Tag Archives: Totota

Tesla 3, Should Detroit be scared?

It’s been a little over a month since the Tesla 3 was unveiled and I haven’t posted anything about it till today. Odd for a blog about electric vehicles. After all, Tesla is the EV by which all other EV’s are measured.

Well, for one thing the Tesla 3 is little more than a prototype, just like the Chevy Bolt. Neither car is in production or it’s final form. All we have seen of both is a body and and some basic interior shots. Neither of these cars floats my boat, yet.

But what I find interesting about both these cars is, that while neither is in production both are setting standards for what an EV has to be to appeal to a mass market. Or at least what people think they need to be able to appeal to a mass market.

Let’s look at the supposed needs to make this car appeal to more than just a few early adopters who run out and buy the latest product Apple has to offer.

A car with a range of 200 miles. Why 200 miles. Because that’s about the average range of a gas powered vehicle. The reality though is people don’t drive 200 miles a day. They drive 200 miles between fill ups. That could be 6 hours or 6 days. For most people that’s once or twice a week. Not daily.

Right now most EV’s have a range of 70 miles. 95% of the time that’s really enough. Most people with EV’s plug in every night. Ask your average EV’r and they will tell you they love never having to stop for gas and that the 70 miles they get is more than they need most of the time. While they have a second vehicle in the family the EV gets driven the most and the second car rarely gets used. The person who drives the least drives the ICE car. Maybe once a month it goes for that drive to the long weekend vacation. Maybe.

Currently there are several EV’s like the Ford Focus, Kia Soul and VW eGolf that can do this no problem and for less than $35k. And that brings us to the next holy grail number.

Priced less than $35k. Really, that’s the number that it takes to get people to run out in masse and buy an EV? I think not. That might kill sales of the BMW 3 Series or other German Cars in it’s class but it’s not going to kill sales of the average family sedan.

The average midsize sedan sells more cars in 2 months than BMW sells 3’s in a year. And they sell on average for a lot less than $35k. The top end is $35k. Not everyone buys the most expensive trim level. Most don’t.

The Tesla 3 and the Bolt and all the rest of the EV’s out there with the only exceptions being the Tesla S and X are all compact cars. Tesla 3 will most likely have an edge here as the 3 is on a compact frame but since it was built from the ground up as an EV it will make far better use of the space available.

And now lets talk about the real elephant in the room. Tesla can’t use sales of their big SUV’s and Pick Up Trucks to subsidize the sales of the 3. They will be selling a lot of CAFE credits to the other automakers but they can’t charge $80k for an Escalade and sell a Volt for $10k less than it costs to build. And since we know that very few 3’s are going to roll of the assembly line with zero options just like very few BMW’s roll of the assembly line with zero options just like a BMW 3 the average price of a Tesla 3 will likely top $50k.

Who want’s to drive a compact car cross country? Not me. I really don’t think that many people drive their Tesla’s across the country now. A few just to prove they could and get their video on youtube but really? The Tesla 3 and the rest of the EV’s out there are only going more than 100 miles in day when the person moves from one city to another. Or like my Ford Focus that needed to get from L.A. to Phoenix because it was cheaper and readily available in California.

There is another problem that all automakers are going to have with their EV’s. I don’t care if it’s Tesla, Honda, Nissan or Apple. Not everyone like the way a car looks. To me the Leaf isn’t cute or futuristic, it’s plain ugly. I like the Mazda 6 but I don’t like the way the Mazda 3 looks. Or should I say the Tesla 3 since the same guy designed the Mazda and the Tesla.

I do like the way the Ford Focus and the VW eGolf look. I’ll wait till they have t drop their price to sell their compliance cars that starting next year will get about 110 miles of range. More than enough for 99.9% of what I need.

Will they have autopilot? Probably not. If I want all the killer new tech I might just have to wait and see if Chevy really produces the Bolt in a configuration they have said they will launch with Lyft, the other car service. Maybe the Bolt will save Lyft, or the Lyft will produce a bigger market for the Bolt. I’m not sure how that will work or who it will help.

