Tag Archives: Tesla 3

Tesla 3 Performance $76,500, Worth it?

Is this the long awaited Tesla Model 3 Performance?

Tesla Model 3 Performance?

O.K., I’m not really sure it’s been long awaited or even if there is a need for a “Performance” Model 3.

Who really needs a car that can go really fast and get there really quickly when the top speed on most U.S. Highways is 75 MPH and the speed on most surface streets is 30 MPH?

Well, no one actually, but what does need have to do with why many people buy the cars they do? What many car people seem to have in common is the need for speed. Going fast and getting there quickly.

I’ve loved speed since I was a little kid. I used to race my little Honda XR75 most every day during the summer before I outgrew it.

Later after I got my drivers license I learned about understeer firsthand causing my fathers fairly new Mazda RX3  trying to go around a corner but instead it hit the curb in front of me with the front wheels turned damaging the front suspension. Sorry, I meant totaling the car but fortunately no one was hurt. My racing career for the next few years was limited to doing donuts in snow covered parking lots after that.

One thing that is lacking for most people and especially teenagers is professional instruction on how to drive not only a “Performance” car but cars in general. Taking drivers ed in high school if they still offer that never taught anyone how to drive a car this fast. 0-60 in 3.5 seconds. It might not be ludicrous but it sure as hell is insane. If you wonder why Tesla’s are crashing, this is why. Stupid people with a moderate amount of money now have access to super car performance. Yesterday you could buy a Tesla S with insane performance for about $65k used or $85k new but it is a very heavy car that the smart people only tested out the performance on drag strips or highway entrance lanes. A few morons tried it in school zones and most probably got away with it. When you’re doing 105 mph it doesn’t take much to screw up, big time. I was probably only going 35 when I took that corner in my fathers Mazda.

I digress, sorry. Back to is the car worth so much? I was invited to configure my Tesla and here is what I came up with.

Performance

  1. Dual motor all wheel drive $64,000
  2. Performance Upgrade         $ 5,000
  3. Midnight Silver Metallic       $ 1,000
  4. Premium White Interior      $ 1,500
  5. Enhanced Autopilot             $ 5,000
  6. Delivery and Doc Fee          $ 1,000
  7. Sales Tax 8%                         $ 6,120
  8. Tax Rebate                           ($ 7,500)
  9. Total Cost                              $75,120

That is some major coin for something that if you value your Drivers License, Freedom, and the lives of others to pay for a car that can only be properly experienced on a track.

So that brings up some more major questions.

  1. How long will the battery last going around a track?
  2. How long will it sustain peek performance without overheating?
  3. How well do the upgraded brakes perform?
  4. Will there be Superchargers at Race Tracks?
  5. Will the car be a worthy track car for the price?
  6. Will it out perform a BMW M3?
  7. When will Elon let me drive the car around a race track?

I know there will be people with more money than brains who buy this car and have never taken a High Performance Driving class in their lives. There will also be people who take the awesome power they are given and abuse it on the street. I’m amazed with all the Tesla’s out there already that more people haven’t been creamed in intersections or crosswalks with people testing out the acceleration when the light turns green. Maybe they are still texting away or reading their email?

At $76K I’m not rich enough to take the risk to see just how awesome this car can be. In the mean time I will continue to pay about $1k every once in a while to attend High Performance driving schools where I can flog a BMW or Dodge SRT for a day or two on a track in a safe environment. If you lose your license what good is a $75k Super Car?

If my readers would like to help see if the Tesla 3 Performance is a BMW killer you can help sponsor me here. The first place it going is the track.

 

Telsa 3, is it worth $60k

As many of you have a read my blog in the past know I’m a big fan of Tesla and Elon Musk.

Many of you may have read that Tesla is on track now to build 5,000 Model 3’s a week or more.

You also know that the Tesla game plan was to work their way down to building a car for the common man. Well, sorry, in my estimation they are no where near that goal, yet.

Apparently Tesla has invited all 500,000 or so people who put down a $1000 deposit to order their car. Remember when they said they would fill orders from the first to last but west coast to east coast? And we all know that right now that even if you don’t configure a single upgrade the car is going to cost $50k before sales tax and tax breaks. For me that would be $46,500 after the sales tax and $7.5k tax rebate.

In reality though once I choose a paint color other than black ($1k), the wheels that aren’t ugly($1.5k), the dual motor option ($4k) and the $5k advanced cruise control (auto-pilot) I’m at $60k is serious coin. O.K. so is $46,000.

This is not a Model S. Which configured about the same way would only be $20k more. Yet a far more useful car. A car that can fit the family for a long cross country trip. A car that gets free supercharging (with referral code). If you can afford $60k why not $80k?

And all this for a car brand that is about as reliable as Cell Phone service was in it’s infancy.

What’s it like to be turning left across traffic and have the the power steering stop working? Ask Marques Brownlee.

What’s it like to be driving along and have your screen go blank? Ask Ben Sullins.

