Tag Archives: General Motors

Telsa 3, is it worth $60k

As many of you have a read my blog in the past know I’m a big fan of Tesla and Elon Musk.

Many of you may have read that Tesla is on track now to build 5,000 Model 3’s a week or more.

You also know that the Tesla game plan was to work their way down to building a car for the common man. Well, sorry, in my estimation they are no where near that goal, yet.

Apparently Tesla has invited all 500,000 or so people who put down a $1000 deposit to order their car. Remember when they said they would fill orders from the first to last but west coast to east coast? And we all know that right now that even if you don’t configure a single upgrade the car is going to cost $50k before sales tax and tax breaks. For me that would be $46,500 after the sales tax and $7.5k tax rebate.

In reality though once I choose a paint color other than black ($1k), the wheels that aren’t ugly($1.5k), the dual motor option ($4k) and the $5k advanced cruise control (auto-pilot) I’m at $60k is serious coin. O.K. so is $46,000.

This is not a Model S. Which configured about the same way would only be $20k more. Yet a far more useful car. A car that can fit the family for a long cross country trip. A car that gets free supercharging (with referral code). If you can afford $60k why not $80k?

And all this for a car brand that is about as reliable as Cell Phone service was in it’s infancy.

What’s it like to be turning left across traffic and have the the power steering stop working? Ask Marques Brownlee.

What’s it like to be driving along and have your screen go blank? Ask Ben Sullins.

Ben and his wife talk about why you really want this version because it’s the best battery for the buck and how having the most battery you can buy to get the best useful range possible only to say just a few minutes later how it would be great if the car could comfortably fit their family and gear for longer trips.

Like most people I want a Tesla because it doesn’t use gas, oil, spark plugs and mufflers. It eliminates the complexity of an internal combustion engine. The brakes last longer because of regenerative braking. But most of all the promise of autonomous driving.

Yes, I want a Tesla because of the advanced driving aids and potential of autonomous driving. But it’s still not that advanced. Adaptive cruise control and lane keeping assist isn’t really that advanced by todays standards. Tesla is in the same stage the iPhone was at the beginning when people thought they could use it as a phone. I have no doubt they will get there, one day. Today they are counting on the threshold of pain theory.

Could I change my mind. Maybe if I get inside one and take it for a few test drives. After all, that’s how I ended up married. Also not a financially rational decision. I haven’t been attached to a single car as long as I’ve been attached to my wife though.

Are there other cars worth looking at. More functional, almost as pretty but not quite the trophy wife the Tesla 3 is?

If you’ve read my previous posts you know I’m not a fan of the Bolt. And probably never will be. I don’t fit in it and they will never overcome that obstacle. I’m still a big fan of the Ford Focus EV but Ford isn’t so that could be a problem in the future. I am intrigued by the new Nissan Leaf. A car possibly taking a second look at now that Tesla hasn’t yet met its promise of a $35k car without rebates. When it does and it’s not as stripped as a VW Golf EV S Model whose SEL Model I actually like they might have something.

I hope Elon sells his 400,000 or so reservations the higher priced models. Because that’s what it’s going to take to get to the $35k car. If 300,000 people are waiting for the cheaper car like me, I’m not to sure he will get there. But if a rocket can take off and land safely he might just pull it off.

I’m telling rooting for you Elon. Hopefully you don’t end up like Nicola did.

 

 

Tesla 3, will it kill BMW?

Not only no, but hell no.

Toyota introduced the first Prius in 1996. And it wasn’t sold in the U.S. till 2000. Most car makers didn’t take the Prius serious for years and even today offer very few hybrid and even fewer fully electric vehicles. And almost 20 years later the Prius or any hybrid aren’t sales leaders by any stretch of the imagination.

Even before the Prius G.M. built the EV1. And the promptly killed it 4 years later. It had a cult following but had G.M. kept it around I doubt it would have made much traction. It was a basic car with little luxury and of limited use. And for that same reason I bet the Bolt won’t do a whole lot better. Almost every other EV currently made or coming soon to a dealer near you are luxury cars. And we can thank Tesla for that. Even the Tesla 3 is going to be nice.

Tesla introduced the first Tesla, the Roadster in 2008 at the beginning of the worst economy since the Great Depression. In 2012 the Model S hit the streets and less than 5 years later luxury car makers have realized that they have lost a lot of sales to Tesla. Luxury six figure sales.

Once the Model 3 comes out BMW and Even Ford and Chevy are not going to lose many sales. Tesla won’t be able to keep up with the demand. As long as BMW, Mercedes and Porsche/Audi/VW, not a small company by any measure have far more capacity to build cars people want. They even have them within a year or two of being on showroom floors.

Tesla on the other hand is constrained by limited production capability. There is a site, teslanomics.com that has a Tesla 3 delivery estimator.

If you don’t already own a Tesla and don’t live in California and put down your $1k today you won’t see your car for 2 years.

Maybe the U.S. and Japanese carmakers will see that electric cars are not only here to stay but about to change the way we think about transportation.

