Most of the EV’s out there today are still nothing but compliance cars. Cars that allow them to keep making Internal Combustion Engine (I.C.E.) cars.

On the other hand you have Tesla. They first proved the concept with the Tesla Roadster. They proved a car could go 200 miles on a single charge and be fun to drive.

Their next car was the Tesla S. A car that was designed from a clean sheet of paper. No hedging their bets by having an ICE version. While it’s not a car for the mass market it is arguably one of the most successful cars in it’s price range. It’s also a car that is in the top safety, speed and has the most satisfied buyers of any car out there.

After the S we now have the X, the next car in the evolution. Also a very expensive car. Yet it does more than any other car in it’s class. I’m not sure there is any other car in it’s class.

But here are the reasons I really think Tesla is going to be the first to the really affordable car that everybody will want to buy.

They are now hard at work building the Tesla 3. A car that may have a 200 mile range. Seat 4-5. Actually carry some cargo much like the Mercedes B-Class or VW eGolf.

It will hands down have the least compromises with the greatest utility and look good doing it.

They will also have access to the Tesla Supercharger network. This is no small amenity. Even if GM or BMW builds a 200 mile car those batteries aren’t going to charge overnight in the average persons garage. Today an average pure EV battery is in the 24kWh range. With a 220 charger that takes about 5-8 hours. With a 110 it takes 15-20 hours.

Now double or triple the size of the battery and you need to double or triple the time it takes to charge. The only company that has the infrastructure in place to take advantage of a battery that size is Tesla. The only company that will allow you to take that car cross country is Tesla.

And while the eGolf or the B-Class Mercedes have enough range and luxury for most people and will also sell in that 35k price range they probably won’t be as desirable.

Many of you may have noticed I haven’t mentioned the BMW i3 yet. BMW did design the i3 from the ground up with the EV powertrain from day one. Yet they still have hedged their bet by offering a gas engine to extend the range. It’s either a work of art or really ugly. It’s really small and is really a two door car. And like every other BMW there is a big jump in price from the base model to the one that has all they toys you really want. For about the same price I would rather own the Mercedes B Class.

I don’t want a car that screams look at me. If I did I’d buy a Mustang or Corvette.

I don’t want a hybrid. They no longer get you in the HOV lane and are more utilitarian to drive than fun. Yeah, they get 40-50 MPG but the Mazda 6 gets 40 MPG on the highway and doesn’t suffer from being boring. Actually if you drive a lot on the highway hybrids might do worse than a Mazda 6. I know my Prius V does worse on highway trips. And around the city that extra 12 mpg isn’t really worth $10k more for the car.

I don’t want a plug in hybrid because the whole reason for an electric car is to eliminate waste and pollution. I don’t want a muffler, pistons and a fuel tank. I like never having to go to a gas station unless I have to stop and pee or need a 64 ounce drink.

And I really don’t want a Chevy Bolt. Smart Car or iMev. These cars are jokes. They aren’t even cute. To me they scream Bill Nye the science guy or Ed Begley Jr. They might be nice guys and I applaud their efforts to reduce pollution but, these are not two guys who inspire confidence or success.

There are a couple other things that make me think Tesla might just have what it takes to compete long term.

The evolution of Tesla is very much like the evolution of the Cell Phone. The supercharger network is very much like the evolution of the cell phone network by design. And the Tesla philosophy is very much like that of Apple and the iPhone.

I think every other car maker is going to be like all the other manufacturers who make Android Phones. Except they won’t have a cohesive infrastructure to support them. If they are going to rely on others to set up their charging networks they will fail. The average EV user, rarely if ever, charges anywhere but home or work and mostly at home.

That’s because the average driver rarely ever drives more than 50 miles a day. Only once in a while do they ever take that road trip everybody talks about that you need a 200-300 mile range.

And most smart people either fly or rent a car when going really long distances. If you breakdown in a rental you call the company and get a new car.

Rental companies make their money on people who rent cars locally. The people they know are only going to drive less than 50 miles in a day. You know, like the person who should really be driving an electric car. The person like you or me.

 

 

 

 

 

 

What if everyone started using electric cars?

In the U.S.A., what would happen if everybody started driving electric cars?