Ben and his wife talk about why you really want this version because it’s the best battery for the buck and how having the most battery you can buy to get the best useful range possible only to say just a few minutes later how it would be great if the car could comfortably fit their family and gear for longer trips.

Like most people I want a Tesla because it doesn’t use gas, oil, spark plugs and mufflers. It eliminates the complexity of an internal combustion engine. The brakes last longer because of regenerative braking. But most of all the promise of autonomous driving.

Yes, I want a Tesla because of the advanced driving aids and potential of autonomous driving. But it’s still not that advanced. Adaptive cruise control and lane keeping assist isn’t really that advanced by todays standards. Tesla is in the same stage the iPhone was at the beginning when people thought they could use it as a phone. I have no doubt they will get there, one day. Today they are counting on the threshold of pain theory.

Could I change my mind. Maybe if I get inside one and take it for a few test drives. After all, that’s how I ended up married. Also not a financially rational decision. I haven’t been attached to a single car as long as I’ve been attached to my wife though.

Are there other cars worth looking at. More functional, almost as pretty but not quite the trophy wife the Tesla 3 is?

If you’ve read my previous posts you know I’m not a fan of the Bolt. And probably never will be. I don’t fit in it and they will never overcome that obstacle. I’m still a big fan of the Ford Focus EV but Ford isn’t so that could be a problem in the future. I am intrigued by the new Nissan Leaf. A car possibly taking a second look at now that Tesla hasn’t yet met its promise of a $35k car without rebates. When it does and it’s not as stripped as a VW Golf EV S Model whose SEL Model I actually like they might have something.

I hope Elon sells his 400,000 or so reservations the higher priced models. Because that’s what it’s going to take to get to the $35k car. If 300,000 people are waiting for the cheaper car like me, I’m not to sure he will get there. But if a rocket can take off and land safely he might just pull it off.

I’m telling rooting for you Elon. Hopefully you don’t end up like Nicola did.

 

 

Hey Elon! I’ve got a few questions about this driverless thing.

I love that you want to make the Tesla a fully autonomous vehicle. Being in my mid 50’s I’ve seen what happens to our parents when they can, or no longer should drive, but hold on much longer than they should, to their cars and their licenses.

I also live in Arizona near one of the largest Senior Communities in the State. The accidents aren’t pretty and happen far to often, many times with devastating results.

This is the probably one of the best reasons I see for advancing the autonomous vehicle. For people who for whatever reason can no longer or never were able to drive (blindness).

But I hear you talk about how I’m going to send my car out to work when I’m not using it. I have also heard you talk about how those who drive for a living are going to lose their jobs to autonomy.  That might be true. But, I can tell you have probably never driven a taxi or given an Uber ride. If you had, you’d know how crazy it sounds. I have a hard enough time parking in a public lot, where scratches and dents are a fairly normal occurrence, and no one claims responsibility. Once in a while something like this happens:

 

And I’m not talking about that she has passed out and isn’t getting out of the car without calling the police.

In the old days when Taxi Drivers and Owners could make a living, GM and Ford made Taxicab versions of their cars. While many of the options will not be needed by an Electric car, like bigger brakes and larger cooling systems to sit long periods in heavy traffic, I can think of a few that will be very necessary.

The biggest need, very heave duty upholstery, where when someone vomits or leaves any other bodily fluid it is easily cleaned. No leather, no carpet, something you can easily hose out. And without a driver, how will we know when the car needs a good cleaning before it gets to the next passenger? Who enforces the no smoking rule?

 

I also am guessing that you aren’t accounting for the passenger that opens the door into traffic. So far only the back doors on the X are vertical opening. On the cheaper S and 3, having a door get hit without a system to prevent it, like a human, I see it happening far more often and it does happen more often than you might think. And those doors and seats are going to have a lot of cycles on them. Something very few passenger cars are built to handle. It’s not uncommon for hinges to crack like a kid flexing an aluminum can till it cracks.

Then you have passengers that want to get in or out right in front of their origin/destination. Can your car do that, yet? Stop in a lane of traffic and open the doors?

You say that you can set your car so only family, friends or 5 star passengers can use it. Whose going to give the passenger the stars, HAL? Can it smell body odor? Remember the Seinfeld episode with the valet?

https://youtube.com/watch?v=-pEhqiCD27E%22

If the car gets hit who’s going to call the police and fill out the police report?

Whose going to help put luggage or groceries in the trunk?

There is one other thing I hear you talk about. That the cost of a car (I assume you mean cost per mile) is going to be so cheap that it won’t make sense to ride the bus.

I’m not sure how you figure that but lets give it a try. Right now in Phoenix Uber pays 70 cents a mile and 7 cents per minute. Now we all know the car is only being paid with a passenger in it. If you are lucky that half the time and half of the miles driven. In the end the driver gets 35 cents a mile and 3 cents per minute. Actually less because Uber gets 20-25%. How much are you going to keep?

If a car drives an average of 30mph and is driving with a fair half the time thats $2 in time and $10.50 per hour. Or a total of $12.50 per hour. Then Uber gets there piece, $3.13 or $9.37 an hour. That equates to 31 cents per mile.