Plug-in Hybrids, Boon or Bane?

There are still a lot of people that are afraid to buy an all electric car. It’s hard to blame them as most people think they need far more range than they actually do.

Sixty-one percent of drivers never drive more than 50 miles one way ever.  Twenty-one percent never drive more than 200 miles one way. (https://ark-invest.com/research/electric-vehicles).

“About 8% of workers in the USA have commutes of an hour or longer, and nearly 600,000 full-time workers endure “megacommutes” of at least an hour-and-a-half and 50 miles, according to new U.S. Census data on commuting.

The national average, one-way daily commute is 25.5 minutes, and 4.3% of the nation’s workers work from home. The data is from the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey for 2011.” (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/03/05/americans-commutes-not-getting-longer/1963409/)

If the average commute is 26 minutes and the average speed in 60 MPH then the average one way commute is 26 miles or less. And it’s probably a lot less as many people spend much of their commutes in rush hour traffic. The real average commute is probably 20 miles or less.

Other than having a fantasy in their mind about, how could you possibly live with a car that has less than a 200 mile range and that you can’t drive cross country, most people would be fine with a car with an 80-120 miles of range. That is until the rise of plugin hybrids.

All the car magazines and shows encourage this fantasy as well. Well, as long as people think they need to drive 200 miles a day then let’s give them 200 miles, or better yet, 400 miles on a tank of gas with 15-20 miles of plug in charge range. That way they can drive 95% of the time using battery power and maybe 5% of the time on gas power. And that one or two weekends a year where they actually make that 200 mile spur of the moment trip (sarcasm) they don’t have to go rent a car for the trip.

And that’s where the Plugin Hybrid is a boon. 99% of the folks who buy them will spend most of the time on battery power. And it doesn’t hurt that they will spend 100% of it in the HOV lane. Especially is cities like Phoenix where you can’t pay to use it.

They can also plug in to a 110 outlet and be fully charged by the end of a ball game. No need for expensive installs of 220 dedicated chargers. 3 hours and your good to go.

So why are they a bane?

They take much of the limited public chargers. Pure BEV’s can’t charge when they really need it. When I first bought my Ford Focus EV 2 years ago the plugin hybrid was a unicorn.

I could go to work where there were 6 spots with Level 2 chargers and you might find 2 or 3 cars there. A couple Leafs and maybe a Tesla very now and then. Now 2 years later and you will rarely find one open space. And most if not all of the spaces have Volts, maybe a CMAX or two and maybe a Fusion. And the biggest problem is that almost half the cars are there for 3-4 days as a majority are pilots or Flight Attendants. That’s a lot of wasted charge potential. A level 2 charger can charge a Volt 3-5 hours from empty. What are the odds it’s empty when it gets there? Many of the other hybrids that only have a 15 mile range will charge ion half that time. They need charge cords that plug in on the lights in the parking lot. Not level 2 chargers.

Another place I go often, although not more than 2-3 times a month is 40 miles one way. It’s the Hockey Stadium. There are 2 free chargers there. Once again you’ll usually find the hybrids plugged in there as most of the BEV’s can’t take a chance that they don’t get to plug in. I sure as heck can’t. 80 highway miles in a Focus or even a Leaf isn’t going to happen even if you get to start out with a full charge.

If you drive a pure BEV that’s not a Tesla you probably have less than 80 miles of range. And while this is generally enough to get home and back from work, it’s not always enough to get home and back and then run a few errands on top of it.

If you drive a plugin because you want to clean up the environment and want others to do the same you are going to need to stop using public chargers. Just because you can or want as much free electricity as you can mooch. I’m sure that dollar a day your getting is going to make or break you.

Instead if you to get more people to follow your example you are going to need to be good stewards and let the folks who actually made the ultimate sacrifice and didn’t buy an insurance engine use those level 2 chargers.

Until more pure BEVs are sold no one is going to put large amounts of chargers out there. Not everyone out there has the vision of Elon Musk. Even GM says that they are all in on BEV’s but don’t think they need to build a charger infrastructure. And since their only BEV’s are either hybrids or have a 200 mile range why should they?

The Volt is outselling the Tesla S. And the Bolt isn’t that far behind. Pretty soon if you own a BEV with less than 200 miles of range you better hope you don’t need to charge on the road or at work.

Even Tesla’s dirty secret is that many of their chargers are ICED out a lot of the time.

The good news is there should lots of really cheap BEV’s hitting the used market here in the next year or two.

If you are  like me have never used Lyft. Use the code DOGFOOD and get up to $20 off your first ride.

If you have never used Uber. Use the code Z4JRI for $20 off your first ride.

And if you still drive a car that has a Internal Combustion Engine make it more environmentally friendly by using Amsoil Synthetic Lubricants. For more information go to www.BDPSYN.com

Thanks for reading. Leave you comments below and make sure you share and like this post with your friends on Facebook and Twitter.

The Chevrolet Bolt, Buy or Pass.

