Category Archives: Battery Electric Vehicles

Trump, Reagan, Alternative Energy.

Back in Junior High I was a bit of an Alex Keaton (Michael J. Fox) from Family Ties. I wrote a report on how to invest in stock and why Tyco Labs was the place to invest. They had this great technology called a photovoltaic cell. Solar Energy was an idea whose time had finally arrived.

We had just been held hostage by OPEC and people had to wait in lines to buy gas, at was then, record prices of over a dollar a gallon.

Jimmy Carter had put solar panels on the White House to set an example of how we could start on our way to energy independence.

Then Ronald Reagan got elected. There was no way that in his America we were going to conserve. We drive big cars, heat and cool our houses to whatever extreme we want. We are a big and powerful nation and can afford to waste as much as we want. And for the next 30 plus years that’s exactly what we did. Only communists suffer shortages.

Bush gave tax breaks to people who bought Hummers. And lots of people did. You still see a few of them around today. But they don’t make them anymore. They went by the wayside when many American Automakers went bankrupt.

American Automakers also gave up a lot of marketshare to Japanese automakers in the 80’s. Because like most commodities that don’t have competition the price of gas just kept going up. And that drove people to buy the smaller, better built more fuel efficient imports.

But for those who study history we can often find examples of history repeating itself.

So lets go back just a few years. After a major recession the US elected one of those un-American leaders. The kind that doesn’t believe in American Supremacy and actually promoted the notion that once again Americans should conserve energy, invest in alternative energy and have a lofty goal of getting 1 million electric cars on the road in just a few years.

But the first order of business was bailing out American Automakers. Something Reagan did with Chrysler back in the 1980’s now had to be done again 30 years later. Because we forgot that gas can get pretty expensive and building lots of big cars that get crappy gas milage hurts the economy when gas hit’s $3 a gallon. And when the only cars on your lot don’t sell anymore bankruptcy is a given.

Well, the economy recovered because we have cheap gas once again. Or at least we perceive it as cheap because once you hit $3 a gallon $2 looks really cheap. Almost as cheap as $1 where gas hit at the height of the recession. I’ll bet if gas hits $3 now people will still perceive it as being pretty cheap.

So now after 8 years of that commie socialist we have once again elected a President who acknowledges the Supremacy of the United States of America.

His first order of business is to incentivize 19th century technology. Make coal great again. His second order of business was to make sure we can burn lots of fossil fuel. Keep it cheap so people can burn lots of it. There can’t be an iceberg hiding below the surface using that strategy. No,literally. All the icebergs are melting. Deny that this strategy has environmental consequences at all costs. Science is suspect. What do scientists know anyway.

And worst of all spreading the myth that restrictions on environmental pollution makes us uncompetitive in the world.

Trump is Reagan revisited. And I don’t mean that in a positive way.

This time the world is no longer looking for Americans to lead the way. We are way behind the power curve on implementing alternative energy.

Unlike the United States or China most of Europe and the UK does not have vast areas of unpopulated land mass. Most of France, Italy, Germany and the U.K.  have lots of people in very small areas. Their pollution problems are like ours of California prior to Nixon and The EPA or those pesky California Emission Standards.

Other countries are actually investing in technology to get off of fossil fuels. German automakers that were first pushed by Tesla and further pushed by their own greed and cheating emission rules with their diesel cars are now going all out on developing Electric Vehicles. Add that to their growing supply of solar power and other countries are leading the way into the 21st Century. Not the U.S.A.

What are American Automakers doing? Building as many SUV’s and Pickup Trucks they can churn out. And that is pretty much a sign that although many Americans feel that the economy still sucks that it really doesn’t. Poor people don’t buy $70k Automobiles, or do they? Well poor people don’t, but having a $1k a month payment and another $150 or more a month going to Mobil or BP can sure as heck make you feel like your broke. Especially if you have 2 of these in your driveway. Let gas hit $3 or $4 a gallon again and it won’t take long before another recession hits.

Another fallacy is that regulations make products cost more. Well let’s go back to the 1980’s. Factories used to just dispose of certain waste from production, much of it in small particles like the sawdust from mills.

Well there was this company called Torrit Donaldson. You might know who they are. They make filters for your car among other things.

They would also design collection systems that collect sawdust among other things. Now instead of these particulates being dumped in the air and garbage they make particle board and other products from them.

Both the mill and the filter maker, make money. Long term results are better. That’s how jobs and new technologies get created. Not by doubling down on burning toxins. Too bad Wall Street doesn’t care beyond the next quarter

So is their a silver lining in this Trump cloud?