Right now based on that number Uber drivers are working pretty much for free as there are almost no cars out there that cost less than 31 cents per mile when you add up all the costs to operate.

If a Model 3 costs $50k and you can get 500k miles out of it depreciation alone is 13 cents per mile. Add about 6 cents per mile in electricity and we have 19 cents a mile so far. Thats about 5 years of driving in a cab in a major city and most new cabs barely last 4 years but were going to give your car every opportunity.

That will probably take 10 sets of tires or $7k, 7 sets of brakes at $300 or $2100 and 5 years of insurance at $3k or $15k. Lets add $2k a year for incidentals which is also probably low. About another $5k a year. So total $25k more divided by 500k is another 5 cent per mile.

So we are now at .25 cents per mile. If we look at the cost of an Uber with a driver there is 6 cents per mile profit.

If your car can meet my assumptions that’s a $6k a year return on a $50k investment or 12%. That’s pretty good and even better if you can double your paid miles.

But, odds are better that you’ll only get 300k miles out of the car, not 500k. If that happens the returns are negative.

And there is one other catch. And we can thank Uber for this one. There is no longer a barrier to entry. Anybody can put on one car or one hundred cars. The reason Uber fares are so cheap is because there are more Uber drivers than cockroaches. Uber drivers don’t do the math so they work for next to nothing. I’m not sure a person would let another person they don’t know in their cars unsupervised. Although it pretty obvious they will give people rides for close to free. If I lived in New York, San Francisco or San Diego I’m not that sure I would even own a car anymore.

I spent a week in DC last month and had a rental for just one day. Between Uber and Public Transportation we spent less than $100 for the week. Who needs a car.

I will buy a Tesla that is fully autonomous when that price hits $50k or less but I’m sure as hell not letting anybody but family ride in it.

The only way I’d buy more than one and operate it like a taxicab is if it made financial sense. The only way to do that is limit the number of cars out there. But, I think that cat is already had it’s nine lives.

One last problem with self driving cars and ride sharing. Ride sharing only works because people see giving rides as a way to get others to pay for their car. The fewer people with cars the fewer people willing to share for cheap.  Does that solve the problem of getting more per mile? Maybe.

Tesla Model S, The most dangerous car in the world?

If you have ever driven an electric car you know that from 0-30 most if not all are faster that the average American car.

The average sedan or SUV takes about 6 – 8 seconds to go from 0 to 60 from a dead stop, like at a traffic light. But most people don’t accelerate from 0 to 60 from a red light. Most go from 0 to 30 or maybe 45 in the city, where you are likely to encounter pedestrians and vehicles blowing thru the red light because it was yellow and they thought they could make it. Look both ways and count to 2 before going thru.

The only time you go from 0 to 60 is maybe getting on an expressway entrance. Most expressway ramps, today, are designed so even a cheap 4 cylinder car can reach 60 by the time you have to merge on the highway. That’s why the performance given is 0 to 60. Back in the day you wanted to know you could get up to speed getting on the freeway without getting killed.

What 0 to 60 has become today is how cool or bad ass your car is. The faster the time the more street cred your car has. It’s the standard for penis measuring in the auto world. But here the smaller the number the better.

And Tesla actually has one of the lowest 0 to 60 numbers for the lowest price. The P100D with ludicrous mode can go from 0-60 in 2.28 seconds and you can buy it for the low price of about $150k nicely optioned.

The next closest car that can do that is the Porsche 918 Spyder at about $850k

But here is the problem. The Tesla travels at 76.2 feet per second at that rate of acceleration. And unlike a gas powered engine it does it instantly, the second you floor the pedal. The average  human reaction time to visual stimulus is .25 of a second. This car can travel 19 feet before anyone would even notice it moved.

So lets take an all to common scenario today. You have a kid texting on his iPhone while walking towards a street. You have another kid driving a Tesla who thinks it’s really cool to hit the gas (yeah, I know it’s not gas) and get to speed as fast as he can. Do you see where I’m going here?

How about another scenario. You are driving along at 40 MPH while the speed is 45 MPH. You want to change lanes. So you signal and look right to see if it’s safe. Well the Tesla to the right and two car lengths behind can’t see your turn signal, but sees an opportunity to get past you and the slower car ahead. He floors it and wham, right into you he goes.

All this because the Tesla has super powers that gas engine cars don’t have. They make their fastest acceleration on the beginning side of 0 to 60. Gas cars, even the fastest ones don’t hit their highest foot per second speed in a linear rate as they accelerate like a Tesla.

Even a Nissan Leaf goes from 0 to 30 much faster than it goes from 30 to 60. But the odds are someone who drives a Leaf isn’t measuring their Penis, if they have one.

So is the Tesla S the most dangerous car in the world? No, that was pretty much click bait. Just like any other car, it’s only as dangerous as the person behind the wheel. The problem with any car that has super powers, be it the Tesla, Ferrari, Corvette or even Chevette, if you drive like a moron you can do a lot of damage.