When you read all the reviews about the Chevrolet Bolt it sounds like nothing we’ve ever seen before. An engineering marvel of the 21st century.

The Chevy Bolt is all of the following:

2017 MOTOR TREND CAR OF THE YEAR, 2017 NORTH AMERICAN CAR OF THE YEAR,

2017 GREEN CAR OF THE YEAR®, AWARDED BY GREEN CAR JOURNAL

But probably best of all as far as I am concerned it is,

2017 IIHS TOP SAFETY PICK WHEN EQUIPPED WITH OPTIONAL DRIVER CONFIDENCE II PACKAGE.

Add to that it gets an EPA estimated 238 miles of range on a full charge. Only the Tesla gets as much or more. And the base price of the cheapest Tesla S is almost twice as much as a Chevrolet Bolt.

But it’s not really some engineering marvel or some great design.

As for the design it’s a lot like the Honda Fit. The battery technology is not very special either. It’s just a bigger battery pack (60 kWh) than has been put in any car that size to date.

There are also plenty of cars on the market with backup cameras, parking sensors and traffic alerts and adaptive cruise control. Today you can order them on many cars midrange trim packages.

So why don’t I love the Bolt. Like almost everyone else who finds the marriage of automotive technology and electricity a compelling proposition?  I love that cars are electrifying. I also love that they have cameras, cross traffic alert and a myriad of other features designed to make driving safer. These are now a must on any future vehicle I buy. As is keyless entry and starting. Try doing a car that needs a key to start after doing one that doesn’t.

On the Chevy Bolt you can get all the latest safety and convenience options for a price. You just can’t get comfortable if you are slightly wider than your average 30 year old.

And just like the Tesla there is a trade off between battery technology and fit and finish. You can buy a Porsche Panamera for the same price as a Tesla. The Panamera is far nicer inside and out.

Even at the Premier trim level the Bolt seats are small. The cabin trim is basic as well. But you do get a cheap leather instead of just plastic. I’d feel far more comfortable if they chose to use IKEA to design the interior, sort of like the BMW i3.

The Bolt is a very small car. They say it feels much bigger than it really is. It doesn’t, it looks much bigger than it really is. That’s a big difference. What they really mean is that there is a fair amount of legroom for the back seat compared to your average compact car. That is true. Since the roof doesn’t slope and there is little cargo space unless the seats are folded down it does have more room than the Focus but no more than a Honda Fit. I’d probably buy the Honda Fit.

Like the Chevy Volt, I don’t need to drive this car to know I don’t like it. All I had to do is sit in it. The difference is, in the Volt I like sitting in the drivers seat. If you are a driver it is comfortable. If you ever have to be a back seat passenger and you are over 5′ 6″ you’re probably not going to like it, at all, not even for a 10 minutes drive to get lunch. My 13 year old son was 5′ 6″ last year when I wrote about the Volt 2.0, today he is 6′ 1″ (1 inch taller than I am) and he didn’t like sitting in the back seat of the Volt, back then leg room was an issue. Today he would have the same issue I did as well. You needed to put your head back in the window so the headliner didn’t hit your head.

In the Bolt both of us can sit comfortably, in the back seat. He can sit comfortably in the front seat. His 32″ waist fits fine. My 40″ waist not so much. When I first get in the car and sit down about 2 inches of my butt is hanging off the seat. Then I have to slide right till my right hip hits the side of the seat. The front seat hip room is 2. 3 inches less than the Ford Focus Electric. If you fit in a Honda Fit you will be ok with that as front hip room is almost identical.

For $15k more than the Honda it would have been nice if they had just made the car just a couple of inches wider and a couple of inches longer. Would that have added that much more if anything to the price?

They should have made the car more the size of the Mercedes B250e and less like the Honda Fit or Nissan Leaf.

The Mercedes B250e is by far the nicest Compact BEV I have driven. It’s only drawbacks are the range and it’s only sold in Compliance States.

So should you buy a Chevrolet Bolt? If you want to pay about $44k (before tax incentives with the highest trim and almost every option) for a $20k economy car that has a (according to GM) $8.7k battery pack. No, not if that is the true cost of the battery. That means you are paying a lot for an economy car. Even after the government picks up another $7.5k.

That’s probably why a lot of people are waiting for the Tesla 3 or buying hybrids like the Hyundai Sonata.  O.K., they aren’t buying hybrids, or sedans for that matter. Gas is so cheap that people are once again going down that road to getting stuck with a vehicle that in the future is going to cost them a lot for gas.

The only thing less smart is paying $20k more up front for an electric car that fits in the back of most of the SUV’s or Pickup Trucks out there.

So my recommendation is to take a pass, even though there needs to be people buying these things so that automakers not only continue to build BEV’s but also improve BEVs.

Buying this car for me would be like buying a pair of shoes that is a half size to small. They may not bother you that much at first but give it a few minutes.