What I do know for sure is that EV’s are here to stay this time around. Tesla has forced Detroit to take them seriously this time around. People want cars that run on electricity and they want cars that can pretty much drive themselves while we text and read email or Facebook.

While Tesla has close to 400k people on an interest list that have ponied up $1k a piece for the privilege of standing in line hoping to get one they have lit a fire under GM and probably BMW and Mercedes to get their own versions out ASAP.

I have not put $1k on the line to hold my place. I’m counting on one of the other companies to get out there and compete against Tesla that has a dealer network and service centers near my house to get the job done first.

I’m actually betting Audi or VW might beat them to the punch.

I’m not counting Tesla out though. Tesla is going to sell a lot of cars. They are going to be the Apple of the auto industry. They are going to produce a specialty product that lots of people want and can be special for quite a while. They are going to disrupt the usual way of doing business selling cars over the next 20 years. Apple might even catch up to them or buy them one day.

But right now my purchase dollars are not with Tesla. But it took me till 2006 to dump my Windows computers. Now I’m all Apple. Maybe by 2026 I’ll be all in on Tesla. Just not today.

 

Mazda MX-5 ND or Tesla X?

With the release of the new Tesla X why a I writing about the lowly gas powered Mazda MX-5 also known as the Miata?

Well, today I attended a Ride and Drive that Mazda invited me to. I’m not sure how I got on the list but since I own a 1999 Miata and a Mazda 6 as well as having  owned a 2011 Miata the odds are pretty good I’m on a mailing list somewhere.

The event was not well attended. In the 2 days and 12 hours they had about 160 people according to a couple of the employees I asked. BMW gets almost 10 times that number at their Ride and Drive events.

That could be because BMW lets people drive all their cars. The MX-5 has a small but very loyal following.

But the reason I am writing this isn’t because I think the Miata is a great car. It is. What it isn’t is an Electric Car.

Since I have owned my Ford Focus Electric car I am pretty much spoiled. EV’s are a just more fun. If what you want is instant performance and a fun driving experience you really need to go out and test drive one of the many Electric Vehicles out there.

Not a Hybrid like the Prius or Honda Accord where the electric motor is an afterthought but a car where the electric motor is the primary source of power. One where the gas motor, if it has one charges the batteries and you get all that instant torque.

There are quite a few today and many being added in the near future.

While most of us mortals can’t afford a Tesla and it’s Insane Mode along with its insane price there are many EV’s now days for less than 30k and even lest than 25k after tax breaks.

Walk in to your Chevy Dealer and try the Volt. Don’t like Chevrolet. Ford has the C-Max and Fusion Energy as well as the all electric Focus.

BMW. The i8 and i3.

While Volkswagen might not be trustworthy with their diesel technology they do have the eGolf. Maybe they will release their hybrid Golf in the States soon now that they can’t sell their diesels.

In the next few years even with cheap gas people will learn that electric cars are fun. They have lower costs to maintain and 90% of the time you will never burn gas in the Extended Range models.

If you are in the market for a new car give one a try. If you are in the market for a used car many are now hitting the used market and at ver reasonable prices.

Don’t try one because they are the environmentally responsible option. Try one because they are fun. Lots of fun. So much fun I have a Mazda for sale. Maybe two.

My next car will be a Telsa 3, That is unless there is another car make that can make an electric car I really like. Something like a Mazda 6 even a eGolf with a 200 mile range with a 35k or less price tag. At that price I wouldn’t even need a tax break. Just those HOV Plates.

 

Should you buy or lease a hydrogen car? No, in my opinion.

My opinion on why hydrogen cars are not going to be anything more than a compliance car or a diversion of money that could be better spent building out the electric infrastructure.

I have a Ford Focus Electric. And while Ford might disagree it looks to me like it’s just a compliance car. A car that is sold in only a few States and in limited numbers. Yes, they do have some dealers in non compliance States like Arizona but try to find one on a lot somewhere in AZ. I looked for months and when one did come in it was either pre sold or sold in less than 5 hours.