Well just like the 1980’s businesses will continue to look for ways to make more money and people will continue to ask for innovation.

Tesla proved that you can make a compelling Electric Car. Germany and the U.K. have proven that solar and wind are competitive with nuclear and coal when you factor in the external costs that we in the U.S. don’t account for.

The only real question is will politics get in the way of the U.S.A. becoming a leader or will be relegated to the position of follower?

Will American Car Makers once again, for the third time misjudge where the market is headed. Maybe that’s why Tesla has a higher market cap than Ford or G.M.

One that it really doesn’t deserve as Tesla makes less cars in a year than the other automakers make in a week.

If only there was a military reason to develop alternative energy. When the Russians were beating us in space we moved heaven and earth to get their first.

And much of the technology that got us into space is driving most of the technology we have today. It’s not like we hadn’t given the Germans the lead in technology before. It took a World War to give us the drive to outsmart them as well.

I doubt beating ISIS will require a new modern energy that was easy to deploy almost anywhere.

Actually now that I think about it. What if we dropped a few solar panels connected to a battery that could power a radio or two and maybe some type of modern convenience that we could broadcast the truth to every village or town where the electricity infrastructure has been bombed out?

 

 

2017 Audi A3 e-tron, I love it, maybe.

You can’t make a sound financial argument for buying this car. It’s a $48k car before tax incentives. And since EV’s, especially plugin hybrids are finally becoming popular dealers aren’t even offering much in the way of discounts anymore.

So far the only EV I have been able to make a financial argument for is the Ford Focus EV. It’s also hard to make an environmental argument for a hybrid. Maybe in Europe it would be easier but not in the U.S.

Gas is still pretty cheap and we don’t have an excessive problem with pollution in our city centers. You don’t have to pay a pollution tax here and you aren’t going to see an EV only zone anytime soon like you will in the EU in the near future.

Now some more reasons you might not want a hybrid, plugin or not.

You still have an Internal Combustion Engine with all its required maintenance. Oil changes, spark plugs, belts, hoses and fuel tanks, gauges and pumps. What a hassle. . Then you have the electric motor. The most efficient part of the system. Then you have a transmission and all the controllers that tie the two motors together, It’s amazing they are as reliable as they are. It’s like a twin engine airplane. Way more expensive than it has to be and when one engine system fails it won’t necessarily save you. At least in the case of the hybrid you get better gas mileage, not worse.

Let’s compare it to a turboprop  airplane. A jet engine that turns a propeller. More efficient than a jet for shorter trips at lower altitudes.  Hybrids are more efficient in the city than on the highway. If most of your driving is on the highway you should either drive a diesel (this was written before VW Dieselgate), a high mileage ICE car or a pure EV with a range you can live with.

So now that I’ve told you what I don’t like about this car and  hybrids in general why would I want to buy this car?  Lets start with I hate my Prius V. Driving it is about as much fun as doing laundry. Is that reason enough? No, maybe not.

Back to the A3 eTron. It’s cute, it’s fun to drive and most of the time you drive it you won’t be using any gas. That is if your daily commute is less than 20 miles a day or you can plug in at work. My drive to work. 20.2 miles. I can charge at work. Did I say I only drive to work 1 or 2 days a week. The rest of the week I’m driving about 15-20 miles a day running errands and driving my son to and from school.

So what’s holding me back. The $50k price tag for a hybrid. Why wouldn’t I just buy a Chevy Bolt? I haven’t driven a Bolt yet but $40k for a Top of the line Bolt that has little if any of the comforts of a German car. That’s what. Even a Basic VW Golf has more style.

And there is one other really big thing holding me back from buying any current EV. The Tesla 3. Just the threat of the Tesla 3 has many automakers promising pure BEV’s that will have 200 miles of range and come in around $35k.

Tesla Autopilot kills driver? No, it didn’t.

The big debate going on lately is should Tesla have told investors Tesla might be subject to a lawsuit from the death of a driver while driving a Tesla X using the “Autopilot” function.

If you read this reddit thread started by the author of the controversial Fortune article you would think that it does. But if you read down the author talks about how he owns a Prius V with adaptive cruise control (ADC). He loves it and would gladly buy a self driving car. Well, the Tesla is not a self driving car. I seriously doubt that Toyota is telling shareholders anytime a Prius with ADC has an accident. And having a Prius V with ADC my self,f if anyone actually believes that you can let the car always keep a safe distance, you learn very quickly, just like the folks driving Tesla’s you can’t.