Maybe the GM/Lyft partnership will buy lots of them. Although I doubt that’s going to work well. Right now when you call Uber or Lyft you usually get a pretty nice car. Some of the time you get picked up in a compact car. At least right now the odds are I will get picked up in a bigger car. Add lots of Bolts to Lyft and Uber will be my first choice. Actually that’s not fair, I have never used Lyft. I always use Uber.

If you are  like me have never used Lyft. Use the code DOGFOOD and get up to $20 off your first ride.

If you have never used Uber. Use the code Z4JRI for $20 off your first ride.

And if you still drive a car that has a Internal Combustion Engine make it more environmentally friendly by using Amsoil Synthetic Lubricants. For more information go to www.BDPSYN.com

Thanks for reading. Leave you comments below and make sure you share and like this post with your friends on Facebook and Twitter.

Trump, Reagan, Alternative Energy.

Back in Junior High I was a bit of an Alex Keaton (Michael J. Fox) from Family Ties. I wrote a report on how to invest in stock and why Tyco Labs was the place to invest. They had this great technology called a photovoltaic cell. Solar Energy was an idea whose time had finally arrived.

We had just been held hostage by OPEC and people had to wait in lines to buy gas, at was then, record prices of over a dollar a gallon.

Jimmy Carter had put solar panels on the White House to set an example of how we could start on our way to energy independence.

Then Ronald Reagan got elected. There was no way that in his America we were going to conserve. We drive big cars, heat and cool our houses to whatever extreme we want. We are a big and powerful nation and can afford to waste as much as we want. And for the next 30 plus years that’s exactly what we did. Only communists suffer shortages.

Bush gave tax breaks to people who bought Hummers. And lots of people did. You still see a few of them around today. But they don’t make them anymore. They went by the wayside when many American Automakers went bankrupt.

American Automakers also gave up a lot of marketshare to Japanese automakers in the 80’s. Because like most commodities that don’t have competition the price of gas just kept going up. And that drove people to buy the smaller, better built more fuel efficient imports.

But for those who study history we can often find examples of history repeating itself.

So lets go back just a few years. After a major recession the US elected one of those un-American leaders. The kind that doesn’t believe in American Supremacy and actually promoted the notion that once again Americans should conserve energy, invest in alternative energy and have a lofty goal of getting 1 million electric cars on the road in just a few years.

But the first order of business was bailing out American Automakers. Something Reagan did with Chrysler back in the 1980’s now had to be done again 30 years later. Because we forgot that gas can get pretty expensive and building lots of big cars that get crappy gas milage hurts the economy when gas hit’s $3 a gallon. And when the only cars on your lot don’t sell anymore bankruptcy is a given.

Well, the economy recovered because we have cheap gas once again. Or at least we perceive it as cheap because once you hit $3 a gallon $2 looks really cheap. Almost as cheap as $1 where gas hit at the height of the recession. I’ll bet if gas hits $3 now people will still perceive it as being pretty cheap.

So now after 8 years of that commie socialist we have once again elected a President who acknowledges the Supremacy of the United States of America.

His first order of business is to incentivize 19th century technology. Make coal great again. His second order of business was to make sure we can burn lots of fossil fuel. Keep it cheap so people can burn lots of it. There can’t be an iceberg hiding below the surface using that strategy. No,literally. All the icebergs are melting. Deny that this strategy has environmental consequences at all costs. Science is suspect. What do scientists know anyway.

And worst of all spreading the myth that restrictions on environmental pollution makes us uncompetitive in the world.

Trump is Reagan revisited. And I don’t mean that in a positive way.

This time the world is no longer looking for Americans to lead the way. We are way behind the power curve on implementing alternative energy.

Unlike the United States or China most of Europe and the UK does not have vast areas of unpopulated land mass. Most of France, Italy, Germany and the U.K.  have lots of people in very small areas. Their pollution problems are like ours of California prior to Nixon and The EPA or those pesky California Emission Standards.

Other countries are actually investing in technology to get off of fossil fuels. German automakers that were first pushed by Tesla and further pushed by their own greed and cheating emission rules with their diesel cars are now going all out on developing Electric Vehicles. Add that to their growing supply of solar power and other countries are leading the way into the 21st Century. Not the U.S.A.

What are American Automakers doing? Building as many SUV’s and Pickup Trucks they can churn out. And that is pretty much a sign that although many Americans feel that the economy still sucks that it really doesn’t. Poor people don’t buy $70k Automobiles, or do they? Well poor people don’t, but having a $1k a month payment and another $150 or more a month going to Mobil or BP can sure as heck make you feel like your broke. Especially if you have 2 of these in your driveway. Let gas hit $3 or $4 a gallon again and it won’t take long before another recession hits.

Another fallacy is that regulations make products cost more. Well let’s go back to the 1980’s. Factories used to just dispose of certain waste from production, much of it in small particles like the sawdust from mills.

Well there was this company called Torrit Donaldson. You might know who they are. They make filters for your car among other things.

They would also design collection systems that collect sawdust among other things. Now instead of these particulates being dumped in the air and garbage they make particle board and other products from them.

