Tag Archives: California

Trump, Reagan, Alternative Energy.

Back in Junior High I was a bit of an Alex Keaton (Michael J. Fox) from Family Ties. I wrote a report on how to invest in stock and why Tyco Labs was the place to invest. They had this great technology called a photovoltaic cell. Solar Energy was an idea whose time had finally arrived.

We had just been held hostage by OPEC and people had to wait in lines to buy gas, at was then, record prices of over a dollar a gallon.

Jimmy Carter had put solar panels on the White House to set an example of how we could start on our way to energy independence.

Then Ronald Reagan got elected. There was no way that in his America we were going to conserve. We drive big cars, heat and cool our houses to whatever extreme we want. We are a big and powerful nation and can afford to waste as much as we want. And for the next 30 plus years that’s exactly what we did. Only communists suffer shortages.

Bush gave tax breaks to people who bought Hummers. And lots of people did. You still see a few of them around today. But they don’t make them anymore. They went by the wayside when many American Automakers went bankrupt.

American Automakers also gave up a lot of marketshare to Japanese automakers in the 80’s. Because like most commodities that don’t have competition the price of gas just kept going up. And that drove people to buy the smaller, better built more fuel efficient imports.

But for those who study history we can often find examples of history repeating itself.

So lets go back just a few years. After a major recession the US elected one of those un-American leaders. The kind that doesn’t believe in American Supremacy and actually promoted the notion that once again Americans should conserve energy, invest in alternative energy and have a lofty goal of getting 1 million electric cars on the road in just a few years.

But the first order of business was bailing out American Automakers. Something Reagan did with Chrysler back in the 1980’s now had to be done again 30 years later. Because we forgot that gas can get pretty expensive and building lots of big cars that get crappy gas milage hurts the economy when gas hit’s $3 a gallon. And when the only cars on your lot don’t sell anymore bankruptcy is a given.

Well, the economy recovered because we have cheap gas once again. Or at least we perceive it as cheap because once you hit $3 a gallon $2 looks really cheap. Almost as cheap as $1 where gas hit at the height of the recession. I’ll bet if gas hits $3 now people will still perceive it as being pretty cheap.

So now after 8 years of that commie socialist we have once again elected a President who acknowledges the Supremacy of the United States of America.

His first order of business is to incentivize 19th century technology. Make coal great again. His second order of business was to make sure we can burn lots of fossil fuel. Keep it cheap so people can burn lots of it. There can’t be an iceberg hiding below the surface using that strategy. No,literally. All the icebergs are melting. Deny that this strategy has environmental consequences at all costs. Science is suspect. What do scientists know anyway.

And worst of all spreading the myth that restrictions on environmental pollution makes us uncompetitive in the world.

Trump is Reagan revisited. And I don’t mean that in a positive way.

This time the world is no longer looking for Americans to lead the way. We are way behind the power curve on implementing alternative energy.

Unlike the United States or China most of Europe and the UK does not have vast areas of unpopulated land mass. Most of France, Italy, Germany and the U.K.  have lots of people in very small areas. Their pollution problems are like ours of California prior to Nixon and The EPA or those pesky California Emission Standards.

Other countries are actually investing in technology to get off of fossil fuels. German automakers that were first pushed by Tesla and further pushed by their own greed and cheating emission rules with their diesel cars are now going all out on developing Electric Vehicles. Add that to their growing supply of solar power and other countries are leading the way into the 21st Century. Not the U.S.A.

What are American Automakers doing? Building as many SUV’s and Pickup Trucks they can churn out. And that is pretty much a sign that although many Americans feel that the economy still sucks that it really doesn’t. Poor people don’t buy $70k Automobiles, or do they? Well poor people don’t, but having a $1k a month payment and another $150 or more a month going to Mobil or BP can sure as heck make you feel like your broke. Especially if you have 2 of these in your driveway. Let gas hit $3 or $4 a gallon again and it won’t take long before another recession hits.

Another fallacy is that regulations make products cost more. Well let’s go back to the 1980’s. Factories used to just dispose of certain waste from production, much of it in small particles like the sawdust from mills.

Well there was this company called Torrit Donaldson. You might know who they are. They make filters for your car among other things.

They would also design collection systems that collect sawdust among other things. Now instead of these particulates being dumped in the air and garbage they make particle board and other products from them.

Both the mill and the filter maker, make money. Long term results are better. That’s how jobs and new technologies get created. Not by doubling down on burning toxins. Too bad Wall Street doesn’t care beyond the next quarter

So is their a silver lining in this Trump cloud?

Well just like the 1980’s businesses will continue to look for ways to make more money and people will continue to ask for innovation.

Tesla proved that you can make a compelling Electric Car. Germany and the U.K. have proven that solar and wind are competitive with nuclear and coal when you factor in the external costs that we in the U.S. don’t account for.

The only real question is will politics get in the way of the U.S.A. becoming a leader or will be relegated to the position of follower?

Will American Car Makers once again, for the third time misjudge where the market is headed. Maybe that’s why Tesla has a higher market cap than Ford or G.M.

One that it really doesn’t deserve as Tesla makes less cars in a year than the other automakers make in a week.

If only there was a military reason to develop alternative energy. When the Russians were beating us in space we moved heaven and earth to get their first.

And much of the technology that got us into space is driving most of the technology we have today. It’s not like we hadn’t given the Germans the lead in technology before. It took a World War to give us the drive to outsmart them as well.

I doubt beating ISIS will require a new modern energy that was easy to deploy almost anywhere.

Actually now that I think about it. What if we dropped a few solar panels connected to a battery that could power a radio or two and maybe some type of modern convenience that we could broadcast the truth to every village or town where the electricity infrastructure has been bombed out?