First of all “autopilot” on Tesla cars is no more than a really great adaptive cruise control with lane keeping ability. They do a far far better job than my Prius does at not hitting cars ahead of you and can actually bring the car to a full stop unlike the Prius. But neither one will keep you safe. You still have to pay attention. If not, at best you’ll wreck a car or two. At worst you’ll kill someone.

Of the 20k plus miles I have put on the Prius, many using cruise control the car has accelerated towards stopped cars or failed to slow down before I thought it would be prudent to intervene many, many times. So many in fact that I only use it on the highway or city streets with light traffic.

Today I was in a situation where a driver decided he was in the wrong lane abruptly pulled out in front of me. He was slowed on the beginning of an exit ramp doing about 35 MPH. I was on the highway doing 65. He cut out in front of me causing me (not the car) to slam on the brakes nearly avoiding his back bumper.

He politely waved sorry to me with cellphone in hand. Maybe he had to go left instead of right to get Pokemon. All I could think is what an asshole and I was glad that the truck behind me was keeping a safe distance. Something that most people don’t do as the Prius will keep about 6 car lengths from the car ahead of you at highway speeds.

Now up until this point I have put autopilot in quotes. That sort of implies that autopilot as Tesla bills it is not really an autopilot. The problem here is most people don’t really understand what an autopilot is. I do. I use one every day I get in an Airbus 320 and fly across the country. My day job is as a pilot for a major airline. I am a Captain with Type Ratings in both Airbus and Boeing airplanes. Specifically the A320 and Boeing 737 families.

The Tesla is not a self driving car and airplanes do not fly themselves. Autopilots are used to reduce workloads. They do not allow you the luxury of not paying attention.

There are several levels of automation in an airplane just like in a car. In their simplest form they might just hold the airplanes heading and altitude. This is what’s known as a two axis autopilot. That’s what we had on the 737. The A320 has a three axis autopilot. That adds Yaw control. This function moves the rudder. Those are the basics.

Now lets add on the Flight Management and Guidance Computer (FMGC). This does much more. This is the system that allows you to program in a course and follow it. This interfaces with the autopilot. Think of it as adding GPS to lane keeping or steering.

We haven’t even gotten to the cruise control system or what’s known as auto throttle or auto thrust. . This function allows you the set a fixed (not distance from a plane in front of you) speed and keep it.

All these things combined are what most people think of as autopilot. Yet as a pilot we don’t really need any of these things to fly airplanes. They just make it a heck of a lot easier or safer.

But there are several things that all of these tools cant’t do. They won’t keep you from hitting a mountain, flying off the end of the runway, hitting another airplane in mid-flight or flying through a thunderstorm. All of those things require somethings that computers, at least today, can’t do, Make complex decisions that require human intervention.

There are warning system on airplanes that let the pilots know if they are about to hit a mountain or another airplane. There is weather radar. But none of these interact with the auto flight systems. So when you hear people say that modern airplanes pretty much fly themselves, they don’t. They still need pilots. At least two of them. If one dies or becomes incapacitated they aren’t going to drop in another pilot or a passenger isn’t going to land the plane. For that would require a lot more knowledge than you can learn in a couple of hours.

I’m not sure if you will see an airplane without pilots or a self driving car first but don’t make the mistake of thinking an “autopilot” will allow the operator to totally give up control of the vehicle.

You don’t want your pilot to be asleep at the wheel and you don’t want your driver to be asleep at the wheel either. That’s another reason there are two pilots on commercial airliners. It’s always ones job to FLY THE AIRPLANE. Autopilot on or not.

But I will tell you one thing. An airplane in flight is far more forgiving if the pilots are not paying attention than a driver on a road.

In cruise (at altitude) the closest airplane is going to be at least 5 miles away and 1000 feet above or below you. On the road you have cars within a few feet of each other going 70 MPH. In most big jets you have at least 2 pilots at the controls most of the time.

In an airplane I will get about 20-30 seconds to react if someone comes closer than they should. In a car you might have a few seconds if you’re lucky. Today if I hadn’t reacted immediately, I would have been in that guys back seat. I didn’t even hear the collision warning indicator go off. It felt like the car was never going to stop or slow down quick enough to not hit him. Braking distance in a Prius isn’t all that great.

Back to the Tesla accident. Maybe since the same guy who died had previously made a video of the car saving him he got far to comfortable with the technology. Maybe it works so well that people think it can do far more than it can.