Both the mill and the filter maker, make money. Long term results are better. That’s how jobs and new technologies get created. Not by doubling down on burning toxins. Too bad Wall Street doesn’t care beyond the next quarter

So is their a silver lining in this Trump cloud?

Well just like the 1980’s businesses will continue to look for ways to make more money and people will continue to ask for innovation.

Tesla proved that you can make a compelling Electric Car. Germany and the U.K. have proven that solar and wind are competitive with nuclear and coal when you factor in the external costs that we in the U.S. don’t account for.

The only real question is will politics get in the way of the U.S.A. becoming a leader or will be relegated to the position of follower?

Will American Car Makers once again, for the third time misjudge where the market is headed. Maybe that’s why Tesla has a higher market cap than Ford or G.M.

One that it really doesn’t deserve as Tesla makes less cars in a year than the other automakers make in a week.

If only there was a military reason to develop alternative energy. When the Russians were beating us in space we moved heaven and earth to get their first.

And much of the technology that got us into space is driving most of the technology we have today. It’s not like we hadn’t given the Germans the lead in technology before. It took a World War to give us the drive to outsmart them as well.

I doubt beating ISIS will require a new modern energy that was easy to deploy almost anywhere.

Actually now that I think about it. What if we dropped a few solar panels connected to a battery that could power a radio or two and maybe some type of modern convenience that we could broadcast the truth to every village or town where the electricity infrastructure has been bombed out?

 

 

The 2017 Chevy Volt. Useful or not?

2017 Chevy Volt

The following are my opinions. If you own a Volt feel free to comment on what you like about the Volt and why.

I should have really posted a review of my 2015 Prius V before I wrote this one because I am basing this review on my likes and dislikes of that car. But here goes anyway.

I went to the Chevy dealer with the intention of looking at the new 2017 Chevy Volt. I have read many reviews and watched a lot of YouTube video on why people love the Volt. The reason you might not find many people who don’t like it online is because the people are either owners of the car or people who can’t not like it because they have money and ego on the line, or, people who count on dealers and manufactures to give them access to the car and need more cars for future reviews.

When I got to the dealership I turned in the first entrance. It turned out that was the service entrance. Instead of driving around I parked there and walked around to where an open Volt was sitting. After just sitting in it I had no desire to drive it. Why?

I guess I will start out with what I like since that’s a pretty short list. It gets about 50 miles of electric driving on a full charge. More than most people will need in a day. I actually like the way it looks. It make a very small car look very big. OK, not very big but far bigger that it actually is inside. It does have some very cool tech in it. Neat gauges and many advanced safety features if you choose the high end model. That’s the good. Now the reasons I chose not to drive it.

It has interior dimensions that are very close to a Honda Fit or Toyota Prius C. Both of which can hold more cargo. The second row headroom is almost 2 inches less than the Honda and the second row legroom is 4.6 inches less than the Honda. Yet, the car is 20 inches longer that the Honda. So it has more cargo space, right? No, it has 6 CUft less. Fold the back seats down in both and that difference is, not even listed for the Volt.

I am 6 feet tall. Not to tall to fit in the drivers seat. But if I can’t uncomfortably fit in the back seat of a car behind myself. It has little use to me. I might as well be buying a two seat car.

When I scrunched myself into the backseat by contorting to get through the door and turning my feet (size 13 shoes) sideways and then turning them forward I made the mistake of rising my head. I hid the headliner. I didn’t immediately lean my head backward so it was where the window comes up over my head. To sit n the most comfortable position possible I have to lean my head back.

Now I would probably never have to ride in the backseat but my 12 year old son would. He’s already 5′ 8″ and has a size 11 foot.

Could you use one if you have a baby? Um, maybe not. My wife drives our granddaughter around a lot. She has this massive baby seat that barely fits in a midsize car let alone a car with a back seat as small as a Volt.

When you watch all the youtube reviews I have no idea how small these guys have to be to sit in the back seat.

I hope the Chevrolet Bolt is way better than the Volt. Maybe they stole the design from the Honda Fit for the Bolt. I sure hope so.

 

Cult of Tesla (Motors)

In my last post I asked if Detroit should be worried about Tesla and the Tesla 3. I said that it would mostly effect the Germans and the BMW 3 series in particular.

Since I wrote that I have personally met 2 people that have put their money down to reserve a spot for a Tesla 3.

Oddly they are very much like me. They are not luxury car buyers. They don’t spend big bucks on status. They are Toyota and Honda buyers. They drive cars till they fall apart.

What else they have in common is they make 6 figure incomes. They would strongly fit in the category of the millionaire next door. They don’t show wealth, they have it.

Another thing they have in common is they embrace technology. They are the customers that Apple loves.

These are the same people that bought the second generation iPhone and iPad. The one that had shown some usefulness although not as much as today.

Why is this important? Quite frankly, the car doesn’t have to be perfect. The biggest complaint about the iPhone is that as a phone it sucks. Reliability is actually not all that great. Mostly because the network carriers that place the calls but there are bug fixes and software updates all the time.