 

 

Tesla 3, Should Detroit be scared?

It’s been a little over a month since the Tesla 3 was unveiled and I haven’t posted anything about it till today. Odd for a blog about electric vehicles. After all, Tesla is the EV by which all other EV’s are measured.

Well, for one thing the Tesla 3 is little more than a prototype, just like the Chevy Bolt. Neither car is in production or it’s final form. All we have seen of both is a body and and some basic interior shots. Neither of these cars floats my boat, yet.

But what I find interesting about both these cars is, that while neither is in production both are setting standards for what an EV has to be to appeal to a mass market. Or at least what people think they need to be able to appeal to a mass market.

Let’s look at the supposed needs to make this car appeal to more than just a few early adopters who run out and buy the latest product Apple has to offer.

A car with a range of 200 miles. Why 200 miles. Because that’s about the average range of a gas powered vehicle. The reality though is people don’t drive 200 miles a day. They drive 200 miles between fill ups. That could be 6 hours or 6 days. For most people that’s once or twice a week. Not daily.

Right now most EV’s have a range of 70 miles. 95% of the time that’s really enough. Most people with EV’s plug in every night. Ask your average EV’r and they will tell you they love never having to stop for gas and that the 70 miles they get is more than they need most of the time. While they have a second vehicle in the family the EV gets driven the most and the second car rarely gets used. The person who drives the least drives the ICE car. Maybe once a month it goes for that drive to the long weekend vacation. Maybe.

Currently there are several EV’s like the Ford Focus, Kia Soul and VW eGolf that can do this no problem and for less than $35k. And that brings us to the next holy grail number.

Priced less than $35k. Really, that’s the number that it takes to get people to run out in masse and buy an EV? I think not. That might kill sales of the BMW 3 Series or other German Cars in it’s class but it’s not going to kill sales of the average family sedan.

The average midsize sedan sells more cars in 2 months than BMW sells 3’s in a year. And they sell on average for a lot less than $35k. The top end is $35k. Not everyone buys the most expensive trim level. Most don’t.

The Tesla 3 and the Bolt and all the rest of the EV’s out there with the only exceptions being the Tesla S and X are all compact cars. Tesla 3 will most likely have an edge here as the 3 is on a compact frame but since it was built from the ground up as an EV it will make far better use of the space available.

And now lets talk about the real elephant in the room. Tesla can’t use sales of their big SUV’s and Pick Up Trucks to subsidize the sales of the 3. They will be selling a lot of CAFE credits to the other automakers but they can’t charge $80k for an Escalade and sell a Volt for $10k less than it costs to build. And since we know that very few 3’s are going to roll of the assembly line with zero options just like very few BMW’s roll of the assembly line with zero options just like a BMW 3 the average price of a Tesla 3 will likely top $50k.

Who want’s to drive a compact car cross country? Not me. I really don’t think that many people drive their Tesla’s across the country now. A few just to prove they could and get their video on youtube but really? The Tesla 3 and the rest of the EV’s out there are only going more than 100 miles in day when the person moves from one city to another. Or like my Ford Focus that needed to get from L.A. to Phoenix because it was cheaper and readily available in California.

There is another problem that all automakers are going to have with their EV’s. I don’t care if it’s Tesla, Honda, Nissan or Apple. Not everyone like the way a car looks. To me the Leaf isn’t cute or futuristic, it’s plain ugly. I like the Mazda 6 but I don’t like the way the Mazda 3 looks. Or should I say the Tesla 3 since the same guy designed the Mazda and the Tesla.

I do like the way the Ford Focus and the VW eGolf look. I’ll wait till they have t drop their price to sell their compliance cars that starting next year will get about 110 miles of range. More than enough for 99.9% of what I need.

Will they have autopilot? Probably not. If I want all the killer new tech I might just have to wait and see if Chevy really produces the Bolt in a configuration they have said they will launch with Lyft, the other car service. Maybe the Bolt will save Lyft, or the Lyft will produce a bigger market for the Bolt. I’m not sure how that will work or who it will help.

What I do know for sure is that EV’s are here to stay this time around. Tesla has forced Detroit to take them seriously this time around. People want cars that run on electricity and they want cars that can pretty much drive themselves while we text and read email or Facebook.

While Tesla has close to 400k people on an interest list that have ponied up $1k a piece for the privilege of standing in line hoping to get one they have lit a fire under GM and probably BMW and Mercedes to get their own versions out ASAP.

I have not put $1k on the line to hold my place. I’m counting on one of the other companies to get out there and compete against Tesla that has a dealer network and service centers near my house to get the job done first.

I’m actually betting Audi or VW might beat them to the punch.

I’m not counting Tesla out though. Tesla is going to sell a lot of cars. They are going to be the Apple of the auto industry. They are going to produce a specialty product that lots of people want and can be special for quite a while. They are going to disrupt the usual way of doing business selling cars over the next 20 years. Apple might even catch up to them or buy them one day.

But right now my purchase dollars are not with Tesla. But it took me till 2006 to dump my Windows computers. Now I’m all Apple. Maybe by 2026 I’ll be all in on Tesla. Just not today.

 

Chevy Bolt. Tesla Killer?

The Chevrolet 2017 Bolt EV

2017 Chevrolet Bolt

From what I’ve seen of the 2017 Chevrolet Bolt it is an impressive car.

A price tag of less than $30k  after tax breaks, 200 plus miles of range. Fold flat seats, lot’s of safety features and a rear view mirror that doubles as a rear view monitor. What’s not to like?

 

But will it kill the elusive not yet produced Tesla 3 as many predict? I doubt it. Contrary to popular belief, range isn’t everything.