About 9 million fewer barrels of oil would be used each day.
If you  have a car that gets 28MPG and drive it 10k miles per year, you would use just over 300 gallons of gas and produce 5.6k  pounds of CO2.
My Ford Focus Electric gets about 4 miles to a kWh. The worst coal produces 2.17 pounds of CO2 per kWh. So 10k miles per year produces 5.4k pounds of CO2.
So whats the big deal? Looks like a wash, right? No. It takes about 6kWh to distill one gallon of gas. So burning the coal to produce one gallon of gas produces about 13 pounds of CO2. Multiply that by 300 gallons of gas and you get another 3.9k of CO2 a year just making the 300 gallons of gas.
So by eliminating the gas engine and the process of refining oil into gas, you eliminate a duplication of effort and excess CO2 production.
You also eliminate the extra toxic pollution from burning gas, and the production of gas produces all kinds of toxic substances on top of the toxins burning coal produces.
Produce the electricity with natural gas and you get less CO2, but, there are  still many bad side effects in the production of natural gas. Fracking uses lots of clean water and turns it into toxic water.
Produce the electricity with solar or wind and get rid of all the by-products of combustion of fossil fuels. Then the only pollution is from making the solar panels or generators.
Lets also take a look at how gasoline gets to market.
Oil is extracted from the earth and transported long distances by ship or pipeline. By ship requires burning more fuel to move the oil over long distances.
Once the oil is refined, it gets put on a tanker or pipeline again, to get to it’s next destination. More fuel is burned for transportation. And all along the way there are many opportunities for leaks and spills. That doesn’t even include the potential leaks, spills and disasters at the point of extraction. The Gulf of Mexico, Exxon Valdez, waste from tar sands piling up on the south side of Chicago. The list goes on and on.
Most Americans have electricity in their home. Most Americans drive less than 50 miles per day. All they would need to do is plug in their cars at home each night like they plug in their Smartphones. You don’t need to add a huge new infrastructure like you would for hydrogen.
If every car in the USA were electric we would use 374 million less gallons of gas per day. That’s 811 million less pounds of CO2. Wait, we figured that the CO2 burned in gas was close to the same amount used to produce the electricity needed by burning coal. OK, that’s a wash.
But, if it takes 6kWh to produce 1 gallon of gas and 2.17 pounds of CO2 is produced per kWh then the amount of CO2 produced is actually 6 times 2.17 or 13 pounds of CO2 produced or 13 times 374 million gallons of gas. Thats 4,862,000,000 more pounds per year of CO2 than our hypothetical all EV Nation needs. That’s a massive difference.
What else could go along with that. No oil changes. No air filters. No spark plugs. Fewer brake pads. That’s just a few benefits. No pollution controls needed on an electric car. No emissions inspections. I’m sure you could find a few more.
So lets sum it up.
Air polution, less.
Water pollution, less.
Noise pollution, less.
Oil Spills, less.
Carbon Monoxide deaths, less.
Burn Victims, less.
Lower Hospital Costs.
Fewer wars? Probably not?
Where’s the down side? Fewer gas stations? High School kids can’t put sugar in the gas tank of their  ex-girlfriend?
Next year almost every carmaker has at least one if not more hybrids that can actually run on electric 90% of the time.
If you can afford a car that is partly or fully electric you should buy one.
It’s time to actually conserve the resources we have.
It’s time to stop polluting our air and water.
This is not a political issue anymore. It is a financial issue. It’s cheaper to burn coal to make electricity to drive a car than to make fuel to drive a car.
It’s cheaper to  drive an electric car than pay for hospital costs for people with diseases related to air pollution or water pollution.
If you want make solar panels and wind power the political issue, go for it. It is still 3 times the cost of coal if you don’t price in the pollution and medical costs caused by coal. We are maybe 3-5 years away from cost parity with coal.
We are probably 3-5 years away from your next car being electric as well.
Maybe it’s time for electric companies to embrace people putting solar on their roofs instead of fighting it. But that’s a subject for another post.

Mazda MX-5 ND or Tesla X?

With the release of the new Tesla X why a I writing about the lowly gas powered Mazda MX-5 also known as the Miata?

Well, today I attended a Ride and Drive that Mazda invited me to. I’m not sure how I got on the list but since I own a 1999 Miata and a Mazda 6 as well as having  owned a 2011 Miata the odds are pretty good I’m on a mailing list somewhere.