Well, just like we have learned to tolerate less than perfect reliability from our phones we will allow the same annoyances from our cars. That is if the car is “special”. And the Tesla if anything is special.

Just look at Consumer Reports. In their initial tests the car broke the 100 point barrier. Yet when looking at long term reliability they can no longer recommend the car. Seriously?

You can’t really expect Tesla to compete with a Honda Civic or Toyota Camry. They are basically reliable transportation, but not much fun to drive. They are not as dull as driving a Prius or Yaris but there is no joy in flooring the accelerator on an entry ramp and reaching 60 MPH in 8-10 seconds.

The Tesla can have a few bugs and even need a trip or two to the Tesla version of the Genius Bar every now and then and people will still love it. As Consumer Reports bares out with there less than stellar reliability rating after the initial wow of 100 plus.

As long as the car performs the cool things fairly well people will tolerate a few bugs.

Driving an EV that can do 0-30 faster than almost any ICE car is pretty cool but having an EV that can do 0-60 in six seconds will make that trip to work just that much more fun. Then when you get on the highway having the car do most of the driving for you, how great is that.

Tesla is attacking 3 markets here, Luxury German small sedans, Japanese midsize sedans and Apple. Yes, Apple. This is where all your customers who buy the next upgrade are about to spend their dollars very soon. If Apple wants people to buy their watch they might want to start working on apps that interface with Tesla right away.

I predict that Tesla will follow the trajectory of Apple all the way to where Apple is today.

Apple like Microsoft will write software that runs in most brands of car. Tesla will produce the cars and the software that people who just want a solution that works, most of the time.

I used to build my own computers and spend hours experimenting with the latest modems and graphics cards. Then about 2006 I gave all that up and since I went Mac I never looked back.

My next car will probably be a Bolt or eGolf. My next car after that. A Tesla S when the price hits around $40k, maybe a second generation 3 when it hits $35k with all the bells and whistles.

Just this last year I stopped doing most of my own car repairs. With any luck brakes will be off my list of repairs as well.

I am looking forward to the day that auto mechanics wear lab coats and not overalls.

Coming form a guy who sells Synthetic Motor Oils that says a lot! Amsoil, the next best thing to being oil free.

 

Tesla 3, Should Detroit be scared?

It’s been a little over a month since the Tesla 3 was unveiled and I haven’t posted anything about it till today. Odd for a blog about electric vehicles. After all, Tesla is the EV by which all other EV’s are measured.

Well, for one thing the Tesla 3 is little more than a prototype, just like the Chevy Bolt. Neither car is in production or it’s final form. All we have seen of both is a body and and some basic interior shots. Neither of these cars floats my boat, yet.

But what I find interesting about both these cars is, that while neither is in production both are setting standards for what an EV has to be to appeal to a mass market. Or at least what people think they need to be able to appeal to a mass market.

Let’s look at the supposed needs to make this car appeal to more than just a few early adopters who run out and buy the latest product Apple has to offer.

A car with a range of 200 miles. Why 200 miles. Because that’s about the average range of a gas powered vehicle. The reality though is people don’t drive 200 miles a day. They drive 200 miles between fill ups. That could be 6 hours or 6 days. For most people that’s once or twice a week. Not daily.

Right now most EV’s have a range of 70 miles. 95% of the time that’s really enough. Most people with EV’s plug in every night. Ask your average EV’r and they will tell you they love never having to stop for gas and that the 70 miles they get is more than they need most of the time. While they have a second vehicle in the family the EV gets driven the most and the second car rarely gets used. The person who drives the least drives the ICE car. Maybe once a month it goes for that drive to the long weekend vacation. Maybe.

Currently there are several EV’s like the Ford Focus, Kia Soul and VW eGolf that can do this no problem and for less than $35k. And that brings us to the next holy grail number.

Priced less than $35k. Really, that’s the number that it takes to get people to run out in masse and buy an EV? I think not. That might kill sales of the BMW 3 Series or other German Cars in it’s class but it’s not going to kill sales of the average family sedan.

The average midsize sedan sells more cars in 2 months than BMW sells 3’s in a year. And they sell on average for a lot less than $35k. The top end is $35k. Not everyone buys the most expensive trim level. Most don’t.

The Tesla 3 and the Bolt and all the rest of the EV’s out there with the only exceptions being the Tesla S and X are all compact cars. Tesla 3 will most likely have an edge here as the 3 is on a compact frame but since it was built from the ground up as an EV it will make far better use of the space available.

And now lets talk about the real elephant in the room. Tesla can’t use sales of their big SUV’s and Pick Up Trucks to subsidize the sales of the 3. They will be selling a lot of CAFE credits to the other automakers but they can’t charge $80k for an Escalade and sell a Volt for $10k less than it costs to build. And since we know that very few 3’s are going to roll of the assembly line with zero options just like very few BMW’s roll of the assembly line with zero options just like a BMW 3 the average price of a Tesla 3 will likely top $50k.