So if you read any of my previous posts about it, I went to California to get it. Then I had it shipped to AZ. It couldn’t make the drive because there were no chargers for 200 miles of the route and the car only has an 80 mile range.

So then why did I still buy it? Because I do have electricity at home. So do all my neighbors. I also have a place to charge at work, for free and many of the places I shop have a charger as well.

Although for the 6 months and 4000 plus miles I have had it I have never had to charge anywhere but at home. I do charge at work but not because I have to but because it is free to charge. I have also plunged it into a pay charger a couple times but only because I wanted to be sure I could and new how to do it. It’s not rocket science but you do have to set up accounts to do it.

Now let’s say that I really like the Toyota Miraj. I hear it’s a really great car and gets 300 plus miles on a fill up of hydrogen. I buy it. Fill it up and drive it home to AZ. From one of the 8 California dealers that sell it. Do they deliver it with a full tank? I should be able to get it home. Now what. Do I call AAA and tell them I’m out of hydrogen? Do they tow me back to Los Angeles where they have one of the 8 possibly working Nitrogen Stations that might be able to fill the car in 10 minutes or less. After all, Toyota is giving you free nitrogen for the first few years.

Are they going to build a Nitrogen Station at every Toyota Dealer? At least Nissan has a quick charge station at most of their dealers. Many of them even work most of the time.But even if they don’t you can charge your Leaf in your garage. For a few hundred dollars you can add a 220v outlet and charge your car from zero to full in less than 6 hours. I don’t even have a 220v outlet in my garage and I have never had a problem.

We rarely drive more than 30 miles a day. Only twice have I ever seen the warning that tells me I’m getting to far from home and I better turn back or charge at my destination. It was after a day of running a lot of errands before going to work and I was less than 3 miles from the charger at work and 20 miles from home.

Now the State of California is pretty committed to Hydrogen. They have earmarked $200 Million for building 100 stations in the next several years. In case you’re bad at math that’s $2 Million per station. Holy Crap Batman. $2 Million. That’s $2,000,000.00 And none of those stations have a soda machine or even a bathroom. I’m not even sure if they will have more than one pump. But if they only take 5 minutes to fill the tank I doubt they need more than one pump. At least if it’s working properly and the company supplying the hydrogen has kept the the station properly supplied.

Why would supply be an issue. Well? From the looks of it the hydrogen pump is sort of like a soda fountain dispenser. A supplier has to bring bottles of compressed hydrogen from the factory where they make it and hook them up to the complicated machine that compresses it and then cools it before it’s pumped into your car. At least CNG can be filled at home or a station that has piped in supply. Not Hydrogen. First they have to make it. Usually by using CNG. Why not just eliminate the middle step and just burn CNG in your car?

Now why would I think this is a waste of money. We do need to get off fossil fuels. Not just because of global warming but because we need clean air to breath as well.

Because the economics of battery electric cars make more sense.

Right now there are about 143,000 battery electric cars in the State of California. Every single one of these cars can drive anywhere in the Country and find a place to plug in. Ever since the Tennessee Valley Authority in the 1930’s pretty much all of the USA has electricity.

While it takes $2 Million to build one Hydrogen Fuel Station it only takes $50 Thousand to build one Electric DC Fast Charger. And that price is even less per extra line. So you can build 20 DC Fast Chargers for the cost of one Hydrogen Fuel Station.

But it gets better. Most people who drive Electric cars don’t need to fast charge. They rarely even need to slow charge. Most people could plug in anywhere they stop or shop and pick up just a mile or few if they need them. The cost for this. Just a plug on a lamp post or the wall near a parking spot. Most people could charge their car like they charge their phone or laptop at the airport. Just park near a plug and the equipment that comes with your car is all you need.

Right now my car has been parked at the airport for the last 3 days. It charged on the fast charger in two hours but it didn’t have to. I’m not going to be back for 4 days.