The one thing the Tesla has that most other cars don’t, even your standard Chevrolet Camaro or Ford Mustang is the Tesla has Automatic Emergency Braking. The odds are pretty good that the Tesla will actually stop you from killing yourself or someone else if you choose to do something stupid.

And best of all, you don’t have to buy the top of the line Tesla to get really great acceleration. The base Tesla does 0 to 60 in 6 seconds. While a BMW 3 series might do  0 to 60 in about 5 to 6 seconds it doesn’t go 0 to 30 as fast. That’s really where the fun is in city driving.

The Tesla 3 is supposed to do 0 to 60 in 6 seconds and for $35k. The best reason to buy the more expensive Tesla is to get the bigger battery and more range.

Something you might not know about the Tesla. Most of the cars they have to test drive are not the lowest or slowest 0 to 60 model. But, they have a hack where you can limit the performance. Well, why would you do that? Because you don’t want, your kid, neighbor or friend to rip around town in your $100k baby.

If you really want to get that felling of speed from your high performance car with out getting a ticket or getting charged with reckless driving, felony speeding or manslaughter do what most normal responsible drivers do. Go to the track on Track Day or the Drag Strip on Friday night when they let the average person take their cars to the limit. It’s a lot cheaper than a lawyer and doing jail time.

Just like most smart people by now have figured out that’s it’s cheaper to Uber than drink and drive, it’s far cheaper to take your car to the track than drive like your average teenager with a fast car.

Speaking of Uber.

If you have never used Uber. Use the code Z4JRI for $20 off your first ride.

If you are  like me have never used Lyft. Use the code DOGFOOD and get up to $20 off your first ride.

And if you still drive a car that has a Internal Combustion Engine make it more environmentally friendly by using Amsoil Synthetic Lubricants. For more information go to www.BDPSYN.com

Thanks for reading. Leave you comments below and make sure you share and like this post with your friends on Facebook and Twitter.

 

Plug-in Hybrids, Boon or Bane?

There are still a lot of people that are afraid to buy an all electric car. It’s hard to blame them as most people think they need far more range than they actually do.

Sixty-one percent of drivers never drive more than 50 miles one way ever.  Twenty-one percent never drive more than 200 miles one way. (https://ark-invest.com/research/electric-vehicles).

“About 8% of workers in the USA have commutes of an hour or longer, and nearly 600,000 full-time workers endure “megacommutes” of at least an hour-and-a-half and 50 miles, according to new U.S. Census data on commuting.

The national average, one-way daily commute is 25.5 minutes, and 4.3% of the nation’s workers work from home. The data is from the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey for 2011.” (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/03/05/americans-commutes-not-getting-longer/1963409/)

If the average commute is 26 minutes and the average speed in 60 MPH then the average one way commute is 26 miles or less. And it’s probably a lot less as many people spend much of their commutes in rush hour traffic. The real average commute is probably 20 miles or less.

Other than having a fantasy in their mind about, how could you possibly live with a car that has less than a 200 mile range and that you can’t drive cross country, most people would be fine with a car with an 80-120 miles of range. That is until the rise of plugin hybrids.

All the car magazines and shows encourage this fantasy as well. Well, as long as people think they need to drive 200 miles a day then let’s give them 200 miles, or better yet, 400 miles on a tank of gas with 15-20 miles of plug in charge range. That way they can drive 95% of the time using battery power and maybe 5% of the time on gas power. And that one or two weekends a year where they actually make that 200 mile spur of the moment trip (sarcasm) they don’t have to go rent a car for the trip.

And that’s where the Plugin Hybrid is a boon. 99% of the folks who buy them will spend most of the time on battery power. And it doesn’t hurt that they will spend 100% of it in the HOV lane. Especially is cities like Phoenix where you can’t pay to use it.

They can also plug in to a 110 outlet and be fully charged by the end of a ball game. No need for expensive installs of 220 dedicated chargers. 3 hours and your good to go.

So why are they a bane?

They take much of the limited public chargers. Pure BEV’s can’t charge when they really need it. When I first bought my Ford Focus EV 2 years ago the plugin hybrid was a unicorn.

I could go to work where there were 6 spots with Level 2 chargers and you might find 2 or 3 cars there. A couple Leafs and maybe a Tesla very now and then. Now 2 years later and you will rarely find one open space. And most if not all of the spaces have Volts, maybe a CMAX or two and maybe a Fusion. And the biggest problem is that almost half the cars are there for 3-4 days as a majority are pilots or Flight Attendants. That’s a lot of wasted charge potential. A level 2 charger can charge a Volt 3-5 hours from empty. What are the odds it’s empty when it gets there? Many of the other hybrids that only have a 15 mile range will charge ion half that time. They need charge cords that plug in on the lights in the parking lot. Not level 2 chargers.

Another place I go often, although not more than 2-3 times a month is 40 miles one way. It’s the Hockey Stadium. There are 2 free chargers there. Once again you’ll usually find the hybrids plugged in there as most of the BEV’s can’t take a chance that they don’t get to plug in. I sure as heck can’t. 80 highway miles in a Focus or even a Leaf isn’t going to happen even if you get to start out with a full charge.