Who want’s to drive a compact car cross country? Not me. I really don’t think that many people drive their Tesla’s across the country now. A few just to prove they could and get their video on youtube but really? The Tesla 3 and the rest of the EV’s out there are only going more than 100 miles in day when the person moves from one city to another. Or like my Ford Focus that needed to get from L.A. to Phoenix because it was cheaper and readily available in California.

There is another problem that all automakers are going to have with their EV’s. I don’t care if it’s Tesla, Honda, Nissan or Apple. Not everyone like the way a car looks. To me the Leaf isn’t cute or futuristic, it’s plain ugly. I like the Mazda 6 but I don’t like the way the Mazda 3 looks. Or should I say the Tesla 3 since the same guy designed the Mazda and the Tesla.

I do like the way the Ford Focus and the VW eGolf look. I’ll wait till they have t drop their price to sell their compliance cars that starting next year will get about 110 miles of range. More than enough for 99.9% of what I need.

Will they have autopilot? Probably not. If I want all the killer new tech I might just have to wait and see if Chevy really produces the Bolt in a configuration they have said they will launch with Lyft, the other car service. Maybe the Bolt will save Lyft, or the Lyft will produce a bigger market for the Bolt. I’m not sure how that will work or who it will help.

What I do know for sure is that EV’s are here to stay this time around. Tesla has forced Detroit to take them seriously this time around. People want cars that run on electricity and they want cars that can pretty much drive themselves while we text and read email or Facebook.

While Tesla has close to 400k people on an interest list that have ponied up $1k a piece for the privilege of standing in line hoping to get one they have lit a fire under GM and probably BMW and Mercedes to get their own versions out ASAP.

I have not put $1k on the line to hold my place. I’m counting on one of the other companies to get out there and compete against Tesla that has a dealer network and service centers near my house to get the job done first.

I’m actually betting Audi or VW might beat them to the punch.

I’m not counting Tesla out though. Tesla is going to sell a lot of cars. They are going to be the Apple of the auto industry. They are going to produce a specialty product that lots of people want and can be special for quite a while. They are going to disrupt the usual way of doing business selling cars over the next 20 years. Apple might even catch up to them or buy them one day.

But right now my purchase dollars are not with Tesla. But it took me till 2006 to dump my Windows computers. Now I’m all Apple. Maybe by 2026 I’ll be all in on Tesla. Just not today.

 

Tesla Stock Down! Cheap Gas Kills EV Car Sales, or Does It?

Will lower gas prices have a large effect on EV sales?

To a certain extent but there is a way that car makers could diminish the cheap gas advantage.

The Tesla has never been a car whose sales have been driven by high fuel prices. It’s appeal has been in performance and technology as well as status and muted luxury.

Anybody who has driven an EV loves the real world acceleration. By real world I mean 0-30. The burst of energy to change lanes or get on the freeway.

The average car takes much longer from a full stop to 30 MPH than an EV. From 30-60 it’s about the same time but the gasoline car spend from 30-60 catching up.

0-60 in 4 seconds is nice but in an ICE car that requires tens of thousands of dollars and an average MPG of around 12 MPG everyday to do that the very fews times you need that power. You just don’t need or can’t really enjoy your 700HP vehicle as much as you would like to.

Your 2 seat loud and obnoxious sports cars are the proverbial 12 inch penis. Impressive looking but not to many places that can handle all of it.

The only place cars like those have any use other than getting you a superficial mate are on the track. And they are actually more likely to get you tickets than they are a mate if you are not that good looking anyway that you need to buy the car to have women look at you.

Add to that most people with cars like that never take them to a track like many Jeep or 4×4 owners never take them off road and you have probably explained why most Americans think they are broke and don’t like to pay taxes.

Car makers have to stop only building tiny compact EV’s as well. While they might get the job done they aren’t impressive at all, don’t tell me that size doesn’t matter. Small might be able to fit in any parking spot but only the city dweller sees that as an advantage.  We don’t live in Europe.

Most Americans don’t fit in a Smart EV or Fiat EV.  We are large people. Many of us are over 6 feet tall and many are over 200 pounds. Or both. We need cars we fit in.

In order to get more people into the cars they need to be real world cars. The e-Golf and Mercedes B-Class are a nice start but they are still too expensive for only having 80 miles of range.

The new cars being announced with 200 mile ranges will start selling if you really build enough and sell them outside of the few CARB States.

They will outsell the Chevy Volt which still isn’t a 5 passenger car. The rear leg room is still to small. And the battery down the middle is just as bad as the Ford and their batteries across the truck or cargo bay. They will not find many new buyers. They will just keep many of the buyers they have. Unless they change to a flat battery pack under the floor.

The greatest thing about owning an EV, or even a Hybrid,  is rarely or ever having to stop to buy gas. Even if the price of gas is $1 per gallon. The approximate equilibrium price of gas to electricity as fuel for cars.