Where we do need fast chargers, are near highways and rest stops. Just like Tesla is doing. This would allow people like me to drive from L.A. to Phoenix if I really wanted to. Not that I’m planning on taking my Ford Focus Electric on a long trip but I might want to move from Arizona one day and I don’t want to ship the car. For most long trips I get on an airplane and rent a car if I need one. Sometimes I use Uber.

That’s pretty much why I see hydrogen cars as a waste of time and money. Why build a whole new infrastructure that still requires building stations that cost millions and keep you tied to having to buy your fuel like you buy gas now? Maybe that’s the answer. You are still tied to the same old model of buying fuel from a distribution system that puts your money into the pockets of the same companies we do now. No solar panels on your own roof providing your own clean energy. Just hide the dirtiest part of the process so you think that your doing something for the planet. Yes, there is still a lot of electricity made from coal but it is still cleaner than gasoline or all the fossil fuels used today to make hydrogen and transport it to the stations.

My money is on Battery Electric and Hybrid Electric like the Chevy Volt or Ford Cmax Energy Systems. While Toyota had a pretty good idea with the Prius and the Gas Extender Vehicle it’s now the time of the Battery Extender Vehicle. To be followed by the Long Range Battery Electric Vehicle.

I could be wrong but I don’t think the Japanese have made this big a mistake in backing the wrong idea since Pearl Harbor. I wonder why the Germans aren’t all in on hydrogen? Maybe something in their past?

Boy was I wrong says the USA Today

The other day I posted about how Americans wont be fooled again, buying gas guzzling SUV’s because fuel prices are at a relative historic low, as are wages.

But instead of being proven right I read an article just days later that we are not buying hybrids or high gas milage vehicles but once again the sales of SUV’s are on the rise in the  April 22 USA Today “Earth Day or not, hybrids take a hit”.

The article states that many electric or hybrid owners are less likely to trade their current vehicles in for another hybrid but would get an SUV instead.

The article goes on to say that “For better or worse, it looks like many hybrid and EV owners are driven more by financial motives rather than a responsibility to the environment,” says edmunds.com Director of Industry Analysis.

Although the impact on the environment does have a cost though we choose not to quantify it. It’s an unaccounted for externality that makes the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicles look cheaper than they actually are.

I question who the sample size or who these vehicle owners are.  Just a look around the streets and highways of Phoenix, Arizona (where I live) you will see lots of hybrids. And many of those are older cars from the first generation Prius as well.

From the looks of things, hybrid owners don’t replace their cars that often. In the last year, as well, I have seen many new model (2014+) hybrids on the road. My mother just bought one, a 2015 Prius V. So in my opinion, any car company that forgoes hybrids and BEV’s or PHEV’s and builds lots of SUV’s is doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past that allowed Japanese car makers to take much of the US market share that they retain to this day.

As long as car makers let fuel prices decide what they build instead of sound long term strategies the shortsighted idea of current fuel prices staying low forever will lead car makers off the cliff of bankruptcy over and over.

Efficient cars should lead fuel prices lower instead of low fuel prices leading to cars that consume more fuel which has historically lead to higher fuel prices.

Innovation leads to success. Henry Ford was an auto industry innovator. Maybe the last one. Why? Because many of the innovations of the auto industry in the last 50 years were forced on them by regulation. Seat Belts, MPG requirements just to name a couple biggies. For the most part the auto industry is like your grand parents. Dragged into the next century kicking and screaming if they don’t die first.

The article also states that GM has temporarily halted production of the Volt. Well, considering they announced that next year they will have the Volt 2.0 that’s going to be significantly better, who’s going to pay full price for last years technology. They might as well keep dropping the price till the last buyer wants it so cheap it makes more sense to donate them to a charity for the tax break.

People who can pay full price for an iPhone don’t go running out once the timeframe for the new iPhone is near. Which is why Steve Jobs kept the next big thing a big secret till it was ready for sale.