The event was not well attended. In the 2 days and 12 hours they had about 160 people according to a couple of the employees I asked. BMW gets almost 10 times that number at their Ride and Drive events.

That could be because BMW lets people drive all their cars. The MX-5 has a small but very loyal following.

But the reason I am writing this isn’t because I think the Miata is a great car. It is. What it isn’t is an Electric Car.

Since I have owned my Ford Focus Electric car I am pretty much spoiled. EV’s are a just more fun. If what you want is instant performance and a fun driving experience you really need to go out and test drive one of the many Electric Vehicles out there.

Not a Hybrid like the Prius or Honda Accord where the electric motor is an afterthought but a car where the electric motor is the primary source of power. One where the gas motor, if it has one charges the batteries and you get all that instant torque.

There are quite a few today and many being added in the near future.

While most of us mortals can’t afford a Tesla and it’s Insane Mode along with its insane price there are many EV’s now days for less than 30k and even lest than 25k after tax breaks.

Walk in to your Chevy Dealer and try the Volt. Don’t like Chevrolet. Ford has the C-Max and Fusion Energy as well as the all electric Focus.

BMW. The i8 and i3.

While Volkswagen might not be trustworthy with their diesel technology they do have the eGolf. Maybe they will release their hybrid Golf in the States soon now that they can’t sell their diesels.

In the next few years even with cheap gas people will learn that electric cars are fun. They have lower costs to maintain and 90% of the time you will never burn gas in the Extended Range models.

If you are in the market for a new car give one a try. If you are in the market for a used car many are now hitting the used market and at ver reasonable prices.

Don’t try one because they are the environmentally responsible option. Try one because they are fun. Lots of fun. So much fun I have a Mazda for sale. Maybe two.

My next car will be a Telsa 3, That is unless there is another car make that can make an electric car I really like. Something like a Mazda 6 even a eGolf with a 200 mile range with a 35k or less price tag. At that price I wouldn’t even need a tax break. Just those HOV Plates.

 

Volt headed for the dustbin of automotive history?

“The Chevrolet Volt, meanwhile, seems headed to the dustbin of automotive history, like GM’s original EV-1 and the entire Saturn division.” At least that’s what Alex Taylor, III of Fortune Magazine says. To read the entire article Click Here.

Actually I think he has that part all wrong. While the volt is heavy and slow and pretty much everything else he says about the car, it’s not going away anytime soon as long as GM doesn’t get cold feet.

Yes they stopped making the old Volt and have reduced prices to sell what they have left. That’s what technology companies do. And the Volt is technology as much as it is car.

But where the next Volt will succeed, it will not be in beating out the Tesla, because sorry folks, it’s no Tesla. What it is, a Prius Killer. That’s right, you heard it here first. Why spend $30k for a Prius Plug In that can go a whopping (sarcasm) 11 miles on the battery before you need to plug back in. And then it gets the same gas milage as a regular Prius, about 50 MPG.

The 2015 Volt gets 38 all electric miles while the 2016 is projected to get 50 miles on a single charge. That’s enough so most people will rarely if ever put gas in it. I should know. I currently drive a Ford Focus EV and rarely do I drive more than 50 miles in a day and I hardly ever drive more than the average 80 mile range.

Sorry but Toyota better watch out. And Tesla, they aren’t even in the sub $50k market, at least not yet.

This is a place where thanks to Tesla American Car Manufactures have the potential to really shine.

Toyota is betting that Hydrogen is the next big thing. Wrong. That’s why the Prius doesn’t get better, only bigger (Prius V) and Smaller (Prius C). They gave up on the Rav 4 EV. A car loved by almost everybody that has one. I know 3 people that have them. Sadly that’s actually a lot of people to know with an electric car. Two of them cut their EV teeth with a Nissan Leaf and one still has his.

The Prius is pretty much everything Alex Taylor, III says about the Volt. Heavy, drives like a washing machine. My mother has a Prius. I like riding in the back seat a lot more than I like driving it. Maybe that’s why cabbies or at least their passengers like them. (Edit) And as one person who read my post stated. The Volt is very responsive from 0-30 MPH. Actually most EV’s are. It’s fun to beat most cars from 0 to the posted speed limit of 45 or less. Be careful though.  You would be surprised how many kids in a Camaro or Mustang don’t like that.