If you drive a pure BEV that’s not a Tesla you probably have less than 80 miles of range. And while this is generally enough to get home and back from work, it’s not always enough to get home and back and then run a few errands on top of it.

If you drive a plugin because you want to clean up the environment and want others to do the same you are going to need to stop using public chargers. Just because you can or want as much free electricity as you can mooch. I’m sure that dollar a day your getting is going to make or break you.

Instead if you to get more people to follow your example you are going to need to be good stewards and let the folks who actually made the ultimate sacrifice and didn’t buy an insurance engine use those level 2 chargers.

Until more pure BEVs are sold no one is going to put large amounts of chargers out there. Not everyone out there has the vision of Elon Musk. Even GM says that they are all in on BEV’s but don’t think they need to build a charger infrastructure. And since their only BEV’s are either hybrids or have a 200 mile range why should they?

The Volt is outselling the Tesla S. And the Bolt isn’t that far behind. Pretty soon if you own a BEV with less than 200 miles of range you better hope you don’t need to charge on the road or at work.

Even Tesla’s dirty secret is that many of their chargers are ICED out a lot of the time.

The good news is there should lots of really cheap BEV’s hitting the used market here in the next year or two.

If you are  like me have never used Lyft. Use the code DOGFOOD and get up to $20 off your first ride.

If you have never used Uber. Use the code Z4JRI for $20 off your first ride.

And if you still drive a car that has a Internal Combustion Engine make it more environmentally friendly by using Amsoil Synthetic Lubricants. For more information go to www.BDPSYN.com

Thanks for reading. Leave you comments below and make sure you share and like this post with your friends on Facebook and Twitter.

2017 Audi A3 e-tron, I love it, maybe.

You can’t make a sound financial argument for buying this car. It’s a $48k car before tax incentives. And since EV’s, especially plugin hybrids are finally becoming popular dealers aren’t even offering much in the way of discounts anymore.

So far the only EV I have been able to make a financial argument for is the Ford Focus EV. It’s also hard to make an environmental argument for a hybrid. Maybe in Europe it would be easier but not in the U.S.

Gas is still pretty cheap and we don’t have an excessive problem with pollution in our city centers. You don’t have to pay a pollution tax here and you aren’t going to see an EV only zone anytime soon like you will in the EU in the near future.

Now some more reasons you might not want a hybrid, plugin or not.

You still have an Internal Combustion Engine with all its required maintenance. Oil changes, spark plugs, belts, hoses and fuel tanks, gauges and pumps. What a hassle. . Then you have the electric motor. The most efficient part of the system. Then you have a transmission and all the controllers that tie the two motors together, It’s amazing they are as reliable as they are. It’s like a twin engine airplane. Way more expensive than it has to be and when one engine system fails it won’t necessarily save you. At least in the case of the hybrid you get better gas mileage, not worse.

Let’s compare it to a turboprop  airplane. A jet engine that turns a propeller. More efficient than a jet for shorter trips at lower altitudes.  Hybrids are more efficient in the city than on the highway. If most of your driving is on the highway you should either drive a diesel (this was written before VW Dieselgate), a high mileage ICE car or a pure EV with a range you can live with.

So now that I’ve told you what I don’t like about this car and  hybrids in general why would I want to buy this car?  Lets start with I hate my Prius V. Driving it is about as much fun as doing laundry. Is that reason enough? No, maybe not.

Back to the A3 eTron. It’s cute, it’s fun to drive and most of the time you drive it you won’t be using any gas. That is if your daily commute is less than 20 miles a day or you can plug in at work. My drive to work. 20.2 miles. I can charge at work. Did I say I only drive to work 1 or 2 days a week. The rest of the week I’m driving about 15-20 miles a day running errands and driving my son to and from school.

So what’s holding me back. The $50k price tag for a hybrid. Why wouldn’t I just buy a Chevy Bolt? I haven’t driven a Bolt yet but $40k for a Top of the line Bolt that has little if any of the comforts of a German car. That’s what. Even a Basic VW Golf has more style.

And there is one other really big thing holding me back from buying any current EV. The Tesla 3. Just the threat of the Tesla 3 has many automakers promising pure BEV’s that will have 200 miles of range and come in around $35k.

Cult of Tesla (Motors)

In my last post I asked if Detroit should be worried about Tesla and the Tesla 3. I said that it would mostly effect the Germans and the BMW 3 series in particular.

Since I wrote that I have personally met 2 people that have put their money down to reserve a spot for a Tesla 3.

Oddly they are very much like me. They are not luxury car buyers. They don’t spend big bucks on status. They are Toyota and Honda buyers. They drive cars till they fall apart.

What else they have in common is they make 6 figure incomes. They would strongly fit in the category of the millionaire next door. They don’t show wealth, they have it.

Another thing they have in common is they embrace technology. They are the customers that Apple loves.

These are the same people that bought the second generation iPhone and iPad. The one that had shown some usefulness although not as much as today.