It really is nice to come home at night and just plug in your car instead of having to wait in line and pump gas.

The worst part now about driving any car is filling up the gas tank. It’s rare that I ever get the gas station to myself. Then after waiting in line for 5-10 minutes, I have to get out, swipe my card and spend 5 minutes looking at the guy next to me that cut in front or committed some breach of gas station etiquette.

With an EV you just pull into the garage, plug in and walk into the house and go about your normal business. You wouldn’t even think of buying a phone where you had to go to the store and buy new batteries every few days. Then through the dead batteries on the street like the emissions form your tail pipe.

With the advent of the 100 mile plus battery, which is enough for most peoples daily commute, that will be shortly followed by the 200 mile battery, the plug it in at night car that can work for 100% of your daily driving needs will be all you really need.

Add to that, no more oil changes, tune ups and all those other regular maintenance items that an internal combustion engine car has and you will be hooked.

That doesn’t even included all the environmental benefits.

A 200 mile range, 5 seats and a price tag of $30k in a sporty car like a VW Golf or Kia Soul might just be what it takes to get this evolution in transportation to catch on.

It will be interesting to see how Tesla responds to these challengers that are now taking the 200 mile advantage away from Tesla.

I don’t think it will be long before my 12 year old son looks at driving a gasoline powered vehicle like he does someone smoking a cigarette. We know smoking is hazardous to your health and does cause cancer. The same thing is true of ICE vehicles.

We are just not willing to admit it yet as we love our cars.

The automakers are just starting to give us EV’s we can love.

Thanks Elon. You’re the guy who got this party started. Hopefully you keep leading the way and not letting the Big 3 kill the EV like G.M. did in the past.

I don’t think the big automakers are going to rest unless you stumble and fall.

I don’t think Apple and Google will really be a threat to the Big 3 like Tesla. For some reason you’ve got them really scared even though you only build less than 10’000 cars a month.

I might just have to buy Tesla stock now that it back down to the Moon instead of Mars, a place you want to go. Once the price comes back down to Earth people wont think your shooting for the stars.

 

 

 

 

Chevy Bolt. Tesla Killer?

The Chevrolet 2017 Bolt EV

2017 Chevrolet Bolt

From what I’ve seen of the 2017 Chevrolet Bolt it is an impressive car.

A price tag of less than $30k  after tax breaks, 200 plus miles of range. Fold flat seats, lot’s of safety features and a rear view mirror that doubles as a rear view monitor. What’s not to like?

 

But will it kill the elusive not yet produced Tesla 3 as many predict? I doubt it. Contrary to popular belief, range isn’t everything.

What Tesla has that Chevrolet, and every other EV manufacturer doesn’t, are the following:

  • Supercharger Network.
  • Direct Sales
  • Their only cars are EV’s

Why is that important?

You can have a 200 mile range but if you don’t have anyplace to charge the car at a reasonable cost, and in a reasonable amount of time, the only thing that 200 mile range does is let you get farther from home before you have to stop for the night to recharge.

Most franchise dealers either don’t want to or don’t know how to sell an all electric vehicle. If you don’t walk into a car dealer asking to drive or buy an EV they won’t even tell you they have one. Try walking into a dealer some day and tell them you’re looking for something that 99% of the time all you do is drive to work and back and usually less than 70 miles a day and see what they tell you to buy.

What it will do, make Tesla up their game on standard equipment. The Tesla 3 won’t be able to sell less car than Chevrolet. But neither will any other EV manufacturer.

But, that brings me to another question. How many and in what States will Chevrolet actually make the car available? Do they really want to sell this car? Is it just another compliance car?

While California residents will probably buy the majority of Bolts, it will put Nissan on notice. The Nissan Leaf is getting old. Even with the new 110 mile battery it’s still like a 4 year old iPhone for the price of a new one.

The Ford Focus EV is still the best buy in my book and with an improved range of 100 plus miles and DC Charging will make it as useful as the Bolt and if it keeps it’s $30k price tag with all the standard equipment it has now it’s a far better deal than any other EV out there.

My favorite pricy EV’s are still the VW Golf SEL, Kia Soul EV and Mercedes B Class. They are going to have to make the interior of the Bolt really nice to compete in that market. Even VW had to unload a bunch of SL Models for $99 a month for 3 years last December. Stripped down models don’t sell well anymore.  The Leaf S is like buying a flip phone at a smartphone price.

I see some real deals in the near future on other EV’s when the Bolt comes out. If like most people, 80 miles of range works for you, like it does for me.  A similar featured compliance car like the Focus at $20k after Tax Rebate will be the better deal.

The biggest problem GM will have is that EV buyers usually know what they need and know how to do the math. And how many EV buyers “want” a Chevrolet? Lot’s of them want a Tesla. I know I do. They just haven’t made one that makes economic sense for the average person.

What it might do is help them sell more Volts. A car that is similarly priced, has suitable EV range for 99% of the time and can drive cross country once every few years to visit grandma.