By the way, I said the Prius was slow and heavy, Alex Taylor, III said the Volt was slow and heavy.

Tesla will continue to build the “BMW” of electric cars, at least as long as BMW keeps building half ass EV’s like the i8 and i3. Cool but not Tesla cool. Both way to expensive for mere mortals.

The Ford Focus EV is the only real EV Ford makes and it’s just a compliance car. Try to buy one out of a Compliance State and you will come up empty. The rest of the Fords are just Hybrids and Plug Ins and no better than Toyota. They need to redesign the Focus so the batteries don’t take up all the cargo space. Maybe they should ask Tesla for some help. The battery pack, the rear view mirror (needs HomeLink) and no moonroof are my only complaints. And that’s only because when my son farts in the car I have to roll down the windows to get fresh air.

Sorry Alex, The Volt is a great car technologically and is getting better in the next model. Greater range, both gas and electric. 5 seats instead of 4 and some more advanced driving safety options as well.

And, I almost forgot the best part. The price. It’s going to have a sub 30k price tag after the tax credit. That puts it smack dab in Prius territory. If you have ever talked to a Volt owner they rarely ever use the gas engine.

Right now I own one American Car. The Focus EV. While it’s heavy it’s actually fun to drive.  If the Volt handles as well and is as nice inside as my 2015 Mazda 6 I will without a doubt consider putting the Mazda to the curb and I love the car. It is everything Car and Driver says it is. Actually it would be really nice if it could have a Tesla conversion. Elon? The Volt may just do it. Make me want to sell my Mazda.

Then the only car to get rid of is the Honda Pilot my wife drives. The 18MPG wonder. With gas prices headed back up and global warming becoming more of a reality every day Honda better hope Elon doesn’t figure out how to make a sub $50k SUV.

Americans may have finally figured it out. Nissan may be the Japanese’s best and only hope. They have sold the most EV’s of anyone. And they are actually really good as well. They are just to expensive still.

The Volt is here to stay. If not we will be stuck with Pri-i. Is that what you call more than one Prius?

Remember when the German’s bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

Boy was I wrong says the USA Today

The other day I posted about how Americans wont be fooled again, buying gas guzzling SUV’s because fuel prices are at a relative historic low, as are wages.

But instead of being proven right I read an article just days later that we are not buying hybrids or high gas milage vehicles but once again the sales of SUV’s are on the rise in the  April 22 USA Today “Earth Day or not, hybrids take a hit”.

The article states that many electric or hybrid owners are less likely to trade their current vehicles in for another hybrid but would get an SUV instead.

The article goes on to say that “For better or worse, it looks like many hybrid and EV owners are driven more by financial motives rather than a responsibility to the environment,” says edmunds.com Director of Industry Analysis.

Although the impact on the environment does have a cost though we choose not to quantify it. It’s an unaccounted for externality that makes the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicles look cheaper than they actually are.

I question who the sample size or who these vehicle owners are.  Just a look around the streets and highways of Phoenix, Arizona (where I live) you will see lots of hybrids. And many of those are older cars from the first generation Prius as well.

From the looks of things, hybrid owners don’t replace their cars that often. In the last year, as well, I have seen many new model (2014+) hybrids on the road. My mother just bought one, a 2015 Prius V. So in my opinion, any car company that forgoes hybrids and BEV’s or PHEV’s and builds lots of SUV’s is doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past that allowed Japanese car makers to take much of the US market share that they retain to this day.

As long as car makers let fuel prices decide what they build instead of sound long term strategies the shortsighted idea of current fuel prices staying low forever will lead car makers off the cliff of bankruptcy over and over.

Efficient cars should lead fuel prices lower instead of low fuel prices leading to cars that consume more fuel which has historically lead to higher fuel prices.

Innovation leads to success. Henry Ford was an auto industry innovator. Maybe the last one. Why? Because many of the innovations of the auto industry in the last 50 years were forced on them by regulation. Seat Belts, MPG requirements just to name a couple biggies. For the most part the auto industry is like your grand parents. Dragged into the next century kicking and screaming if they don’t die first.

The article also states that GM has temporarily halted production of the Volt. Well, considering they announced that next year they will have the Volt 2.0 that’s going to be significantly better, who’s going to pay full price for last years technology. They might as well keep dropping the price till the last buyer wants it so cheap it makes more sense to donate them to a charity for the tax break.