Why is this important? Quite frankly, the car doesn’t have to be perfect. The biggest complaint about the iPhone is that as a phone it sucks. Reliability is actually not all that great. Mostly because the network carriers that place the calls but there are bug fixes and software updates all the time.

Well, just like we have learned to tolerate less than perfect reliability from our phones we will allow the same annoyances from our cars. That is if the car is “special”. And the Tesla if anything is special.

Just look at Consumer Reports. In their initial tests the car broke the 100 point barrier. Yet when looking at long term reliability they can no longer recommend the car. Seriously?

You can’t really expect Tesla to compete with a Honda Civic or Toyota Camry. They are basically reliable transportation, but not much fun to drive. They are not as dull as driving a Prius or Yaris but there is no joy in flooring the accelerator on an entry ramp and reaching 60 MPH in 8-10 seconds.

The Tesla can have a few bugs and even need a trip or two to the Tesla version of the Genius Bar every now and then and people will still love it. As Consumer Reports bares out with there less than stellar reliability rating after the initial wow of 100 plus.

As long as the car performs the cool things fairly well people will tolerate a few bugs.

Driving an EV that can do 0-30 faster than almost any ICE car is pretty cool but having an EV that can do 0-60 in six seconds will make that trip to work just that much more fun. Then when you get on the highway having the car do most of the driving for you, how great is that.

Tesla is attacking 3 markets here, Luxury German small sedans, Japanese midsize sedans and Apple. Yes, Apple. This is where all your customers who buy the next upgrade are about to spend their dollars very soon. If Apple wants people to buy their watch they might want to start working on apps that interface with Tesla right away.

I predict that Tesla will follow the trajectory of Apple all the way to where Apple is today.

Apple like Microsoft will write software that runs in most brands of car. Tesla will produce the cars and the software that people who just want a solution that works, most of the time.

I used to build my own computers and spend hours experimenting with the latest modems and graphics cards. Then about 2006 I gave all that up and since I went Mac I never looked back.

My next car will probably be a Bolt or eGolf. My next car after that. A Tesla S when the price hits around $40k, maybe a second generation 3 when it hits $35k with all the bells and whistles.

Just this last year I stopped doing most of my own car repairs. With any luck brakes will be off my list of repairs as well.

I am looking forward to the day that auto mechanics wear lab coats and not overalls.

Coming form a guy who sells Synthetic Motor Oils that says a lot! Amsoil, the next best thing to being oil free.

 

Tesla 3, Should Detroit be scared?

It’s been a little over a month since the Tesla 3 was unveiled and I haven’t posted anything about it till today. Odd for a blog about electric vehicles. After all, Tesla is the EV by which all other EV’s are measured.

Well, for one thing the Tesla 3 is little more than a prototype, just like the Chevy Bolt. Neither car is in production or it’s final form. All we have seen of both is a body and and some basic interior shots. Neither of these cars floats my boat, yet.

But what I find interesting about both these cars is, that while neither is in production both are setting standards for what an EV has to be to appeal to a mass market. Or at least what people think they need to be able to appeal to a mass market.

Let’s look at the supposed needs to make this car appeal to more than just a few early adopters who run out and buy the latest product Apple has to offer.

A car with a range of 200 miles. Why 200 miles. Because that’s about the average range of a gas powered vehicle. The reality though is people don’t drive 200 miles a day. They drive 200 miles between fill ups. That could be 6 hours or 6 days. For most people that’s once or twice a week. Not daily.

Right now most EV’s have a range of 70 miles. 95% of the time that’s really enough. Most people with EV’s plug in every night. Ask your average EV’r and they will tell you they love never having to stop for gas and that the 70 miles they get is more than they need most of the time. While they have a second vehicle in the family the EV gets driven the most and the second car rarely gets used. The person who drives the least drives the ICE car. Maybe once a month it goes for that drive to the long weekend vacation. Maybe.

Currently there are several EV’s like the Ford Focus, Kia Soul and VW eGolf that can do this no problem and for less than $35k. And that brings us to the next holy grail number.

Priced less than $35k. Really, that’s the number that it takes to get people to run out in masse and buy an EV? I think not. That might kill sales of the BMW 3 Series or other German Cars in it’s class but it’s not going to kill sales of the average family sedan.

The average midsize sedan sells more cars in 2 months than BMW sells 3’s in a year. And they sell on average for a lot less than $35k. The top end is $35k. Not everyone buys the most expensive trim level. Most don’t.

The Tesla 3 and the Bolt and all the rest of the EV’s out there with the only exceptions being the Tesla S and X are all compact cars. Tesla 3 will most likely have an edge here as the 3 is on a compact frame but since it was built from the ground up as an EV it will make far better use of the space available.

And now lets talk about the real elephant in the room. Tesla can’t use sales of their big SUV’s and Pick Up Trucks to subsidize the sales of the 3. They will be selling a lot of CAFE credits to the other automakers but they can’t charge $80k for an Escalade and sell a Volt for $10k less than it costs to build. And since we know that very few 3’s are going to roll of the assembly line with zero options just like very few BMW’s roll of the assembly line with zero options just like a BMW 3 the average price of a Tesla 3 will likely top $50k.