What Tesla has that Chevrolet, and every other EV manufacturer doesn’t, are the following:

  • Supercharger Network.
  • Direct Sales
  • Their only cars are EV’s

Why is that important?

You can have a 200 mile range but if you don’t have anyplace to charge the car at a reasonable cost, and in a reasonable amount of time, the only thing that 200 mile range does is let you get farther from home before you have to stop for the night to recharge.

Most franchise dealers either don’t want to or don’t know how to sell an all electric vehicle. If you don’t walk into a car dealer asking to drive or buy an EV they won’t even tell you they have one. Try walking into a dealer some day and tell them you’re looking for something that 99% of the time all you do is drive to work and back and usually less than 70 miles a day and see what they tell you to buy.

What it will do, make Tesla up their game on standard equipment. The Tesla 3 won’t be able to sell less car than Chevrolet. But neither will any other EV manufacturer.

But, that brings me to another question. How many and in what States will Chevrolet actually make the car available? Do they really want to sell this car? Is it just another compliance car?

While California residents will probably buy the majority of Bolts, it will put Nissan on notice. The Nissan Leaf is getting old. Even with the new 110 mile battery it’s still like a 4 year old iPhone for the price of a new one.

The Ford Focus EV is still the best buy in my book and with an improved range of 100 plus miles and DC Charging will make it as useful as the Bolt and if it keeps it’s $30k price tag with all the standard equipment it has now it’s a far better deal than any other EV out there.

My favorite pricy EV’s are still the VW Golf SEL, Kia Soul EV and Mercedes B Class. They are going to have to make the interior of the Bolt really nice to compete in that market. Even VW had to unload a bunch of SL Models for $99 a month for 3 years last December. Stripped down models don’t sell well anymore.  The Leaf S is like buying a flip phone at a smartphone price.

I see some real deals in the near future on other EV’s when the Bolt comes out. If like most people, 80 miles of range works for you, like it does for me.  A similar featured compliance car like the Focus at $20k after Tax Rebate will be the better deal.

The biggest problem GM will have is that EV buyers usually know what they need and know how to do the math. And how many EV buyers “want” a Chevrolet? Lot’s of them want a Tesla. I know I do. They just haven’t made one that makes economic sense for the average person.

What it might do is help them sell more Volts. A car that is similarly priced, has suitable EV range for 99% of the time and can drive cross country once every few years to visit grandma.

 

The 2016 V.W. e-Golf, my opinion.

This weekend my wife wanted to go to Los Angeles for the weekend. While we did the Star Tour and some of the tourist type things, one of the reasons for me to go was to drive a couple of EV’s.

Living in Arizona and not a C.A.R.B. State I can’t just go down to the local dealer and test drive any EV. Even the EV’s like the Focus and Benz really don’t ship many cars to non CARB States.

So here is my take on the e-Golf. It’s a really nice car. It drives like a Golf. Nice tight handling, nice ride and quite. It has a very tight turning radius. There is no torque steer like the Focus or Rav4 EV.

You can find the main differences on the V.W. website but here are the main ones.

SE. Cloth seats, no nav and slow charging (3.6kW) even on level 2 and no DC charging.

None of these things would stop me from buying the $7k cheaper vehicle if the only places I needed to charge was work or home. If you don’t need to add range quickly and the 70-80 miles of range is all you need then go of it.

With one exception, and for me it’s a big exception. It doesn’t have cruise control.  If you want to get the best range out of car then a cruise control is the best way to get it.

A few other things it missing besides the luxury upgrades. There are no steering wheel controls at all. No phone or radio controls at all.

I does interface with Apple Car Play and Google ver nicely. So there really is no need for the onboard navigation or any of the other proprietary radio garbage of most automakers.

If my choice was a Nissan Leaf S or the e-Golf SE I think I would choose the e-Golf. If I could buy a Leaf SV or SL vs the e-Golf SEL, I would buy the e-Golf SEL.

I still think the Ford Focus EV is still the best value out there for what you get but it does have its drawbacks.

If you are in the market for an EV and live in a State or near a State where the e-Golf is sold it’s definitely worth checking one out. I think you will like it.

It has plenty of room for a 6 footer in the front seats. A couple of kids in the back or an adult or two for a short ride to get lunch.

If you also want a peppy little car to zip around in that fits in some tight spaces and can cram a bunch of cargo in the back with the seats down this car might be for you.

Why a Tesla Should be your next car?

I was asked why I think a Tesla would be the EV to buy?

As many of you who have read my blog know I have a Ford Focus EV. I bought the Ford because it was the best overall EV for the price.

Yet it has it’s drawbacks. There isn’t a single Ford with a battery in it that was designed to have a battery in it. If you want either the Focus Electric or one of their PHEV’s, the battery takes up cargo space. In the Focus it takes up a lot of cargo space.

 

Ford Focus EV Cargo

 

 

The car also has a much wider turning radius than the ICE model Focus. You can’t make a u-turn on a normal two lane city street. You have to make a 3 point turn. Other than that it’s pretty much identical to the gas powered Focus with the SEL Trim Package. It has a real world range of about 75 miles.

Then you have the Mercedes B-Class EV. It’s a really nice looking car. Lots of room behind the back seats and the back seats fold down flat to create even more cargo space if needed. There is no battery in the way.

Mercedes B-Class EV Cargo Bay with Seats Flat.

 

This is a really a nice luxury EV that is not far off that $35k mark after the tax breaks. It has a pretty good real world range of about 85 miles. They actually designed the B-Class with using a battery for an energy source to begin with. Like the Tesla, the batteries lay flat under the cabin.