People who can pay full price for an iPhone don’t go running out once the timeframe for the new iPhone is near. Which is why Steve Jobs kept the next big thing a big secret till it was ready for sale.

And while car dealers give rebates and incentives on last years model all the time cars like the Volt will be much more sensitive to new model announcements. Many of the people buying these cars want the latest and greatest tech. This will also become more common on all cars as things like blind spot monitoring, adaptive cruise control and a host of many other technologies become more prevalent in cars of all trim levels.

The USA Today article also talks about dismal sales of Plug in Toyota hybrids being down 61%. That might have something to do with the fact that it’s hard to find one on a dealers lot if you don’t live in a CARB State.

Toyota only sold their Rav4 EV in California. Yet I personally know 3 people who bought one and brought it back to Arizona. They love that SUV. Even though it’s sort of a bastardized RAV4.

Honda only sold their Fit EV in AZ for a very short time and then only leased them. And then discontinued making then shortly there after.

I’m not sure car dealers like EV’s much, especially BEV’s as they require so little maintenance. A large profit center for dealers.

When I was car shopping with my mother earlier this year their were no plug in Prius’s to be found in Arizona. How can someone buy one when dealers don’t have them to sell?

And when I went shopping for my Ford Focus Electric (FFE), you couldn’t find any of those in Arizona either. At least  The dealers sold them all 20 minutes after they hit the lot. I had to go to California to buy mine. And the economics made sense. And they still make sense as gas prices are actually 15% higher than the day I bought it. The price of gas would have to go to 70 cents a gallon to equal the price of electricity per mile. And since most of the electricity produced at night is from nuclear the amount of carbon per mile is much lower.

The tags in AZ for the equivalent Ford Focus are $500 for the first year. The cost of the tags for my Focus, $60 for 5 years. Access to the HOV lane. I would say you can’t put a price on that but you actually can. There are people who can no longer get a HOV access plate with a new hybrid car who are leasing plates from prior Prius owners for $1000 per year.

If people are buying SUV’s and trading in their hybrids it has nothing to do with the economics. It has more to do with the emotions.

Hybrids for the most part are pretty boring and very utilitarian. The Toyota Prius does make a great Taxicab though. It has a very large back seat with lots of legroom.

The fact that hybrids are so boring is why Tesla is so successful. Their cars, while quite expensive are actually fun to drive. They don’t handle like a box truck. They aren’t the bottom of the line trim levels. But the VW Golf E, The Kia Soul E and Ford Focus E are actually very nice cars as well and at the top trim levels can be had for less than 30k after the tax credit.

Had Ford not dropped the price of the FFE to 32k and the dealer not also dropped another 2k off the price I would have probably bought a Volkswagen Golf Electric. Another car maker who chose to go top of the line trim instead of bottom of the line trim. Just like the FFE. That’s what swayed me away from the Leaf. In order to have the price make sense the only Leaf would have been the S or bottom trim level.

One other thing car makers need to do, not just in their EV vehicles but all vehicles is stop selling expensive Nav packages with old useless tech. Almost everybody today has a smartphone. All they need to do is put the necessary interfaces for people to use their smartphones. At least Tesla chose to make their tech an improvement on current display tech vs using 3 or 4 year old tech in the average new car.

Like 15 or 20 years ago nobody new they wanted let alone needed a smartphone and that they would become as ubiquitous as watches were just 20-70 years ago. In 10-20 years the Electric Vehicle that primarily drives itself, will be the new iPhone. All it takes is some leadership and vision from an industry that has a dismal track record of predicting the future.

Elon Musk will be seen as the next Steve Jobs but just like Apple it took companies like Google, Samsung and LG to join in on the road to the future we now know. Maybe it’s time those companies take their huge stockpiles of cash and start building cars while the current car companies fade into the sunset and stop perpetuating the myth that bring hydrocarbons is good for the planet.

While GM got it’s bailout, like Chrysler before it, this will probably not be the last time we see a big automaker in need of a financial lifeline. It’s time they stopped being pretending to be experts. The last thing they need to do is build the next Hummer. If they can’t lead they need to follow or just get the hell out of the way.

This time if we support innovators with the bailout money instead we can transform our society into the future sooner rather than later.