And while car dealers give rebates and incentives on last years model all the time cars like the Volt will be much more sensitive to new model announcements. Many of the people buying these cars want the latest and greatest tech. This will also become more common on all cars as things like blind spot monitoring, adaptive cruise control and a host of many other technologies become more prevalent in cars of all trim levels.

The USA Today article also talks about dismal sales of Plug in Toyota hybrids being down 61%. That might have something to do with the fact that it’s hard to find one on a dealers lot if you don’t live in a CARB State.

Toyota only sold their Rav4 EV in California. Yet I personally know 3 people who bought one and brought it back to Arizona. They love that SUV. Even though it’s sort of a bastardized RAV4.

Honda only sold their Fit EV in AZ for a very short time and then only leased them. And then discontinued making then shortly there after.

I’m not sure car dealers like EV’s much, especially BEV’s as they require so little maintenance. A large profit center for dealers.

When I was car shopping with my mother earlier this year their were no plug in Prius’s to be found in Arizona. How can someone buy one when dealers don’t have them to sell?

And when I went shopping for my Ford Focus Electric (FFE), you couldn’t find any of those in Arizona either. At least  The dealers sold them all 20 minutes after they hit the lot. I had to go to California to buy mine. And the economics made sense. And they still make sense as gas prices are actually 15% higher than the day I bought it. The price of gas would have to go to 70 cents a gallon to equal the price of electricity per mile. And since most of the electricity produced at night is from nuclear the amount of carbon per mile is much lower.

The tags in AZ for the equivalent Ford Focus are $500 for the first year. The cost of the tags for my Focus, $60 for 5 years. Access to the HOV lane. I would say you can’t put a price on that but you actually can. There are people who can no longer get a HOV access plate with a new hybrid car who are leasing plates from prior Prius owners for $1000 per year.

If people are buying SUV’s and trading in their hybrids it has nothing to do with the economics. It has more to do with the emotions.

Hybrids for the most part are pretty boring and very utilitarian. The Toyota Prius does make a great Taxicab though. It has a very large back seat with lots of legroom.

The fact that hybrids are so boring is why Tesla is so successful. Their cars, while quite expensive are actually fun to drive. They don’t handle like a box truck. They aren’t the bottom of the line trim levels. But the VW Golf E, The Kia Soul E and Ford Focus E are actually very nice cars as well and at the top trim levels can be had for less than 30k after the tax credit.

Had Ford not dropped the price of the FFE to 32k and the dealer not also dropped another 2k off the price I would have probably bought a Volkswagen Golf Electric. Another car maker who chose to go top of the line trim instead of bottom of the line trim. Just like the FFE. That’s what swayed me away from the Leaf. In order to have the price make sense the only Leaf would have been the S or bottom trim level.

One other thing car makers need to do, not just in their EV vehicles but all vehicles is stop selling expensive Nav packages with old useless tech. Almost everybody today has a smartphone. All they need to do is put the necessary interfaces for people to use their smartphones. At least Tesla chose to make their tech an improvement on current display tech vs using 3 or 4 year old tech in the average new car.

Like 15 or 20 years ago nobody new they wanted let alone needed a smartphone and that they would become as ubiquitous as watches were just 20-70 years ago. In 10-20 years the Electric Vehicle that primarily drives itself, will be the new iPhone. All it takes is some leadership and vision from an industry that has a dismal track record of predicting the future.

Elon Musk will be seen as the next Steve Jobs but just like Apple it took companies like Google, Samsung and LG to join in on the road to the future we now know. Maybe it’s time those companies take their huge stockpiles of cash and start building cars while the current car companies fade into the sunset and stop perpetuating the myth that bring hydrocarbons is good for the planet.

While GM got it’s bailout, like Chrysler before it, this will probably not be the last time we see a big automaker in need of a financial lifeline. It’s time they stopped being pretending to be experts. The last thing they need to do is build the next Hummer. If they can’t lead they need to follow or just get the hell out of the way.

This time if we support innovators with the bailout money instead we can transform our society into the future sooner rather than later.