But then they go and screw things up by taking what is a really nice radar cruise control system and change the function of it. A radar cruise control should  keep your distance from the car in front of you and com to a complete stop if the car in front of you does. Instead if you start closing on the car in front to fast it applies the regenerative brakes so you don’t waste opportunity to recharge the battery by slowing down to quickly. That sounds like a great idea, right? Where they go wrong is now it won’t stop the car anymore if you are going to hit the car in front of you. I don’t know about you but I would much rather have a safer car than get that extra 2 or 3 miles from the regenerative brake system during a full charge.

There are also a few more compromises because while they did design this car with the batteries out of the way, they also designed it so they could use any of their powertrains. In Europe it is sold with both gas and diesel engines and they might also develop a fuel cell version.

The V.W. eGolf suffers from the same issues. While it accommodates the batteries without intrusion it doesn’t really have all the computer software and indicators that you want to see in a pure electric car.

This is where the Kia Soul EV actually has done a lot better job. But, yes their is a but. They take out the power seats. The top trim level has manual seats and very few of the new safety features available on most car today.

What all the companies out there have in common is that they compromise they EV’s to allow for different powertrains be they hybrid, Gas or Diesel. They are not betting the farm so to speak or going all in on Electric. Tesla is.

There is one automaker that has bet a lot on the EV, Nissan. Yet they have also made compromises. Unlike Tesla they decided that they would try to design an affordable EV from day one. It was really anything but affordable in the beginning and didn’t really get much traction until they offered the car at a sub $200 a month lease rate. Something that is starting to hurt them now as many people reach the end of their leases.

Nissan also suffers from the car being pretty ugly, fairly modest if not downright utilitarian as well as having bumps in the cargo bay.

Just like when the Prius started out you really had to want to be an early adopter.  I do find it interesting that now that the Prius has been on the market now for 15 years and within the last 3-5 years all of a sudden all the other car makers are coming out with some version of a hybrid car. And a handful after the slight and I say slight success of the Chevy Volt are now experimenting with Plugin In Hybrid cars. Most of the EV’s out there today are still nothing but compliance cars. Cars that allow them to keep making Internal Combustion Engine (I.C.E.) cars.

On the other hand you have Tesla. They first proved the concept with the Tesla Roadster. They proved a car could go 200 miles on a single charge and be fun to drive.

Their next car was the Tesla S. A car that was designed from a clean sheet of paper. No hedging their bets by having an ICE version. While it’s not a car for the mass market it is arguably one of the most successful cars in it’s price range. It’s also a car that is in the top safety, speed and has the most satisfied buyers of any car out there.

After the S we now have the X, the next car in the evolution. Also a very expensive car. Yet it does more than any other car in it’s class. I’m not sure there is any other car in it’s class.

But here are the reasons I really think Tesla is going to be the first to the really affordable car that everybody will want to buy.

They are now hard at work building the Tesla 3. A car that may have a 200 mile range. Seat 4-5. Actually carry some cargo much like the Mercedes B-Class or VW eGolf.

It will hands down have the least compromises with the greatest utility and look good doing it.

They will also have access to the Tesla Supercharger network. This is no small amenity. Even if GM or BMW builds a 200 mile car those batteries aren’t going to charge overnight in the average persons garage. Today an average pure EV battery is in the 24kWh range. With a 220 charger that takes about 5-8 hours. With a 110 it takes 15-20 hours.

Now double or triple the size of the battery and you need to double or triple the time it takes to charge. The only company that has the infrastructure in place to take advantage of a battery that size is Tesla. The only company that will allow you to take that car cross country is Tesla.

And while the eGolf or the B-Class Mercedes have enough range and luxury for most people and will also sell in that 35k price range they probably won’t be as desirable.

Many of you may have noticed I haven’t mentioned the BMW i3 yet. BMW did design the i3 from the ground up with the EV powertrain from day one. Yet they still have hedged their bet by offering a gas engine to extend the range. It’s either a work of art or really ugly. It’s really small and is really a two door car. And like every other BMW there is a big jump in price from the base model to the one that has all they toys you really want. For about the same price I would rather own the Mercedes B Class.

I don’t want a car that screams look at me. If I did I’d buy a Mustang or Corvette.

I don’t want a hybrid. They no longer get you in the HOV lane and are more utilitarian to drive than fun. Yeah, they get 40-50 MPG but the Mazda 6 gets 40 MPG on the highway and doesn’t suffer from being boring. Actually if you drive a lot on the highway hybrids might do worse than a Mazda 6. I know my Prius V does worse on highway trips. And around the city that extra 12 mpg isn’t really worth $10k more for the car.

I don’t want a plug in hybrid because the whole reason for an electric car is to eliminate waste and pollution. I don’t want a muffler, pistons and a fuel tank. I like never having to go to a gas station unless I have to stop and pee or need a 64 ounce drink.

And I really don’t want a Chevy Bolt. Smart Car or iMev. These cars are jokes. They aren’t even cute. To me they scream Bill Nye the science guy or Ed Begley Jr. They might be nice guys and I applaud their efforts to reduce pollution but, these are not two guys who inspire confidence or success.

There are a couple other things that make me think Tesla might just have what it takes to compete long term.

The evolution of Tesla is very much like the evolution of the Cell Phone. The supercharger network is very much like the evolution of the cell phone network by design. And the Tesla philosophy is very much like that of Apple and the iPhone.

I think every other car maker is going to be like all the other manufacturers who make Android Phones. Except they won’t have a cohesive infrastructure to support them. If they are going to rely on others to set up their charging networks they will fail. The average EV user, rarely if ever, charges anywhere but home or work and mostly at home.