Who want’s to drive a compact car cross country? Not me. I really don’t think that many people drive their Tesla’s across the country now. A few just to prove they could and get their video on youtube but really? The Tesla 3 and the rest of the EV’s out there are only going more than 100 miles in day when the person moves from one city to another. Or like my Ford Focus that needed to get from L.A. to Phoenix because it was cheaper and readily available in California.

There is another problem that all automakers are going to have with their EV’s. I don’t care if it’s Tesla, Honda, Nissan or Apple. Not everyone like the way a car looks. To me the Leaf isn’t cute or futuristic, it’s plain ugly. I like the Mazda 6 but I don’t like the way the Mazda 3 looks. Or should I say the Tesla 3 since the same guy designed the Mazda and the Tesla.

I do like the way the Ford Focus and the VW eGolf look. I’ll wait till they have t drop their price to sell their compliance cars that starting next year will get about 110 miles of range. More than enough for 99.9% of what I need.

Will they have autopilot? Probably not. If I want all the killer new tech I might just have to wait and see if Chevy really produces the Bolt in a configuration they have said they will launch with Lyft, the other car service. Maybe the Bolt will save Lyft, or the Lyft will produce a bigger market for the Bolt. I’m not sure how that will work or who it will help.

What I do know for sure is that EV’s are here to stay this time around. Tesla has forced Detroit to take them seriously this time around. People want cars that run on electricity and they want cars that can pretty much drive themselves while we text and read email or Facebook.

While Tesla has close to 400k people on an interest list that have ponied up $1k a piece for the privilege of standing in line hoping to get one they have lit a fire under GM and probably BMW and Mercedes to get their own versions out ASAP.

I have not put $1k on the line to hold my place. I’m counting on one of the other companies to get out there and compete against Tesla that has a dealer network and service centers near my house to get the job done first.

I’m actually betting Audi or VW might beat them to the punch.

I’m not counting Tesla out though. Tesla is going to sell a lot of cars. They are going to be the Apple of the auto industry. They are going to produce a specialty product that lots of people want and can be special for quite a while. They are going to disrupt the usual way of doing business selling cars over the next 20 years. Apple might even catch up to them or buy them one day.

But right now my purchase dollars are not with Tesla. But it took me till 2006 to dump my Windows computers. Now I’m all Apple. Maybe by 2026 I’ll be all in on Tesla. Just not today.

 

Tesla Stock Down! Cheap Gas Kills EV Car Sales, or Does It?

Will lower gas prices have a large effect on EV sales?

To a certain extent but there is a way that car makers could diminish the cheap gas advantage.

The Tesla has never been a car whose sales have been driven by high fuel prices. It’s appeal has been in performance and technology as well as status and muted luxury.

Anybody who has driven an EV loves the real world acceleration. By real world I mean 0-30. The burst of energy to change lanes or get on the freeway.

The average car takes much longer from a full stop to 30 MPH than an EV. From 30-60 it’s about the same time but the gasoline car spend from 30-60 catching up.

0-60 in 4 seconds is nice but in an ICE car that requires tens of thousands of dollars and an average MPG of around 12 MPG everyday to do that the very fews times you need that power. You just don’t need or can’t really enjoy your 700HP vehicle as much as you would like to.

Your 2 seat loud and obnoxious sports cars are the proverbial 12 inch penis. Impressive looking but not to many places that can handle all of it.

The only place cars like those have any use other than getting you a superficial mate are on the track. And they are actually more likely to get you tickets than they are a mate if you are not that good looking anyway that you need to buy the car to have women look at you.

Add to that most people with cars like that never take them to a track like many Jeep or 4×4 owners never take them off road and you have probably explained why most Americans think they are broke and don’t like to pay taxes.

Car makers have to stop only building tiny compact EV’s as well. While they might get the job done they aren’t impressive at all, don’t tell me that size doesn’t matter. Small might be able to fit in any parking spot but only the city dweller sees that as an advantage.  We don’t live in Europe.

Most Americans don’t fit in a Smart EV or Fiat EV.  We are large people. Many of us are over 6 feet tall and many are over 200 pounds. Or both. We need cars we fit in.

In order to get more people into the cars they need to be real world cars. The e-Golf and Mercedes B-Class are a nice start but they are still too expensive for only having 80 miles of range.

The new cars being announced with 200 mile ranges will start selling if you really build enough and sell them outside of the few CARB States.

They will outsell the Chevy Volt which still isn’t a 5 passenger car. The rear leg room is still to small. And the battery down the middle is just as bad as the Ford and their batteries across the truck or cargo bay. They will not find many new buyers. They will just keep many of the buyers they have. Unless they change to a flat battery pack under the floor.

The greatest thing about owning an EV, or even a Hybrid,  is rarely or ever having to stop to buy gas. Even if the price of gas is $1 per gallon. The approximate equilibrium price of gas to electricity as fuel for cars.