That’s because the average driver rarely ever drives more than 50 miles a day. Only once in a while do they ever take that road trip everybody talks about that you need a 200-300 mile range.

And most smart people either fly or rent a car when going really long distances. If you breakdown in a rental you call the company and get a new car.

Rental companies make their money on people who rent cars locally. The people they know are only going to drive less than 50 miles in a day. You know, like the person who should really be driving an electric car. The person like you or me.

 

 

 

 

 

 

What a difference 3 years can make.

One of the great things about the web is it’s really easy to find media reports from years gone by. That is unless it was you doing something in the past you want to forget about or worse want to deny so you can get elected to public office.

In this case I’m talking about a couple of episodes of AutolineNetwork (Click here to watch it) on youtube. This one from 2012 is trying to explain why the Chevy Volt is such a big disappointment. One guy is from the Wall Street Journal, another from a Conservative Think Tank and another who was an engineer on the EV-1 project now turned auto journalist.

Two of the guys are totally dissing the Volt. The other two have driven it and say how much they love it. Their only real issue they have with it is the price.

The WSJ guy and the Think Tank Guy have nothing good to say because all they see are political reasons to not like it. They don’t believe that the government has any business giving rebates and subsidies to help it along. They don’t believe it would exist without CAFE rules or CARB regulations. And while I might agree with the latter the former is reasons are just plain selective amnesia.

How many things do we have today because the Government took an interest in something. The internet didn’t just pop up in the mind of Bill Gates or Steve Jobs. The Interstate Highway System wasn’t the brain child of Ford or GM. The Cellular Network and even the TV Broadcasting Networks were only built because the Government gave certain Companies assurances of exclusive license to build those networks.

We have seat belts and more crashworthy cars because of Government intervention or that hated word regulation. Something that all of the guest somehow like. Maybe it’s not popular anymore to say your against saving lives. Yet they still rail against CAFE standards and CARB rules. It’s not popular to tell people they should drive cars that get good gas milage. Why?

There is another episode with Csaba Csere, the former Editor-in-Chief of Car & Driver magazine and Jim Hall of 2953 Analytics. In this episode they once again talk about how great the Volt is and the Tesla. When you boil it down their only objection is price. Yet by listening to them you would think GM and Tesla had adopted a Marxist Ideology doomed to fail only to fall to the one true economy. The really high horsepower ICE engine that gets 20MPG instead of 12MPG.

Now fast forward to just a couple of months ago. On this episode they have on one of the main engineers of the Gen 2 Chevy Volt. They don’t have a single bad thing to say about the car. You would think GM hit a home run. It has yet to sell but now the car guys are coming around. I have no doubts if they invite back the WSJ guy his only dislike will be the $7500 tax credit.

I have said it once before. The EV is going to follow the path of the cellphone. And oddly enough the company that invented the EV-1 only to scrap it back when we as a Country also scrapped solar panels (bad move) will be the company that actually made the car that starts mass adoption of Electric powered vehicles. Not Nissan or Tesla. Especially not Ford.

While Nissan has sold the most EV’s of any car maker it is still a niche player. You really have to accept some major limitations to drive a Leaf. Think Apple Watch Sport.

Tesla proved that if you spend enough money and make something nice enough you can find enough buyers to spark interest. Think Apple Watch Edition.

The Gen 2 Volt on the other hand can get 50 miles on a charge. That covers 90% of most suburban Americans. The car gan go 400 miles on a tank of regular gas. That cover the other 10%. The only obstacle is the car is a Chevy. One body style. One company with a past of making bad decisions. The Volt is not one of them.

Ford may get caught sleeping on this one. While they have several Hybrids and a couple of plugins they don’t really seem to be taking the market that seriously.

Even if you don’t buy an EV or a Range Extended Hybrid like the Volt there is something you can do to reduce our dependence on oil.

It’s something else that has been around since the 1970’s but the auto press and automakers  has taken this long to finally accept the reality and benefits. Synthetic Motor Oil. Go back over the years and you will find hundreds or articles on why synthetic oil was a waste or even detrimental to your cars health. Today with automakers having to get better gas milage and people owning cars longer and expecting more reliability from their cars those same automakers are putting synthetics in their higher priced cars at the factory.

They have finally been dragged into accepting reality. When you use synthetic motor oil your car gets better fuel economy, runs cooler, last longer and is actually cheaper since you can run it for up to a year in most cars.

Amsoil Signature Series Motor oil can be run for 25,000 miles or one year in many cars. To learn more about extended drain intervals and Amsoil click here.

Speak not of what you know not.

Originally posted by a naysayer when debating the merits of a new Corvette to a new Tesla S.

“It’s great until you run out of charge on your way to grandma’s house carrying five people and lots of stuff.

Teslas are great second cars to run about town. But then again I reckon the Corvette would be a second car too.”

A reply from a verified Tesla owner.

 

Speak not of what you know not.

I have a plain vanilla Model S 85 kWh hour battery version, that I got in December 2014. It’s my only car; the daily driver. It has 95% of the cargo space of my wife’s Highlander SUV. It does 0-60 in about 5.0 seconds, the Tesla that is.

This is THE BEST car I’ve ever owned, and that includes a BMW 535, and a Saab 900T, both of which were very fun to drive.

I drive the Tesla (license plate [redacted]) regularly between Tucson and Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport (110 miles one way), Tucson and our place in Flagstaff (240 miles one way, Flagstaff and Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport (153 miles one way). Range and charging is never an issue, with the ability to charge easily at home, and then use Tesla Superchargers at either Casa Grande or Cordes Junction.

For example, the drive from Tucson to Flagstaff is 240 miles, but the real issue is the net 6000 elevation gain from the Phoenix area to Flagstaff. A Model S cannot make it non-stop in that direction even driving as economically possible. But I leave Tucson with 265 miles of rated range, and then drive the 160 miles at 80 MPH (that’s faster than max range speed) to the Supercharger at Cordes Junction. I get to Cordes with about 50 rated miles left. I do a 20 minute pee-break and sandwich stop. In that 20 minutes the Supercharger adds 120 miles of rated range to bring the rated range up to 175. The distance to Flagstaff is 85, and that much range lets me go up the big hill coming out of the Verde Valley at 80, and get to the Flagstaff place with 35 or so miles left.

Coming back from Flag to Tucson, I can make it non-stop at 65 MPH, but I usually drive 80, and then stop for a 10-15 pee break at the Casa Grande Supercharger. 10-15 minutes of fast charge adds enough range to let me drive the remaining 65 miles at 80 and get home with plenty of margin.

I’ve been to San Diego and Los Angeles, and with the Supercharger network (that’s -no cost- fast charging) the drive is a no-brainer.

Now, if you’re the kind of person who has to drive 4 hours at a stretch, 10 minute pee break then another 4 hours of driving, the Model S is not for you. But I’ve gotten to the point where I don’t mind a 20 minute stop every 200-220 miles or so.

This is a totally practical car for most people with average driving needs.

Volt headed for the dustbin of automotive history?

“The Chevrolet Volt, meanwhile, seems headed to the dustbin of automotive history, like GM’s original EV-1 and the entire Saturn division.” At least that’s what Alex Taylor, III of Fortune Magazine says. To read the entire article Click Here.

Actually I think he has that part all wrong. While the volt is heavy and slow and pretty much everything else he says about the car, it’s not going away anytime soon as long as GM doesn’t get cold feet.

Yes they stopped making the old Volt and have reduced prices to sell what they have left. That’s what technology companies do. And the Volt is technology as much as it is car.

But where the next Volt will succeed, it will not be in beating out the Tesla, because sorry folks, it’s no Tesla. What it is, a Prius Killer. That’s right, you heard it here first. Why spend $30k for a Prius Plug In that can go a whopping (sarcasm) 11 miles on the battery before you need to plug back in. And then it gets the same gas milage as a regular Prius, about 50 MPG.

The 2015 Volt gets 38 all electric miles while the 2016 is projected to get 50 miles on a single charge. That’s enough so most people will rarely if ever put gas in it. I should know. I currently drive a Ford Focus EV and rarely do I drive more than 50 miles in a day and I hardly ever drive more than the average 80 mile range.

Sorry but Toyota better watch out. And Tesla, they aren’t even in the sub $50k market, at least not yet.

This is a place where thanks to Tesla American Car Manufactures have the potential to really shine.

Toyota is betting that Hydrogen is the next big thing. Wrong. That’s why the Prius doesn’t get better, only bigger (Prius V) and Smaller (Prius C). They gave up on the Rav 4 EV. A car loved by almost everybody that has one. I know 3 people that have them. Sadly that’s actually a lot of people to know with an electric car. Two of them cut their EV teeth with a Nissan Leaf and one still has his.

The Prius is pretty much everything Alex Taylor, III says about the Volt. Heavy, drives like a washing machine. My mother has a Prius. I like riding in the back seat a lot more than I like driving it. Maybe that’s why cabbies or at least their passengers like them. (Edit) And as one person who read my post stated. The Volt is very responsive from 0-30 MPH. Actually most EV’s are. It’s fun to beat most cars from 0 to the posted speed limit of 45 or less. Be careful though.  You would be surprised how many kids in a Camaro or Mustang don’t like that.

By the way, I said the Prius was slow and heavy, Alex Taylor, III said the Volt was slow and heavy.

Tesla will continue to build the “BMW” of electric cars, at least as long as BMW keeps building half ass EV’s like the i8 and i3. Cool but not Tesla cool. Both way to expensive for mere mortals.

The Ford Focus EV is the only real EV Ford makes and it’s just a compliance car. Try to buy one out of a Compliance State and you will come up empty. The rest of the Fords are just Hybrids and Plug Ins and no better than Toyota. They need to redesign the Focus so the batteries don’t take up all the cargo space. Maybe they should ask Tesla for some help. The battery pack, the rear view mirror (needs HomeLink) and no moonroof are my only complaints. And that’s only because when my son farts in the car I have to roll down the windows to get fresh air.

Sorry Alex, The Volt is a great car technologically and is getting better in the next model. Greater range, both gas and electric. 5 seats instead of 4 and some more advanced driving safety options as well.

And, I almost forgot the best part. The price. It’s going to have a sub 30k price tag after the tax credit. That puts it smack dab in Prius territory. If you have ever talked to a Volt owner they rarely ever use the gas engine.

Right now I own one American Car. The Focus EV. While it’s heavy it’s actually fun to drive.  If the Volt handles as well and is as nice inside as my 2015 Mazda 6 I will without a doubt consider putting the Mazda to the curb and I love the car. It is everything Car and Driver says it is. Actually it would be really nice if it could have a Tesla conversion. Elon? The Volt may just do it. Make me want to sell my Mazda.

Then the only car to get rid of is the Honda Pilot my wife drives. The 18MPG wonder. With gas prices headed back up and global warming becoming more of a reality every day Honda better hope Elon doesn’t figure out how to make a sub $50k SUV.

Americans may have finally figured it out. Nissan may be the Japanese’s best and only hope. They have sold the most EV’s of anyone. And they are actually really good as well. They are just to expensive still.

The Volt is here to stay. If not we will be stuck with Pri-i. Is that what you call more than one Prius?