It really is nice to come home at night and just plug in your car instead of having to wait in line and pump gas.

The worst part now about driving any car is filling up the gas tank. It’s rare that I ever get the gas station to myself. Then after waiting in line for 5-10 minutes, I have to get out, swipe my card and spend 5 minutes looking at the guy next to me that cut in front or committed some breach of gas station etiquette.

With an EV you just pull into the garage, plug in and walk into the house and go about your normal business. You wouldn’t even think of buying a phone where you had to go to the store and buy new batteries every few days. Then through the dead batteries on the street like the emissions form your tail pipe.

With the advent of the 100 mile plus battery, which is enough for most peoples daily commute, that will be shortly followed by the 200 mile battery, the plug it in at night car that can work for 100% of your daily driving needs will be all you really need.

Add to that, no more oil changes, tune ups and all those other regular maintenance items that an internal combustion engine car has and you will be hooked.

That doesn’t even included all the environmental benefits.

A 200 mile range, 5 seats and a price tag of $30k in a sporty car like a VW Golf or Kia Soul might just be what it takes to get this evolution in transportation to catch on.

It will be interesting to see how Tesla responds to these challengers that are now taking the 200 mile advantage away from Tesla.

I don’t think it will be long before my 12 year old son looks at driving a gasoline powered vehicle like he does someone smoking a cigarette. We know smoking is hazardous to your health and does cause cancer. The same thing is true of ICE vehicles.

We are just not willing to admit it yet as we love our cars.

The automakers are just starting to give us EV’s we can love.

Thanks Elon. You’re the guy who got this party started. Hopefully you keep leading the way and not letting the Big 3 kill the EV like G.M. did in the past.

I don’t think the big automakers are going to rest unless you stumble and fall.

I don’t think Apple and Google will really be a threat to the Big 3 like Tesla. For some reason you’ve got them really scared even though you only build less than 10’000 cars a month.

I might just have to buy Tesla stock now that it back down to the Moon instead of Mars, a place you want to go. Once the price comes back down to Earth people wont think your shooting for the stars.

 

 

 

 

Chevy Bolt. Tesla Killer?

The Chevrolet 2017 Bolt EV

2017 Chevrolet Bolt

From what I’ve seen of the 2017 Chevrolet Bolt it is an impressive car.

A price tag of less than $30k  after tax breaks, 200 plus miles of range. Fold flat seats, lot’s of safety features and a rear view mirror that doubles as a rear view monitor. What’s not to like?

 

But will it kill the elusive not yet produced Tesla 3 as many predict? I doubt it. Contrary to popular belief, range isn’t everything.

What Tesla has that Chevrolet, and every other EV manufacturer doesn’t, are the following:

  • Supercharger Network.
  • Direct Sales
  • Their only cars are EV’s

Why is that important?

You can have a 200 mile range but if you don’t have anyplace to charge the car at a reasonable cost, and in a reasonable amount of time, the only thing that 200 mile range does is let you get farther from home before you have to stop for the night to recharge.

Most franchise dealers either don’t want to or don’t know how to sell an all electric vehicle. If you don’t walk into a car dealer asking to drive or buy an EV they won’t even tell you they have one. Try walking into a dealer some day and tell them you’re looking for something that 99% of the time all you do is drive to work and back and usually less than 70 miles a day and see what they tell you to buy.

What it will do, make Tesla up their game on standard equipment. The Tesla 3 won’t be able to sell less car than Chevrolet. But neither will any other EV manufacturer.

But, that brings me to another question. How many and in what States will Chevrolet actually make the car available? Do they really want to sell this car? Is it just another compliance car?

While California residents will probably buy the majority of Bolts, it will put Nissan on notice. The Nissan Leaf is getting old. Even with the new 110 mile battery it’s still like a 4 year old iPhone for the price of a new one.

The Ford Focus EV is still the best buy in my book and with an improved range of 100 plus miles and DC Charging will make it as useful as the Bolt and if it keeps it’s $30k price tag with all the standard equipment it has now it’s a far better deal than any other EV out there.

My favorite pricy EV’s are still the VW Golf SEL, Kia Soul EV and Mercedes B Class. They are going to have to make the interior of the Bolt really nice to compete in that market. Even VW had to unload a bunch of SL Models for $99 a month for 3 years last December. Stripped down models don’t sell well anymore.  The Leaf S is like buying a flip phone at a smartphone price.

I see some real deals in the near future on other EV’s when the Bolt comes out. If like most people, 80 miles of range works for you, like it does for me.  A similar featured compliance car like the Focus at $20k after Tax Rebate will be the better deal.

The biggest problem GM will have is that EV buyers usually know what they need and know how to do the math. And how many EV buyers “want” a Chevrolet? Lot’s of them want a Tesla. I know I do. They just haven’t made one that makes economic sense for the average person.

What it might do is help them sell more Volts. A car that is similarly priced, has suitable EV range for 99% of the time and can drive cross country once every few years to visit grandma.