Remember when the German’s bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

I hate CNBC

Ok, it’s not just CNBC but pretty much all so called news outlets They don’t report news as much as sell you something.

I was on Yahoo.com doing some financial research on Tesla. While I’m looking at the research there is a video from CNBC with some talking heads and a so called expert from Garage Monkey  or some crazy name telling people that we will never give up our loud sounding big horsepower muscle cars. Or at least he won’t. We love the sound and the smell. Just look at how many classics are still around.

Well, yeah, there are lots of classics still around. In garages and museums. Unless you count the thousands that are rusted out and decaying in the barns and backyards of America. About the only place people still drive Classics everyday, Cuba. And I doubt that’s because they want to.

I remember the days of my youth riding in my fathers ’67 (maybe ’68) Dodge Charger. I remember what a cool car it was at the time. It was also a real piece of crap. It always had trouble starting and it didn’t have air conditioning . The sad part is I was to young to drive it. Had I drove it I surely would have never look at a classic ever.

In the late 70’s and early 80’s I got to drive classics like the Chevette, Chrysler K car, and Nova. There are more as I drove a lot of real junk back then. They sure didn’t make them any better. I can’t or don’t want to remember all those really bad cars of the day.

But like many folks in their late 40’s and feeling flush with cash after the market boom of the early 2000’s I went out and bought not just one but 2 classic cars. A 1967 Chevy Chevelle SS. Wow, what a cool car. Well not really. It would make a lot of noise and sounded really neat but it really drove like crap. It’s amazing people drove those things more than 10 miles a day even when they were new.

But being a glutton for punishment I bought a more luxurious classic car. A 1964 Chevy Impala. Also the SS version. This was a boat. I should have driven it before I bought but I got it sight unseen off eBay.

What these cars did most of the time was sit in my warehouse. I had to move them every time I got a delivery. After the market crashed in 2008 I decided they were just to much trouble to keep moving. They were so crappy that I never wanted to drive them. They were pretty to look at though. If I want to do that there are plenty of people who have them in garages all around me. My best friend has a 1964 Corvette sitting in his garage. He’s not a big fan of driving it either. He’s afraid that if he leaves it parked to get something to eat that someone might steal it or crash into it. It’s around 64k of wasted potential. While it keeps going up every year if he had taken the 22k he paid for it ten years ago and bought almost any decent stock it would be worth twice what it is now. And instead of parking his Kia Soul in the driveway he could fit it in the garage. That’s right, he’s driving a Kia Soul. At least when he doesn’t need his big Dodge Diesel for moving motorcycles everyday. He buys and sells them.

So as long as we are giving opinions, here are some of mine.

Just like people hated answering machines when they first came out or cellphones (the people who didn’t have one yet). The technology and price of the electric car gets more attractive every few years. It might take 10-20 years to get to the point where that’s what people want or can afford but there is no question that the technology is here and if automakers actually build them and sell them in every market people will buy them. As more people get them, more people will want what everybody else has. Just like the Navy Converted from Coal and Wood to Oil back in the day.

Used cars will hit the market as well. Just like some people wait for last years iPhone before they buy it there will be people buying 5-8 year old electric cars and loving them.

No buying gas. No oil changes. No filters to change. The scheduled maintenance is pretty much rotate the tires every 10,000 miles.

I have about 2000 miles on my Ford Focus Electric and there has only been one day where I was afraid to take it on the trip I had planned. If I had known I was going to be where I was for as long as I was it wouldn’t have been a problem. They had a charger there and in 2 hours I would have been good to go. I was there all night.

While todays ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) cars are really pretty good, O.K. really good they still burn gas. A product that we fight wars for. A product that we have no control over the pricing or production since most of it is imported. We use almost 80-90% more than we produce. And while people still debate if fossil fuels cause global warming there is no debate that they cause pollution. Oil spills cause catastrophic losses to wildlife and livelihoods.

Do we want to go back to the days where air pollution was so thick in many cities you couldn’t see more than a couple miles. Do we want Los Angeles or Chicago to look like Mexico City or Shanghai. Should we go back to the days where Lake Erie is dead and the rivers of Ohio burn when you light a match?

The price of gas in Phoenix is over $2.70 a gallon again. Up more than a dollar a gallon in less than 4 months. The cost of my electricity is down. At least between midnight and 5 AM. The electric company wants me to charge my car at night. They need people to use all that excess capacity that’s available at night when people are sleeping and the temps are cooler so the AC doesn’t run as much.

Another thing is there are no refineries in Phoenix using a ton of electricity to turn all that crude oil into gas. Yeah, it takes a lot of electricity to make a gallon of gas. Then it takes a lot of diesel to truck it to the gas station. Then it takes more electricity to pump it into your car.

Almost everybody in the U.S. now days has electricity already coming to their house. It doesn’t take any more modification to get it to your car than it does to hook up an RV.

The only reason I go to a gas station now is to buy a snack and use the washroom.

Boy was I wrong says the USA Today

The other day I posted about how Americans wont be fooled again, buying gas guzzling SUV’s because fuel prices are at a relative historic low, as are wages.

But instead of being proven right I read an article just days later that we are not buying hybrids or high gas milage vehicles but once again the sales of SUV’s are on the rise in the  April 22 USA Today “Earth Day or not, hybrids take a hit”.

The article states that many electric or hybrid owners are less likely to trade their current vehicles in for another hybrid but would get an SUV instead.

The article goes on to say that “For better or worse, it looks like many hybrid and EV owners are driven more by financial motives rather than a responsibility to the environment,” says edmunds.com Director of Industry Analysis.

Although the impact on the environment does have a cost though we choose not to quantify it. It’s an unaccounted for externality that makes the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicles look cheaper than they actually are.

I question who the sample size or who these vehicle owners are.  Just a look around the streets and highways of Phoenix, Arizona (where I live) you will see lots of hybrids. And many of those are older cars from the first generation Prius as well.

From the looks of things, hybrid owners don’t replace their cars that often. In the last year, as well, I have seen many new model (2014+) hybrids on the road. My mother just bought one, a 2015 Prius V. So in my opinion, any car company that forgoes hybrids and BEV’s or PHEV’s and builds lots of SUV’s is doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past that allowed Japanese car makers to take much of the US market share that they retain to this day.

As long as car makers let fuel prices decide what they build instead of sound long term strategies the shortsighted idea of current fuel prices staying low forever will lead car makers off the cliff of bankruptcy over and over.

Efficient cars should lead fuel prices lower instead of low fuel prices leading to cars that consume more fuel which has historically lead to higher fuel prices.

Innovation leads to success. Henry Ford was an auto industry innovator. Maybe the last one. Why? Because many of the innovations of the auto industry in the last 50 years were forced on them by regulation. Seat Belts, MPG requirements just to name a couple biggies. For the most part the auto industry is like your grand parents. Dragged into the next century kicking and screaming if they don’t die first.

The article also states that GM has temporarily halted production of the Volt. Well, considering they announced that next year they will have the Volt 2.0 that’s going to be significantly better, who’s going to pay full price for last years technology. They might as well keep dropping the price till the last buyer wants it so cheap it makes more sense to donate them to a charity for the tax break.

People who can pay full price for an iPhone don’t go running out once the timeframe for the new iPhone is near. Which is why Steve Jobs kept the next big thing a big secret till it was ready for sale.

And while car dealers give rebates and incentives on last years model all the time cars like the Volt will be much more sensitive to new model announcements. Many of the people buying these cars want the latest and greatest tech. This will also become more common on all cars as things like blind spot monitoring, adaptive cruise control and a host of many other technologies become more prevalent in cars of all trim levels.

The USA Today article also talks about dismal sales of Plug in Toyota hybrids being down 61%. That might have something to do with the fact that it’s hard to find one on a dealers lot if you don’t live in a CARB State.

Toyota only sold their Rav4 EV in California. Yet I personally know 3 people who bought one and brought it back to Arizona. They love that SUV. Even though it’s sort of a bastardized RAV4.

Honda only sold their Fit EV in AZ for a very short time and then only leased them. And then discontinued making then shortly there after.

I’m not sure car dealers like EV’s much, especially BEV’s as they require so little maintenance. A large profit center for dealers.

When I was car shopping with my mother earlier this year their were no plug in Prius’s to be found in Arizona. How can someone buy one when dealers don’t have them to sell?

And when I went shopping for my Ford Focus Electric (FFE), you couldn’t find any of those in Arizona either. At least  The dealers sold them all 20 minutes after they hit the lot. I had to go to California to buy mine. And the economics made sense. And they still make sense as gas prices are actually 15% higher than the day I bought it. The price of gas would have to go to 70 cents a gallon to equal the price of electricity per mile. And since most of the electricity produced at night is from nuclear the amount of carbon per mile is much lower.

The tags in AZ for the equivalent Ford Focus are $500 for the first year. The cost of the tags for my Focus, $60 for 5 years. Access to the HOV lane. I would say you can’t put a price on that but you actually can. There are people who can no longer get a HOV access plate with a new hybrid car who are leasing plates from prior Prius owners for $1000 per year.

If people are buying SUV’s and trading in their hybrids it has nothing to do with the economics. It has more to do with the emotions.

Hybrids for the most part are pretty boring and very utilitarian. The Toyota Prius does make a great Taxicab though. It has a very large back seat with lots of legroom.

The fact that hybrids are so boring is why Tesla is so successful. Their cars, while quite expensive are actually fun to drive. They don’t handle like a box truck. They aren’t the bottom of the line trim levels. But the VW Golf E, The Kia Soul E and Ford Focus E are actually very nice cars as well and at the top trim levels can be had for less than 30k after the tax credit.

Had Ford not dropped the price of the FFE to 32k and the dealer not also dropped another 2k off the price I would have probably bought a Volkswagen Golf Electric. Another car maker who chose to go top of the line trim instead of bottom of the line trim. Just like the FFE. That’s what swayed me away from the Leaf. In order to have the price make sense the only Leaf would have been the S or bottom trim level.

One other thing car makers need to do, not just in their EV vehicles but all vehicles is stop selling expensive Nav packages with old useless tech. Almost everybody today has a smartphone. All they need to do is put the necessary interfaces for people to use their smartphones. At least Tesla chose to make their tech an improvement on current display tech vs using 3 or 4 year old tech in the average new car.

Like 15 or 20 years ago nobody new they wanted let alone needed a smartphone and that they would become as ubiquitous as watches were just 20-70 years ago. In 10-20 years the Electric Vehicle that primarily drives itself, will be the new iPhone. All it takes is some leadership and vision from an industry that has a dismal track record of predicting the future.

Elon Musk will be seen as the next Steve Jobs but just like Apple it took companies like Google, Samsung and LG to join in on the road to the future we now know. Maybe it’s time those companies take their huge stockpiles of cash and start building cars while the current car companies fade into the sunset and stop perpetuating the myth that bring hydrocarbons is good for the planet.

While GM got it’s bailout, like Chrysler before it, this will probably not be the last time we see a big automaker in need of a financial lifeline. It’s time they stopped being pretending to be experts. The last thing they need to do is build the next Hummer. If they can’t lead they need to follow or just get the hell out of the way.

This time if we support innovators with the bailout money instead we can transform our society into the future sooner rather than later.