Autopilot isn’t set it and forget it. And if you remember that you will be safer than any other driver on the road who doesn’t understand what autopilot can and can’t do.

Tesla’s stock might have taken a hit but their bottom line won’t. At least not because of this.

I’m all for more safety features in cars. I love backup cameras and sensors. I love blind spot warnings and many things available in the newest cars. I think all cars should have them. But none of these things should let the driver think they don’t have the responsibility to look.

Tesla may not have invented any of these things but they are making people aware of them and other manufactures have taken notice. Let’s not let this accident or any other accident hamper the advance of safety because some people are too complacent to use them properly.

These things will save lives. Look at how few planes crash now days.

 

The 2017 Chevy Volt. Useful or not?

2017 Chevy Volt

The following are my opinions. If you own a Volt feel free to comment on what you like about the Volt and why.

I should have really posted a review of my 2015 Prius V before I wrote this one because I am basing this review on my likes and dislikes of that car. But here goes anyway.

I went to the Chevy dealer with the intention of looking at the new 2017 Chevy Volt. I have read many reviews and watched a lot of YouTube video on why people love the Volt. The reason you might not find many people who don’t like it online is because the people are either owners of the car or people who can’t not like it because they have money and ego on the line, or, people who count on dealers and manufactures to give them access to the car and need more cars for future reviews.

When I got to the dealership I turned in the first entrance. It turned out that was the service entrance. Instead of driving around I parked there and walked around to where an open Volt was sitting. After just sitting in it I had no desire to drive it. Why?

I guess I will start out with what I like since that’s a pretty short list. It gets about 50 miles of electric driving on a full charge. More than most people will need in a day. I actually like the way it looks. It make a very small car look very big. OK, not very big but far bigger that it actually is inside. It does have some very cool tech in it. Neat gauges and many advanced safety features if you choose the high end model. That’s the good. Now the reasons I chose not to drive it.

It has interior dimensions that are very close to a Honda Fit or Toyota Prius C. Both of which can hold more cargo. The second row headroom is almost 2 inches less than the Honda and the second row legroom is 4.6 inches less than the Honda. Yet, the car is 20 inches longer that the Honda. So it has more cargo space, right? No, it has 6 CUft less. Fold the back seats down in both and that difference is, not even listed for the Volt.

I am 6 feet tall. Not to tall to fit in the drivers seat. But if I can’t uncomfortably fit in the back seat of a car behind myself. It has little use to me. I might as well be buying a two seat car.

When I scrunched myself into the backseat by contorting to get through the door and turning my feet (size 13 shoes) sideways and then turning them forward I made the mistake of rising my head. I hid the headliner. I didn’t immediately lean my head backward so it was where the window comes up over my head. To sit n the most comfortable position possible I have to lean my head back.

Now I would probably never have to ride in the backseat but my 12 year old son would. He’s already 5′ 8″ and has a size 11 foot.

Could you use one if you have a baby? Um, maybe not. My wife drives our granddaughter around a lot. She has this massive baby seat that barely fits in a midsize car let alone a car with a back seat as small as a Volt.

When you watch all the youtube reviews I have no idea how small these guys have to be to sit in the back seat.

I hope the Chevrolet Bolt is way better than the Volt. Maybe they stole the design from the Honda Fit for the Bolt. I sure hope so.

 

Cult of Tesla (Motors)

In my last post I asked if Detroit should be worried about Tesla and the Tesla 3. I said that it would mostly effect the Germans and the BMW 3 series in particular.

Since I wrote that I have personally met 2 people that have put their money down to reserve a spot for a Tesla 3.

Oddly they are very much like me. They are not luxury car buyers. They don’t spend big bucks on status. They are Toyota and Honda buyers. They drive cars till they fall apart.

What else they have in common is they make 6 figure incomes. They would strongly fit in the category of the millionaire next door. They don’t show wealth, they have it.

Another thing they have in common is they embrace technology. They are the customers that Apple loves.

These are the same people that bought the second generation iPhone and iPad. The one that had shown some usefulness although not as much as today.

Why is this important? Quite frankly, the car doesn’t have to be perfect. The biggest complaint about the iPhone is that as a phone it sucks. Reliability is actually not all that great. Mostly because the network carriers that place the calls but there are bug fixes and software updates all the time.

Well, just like we have learned to tolerate less than perfect reliability from our phones we will allow the same annoyances from our cars. That is if the car is “special”. And the Tesla if anything is special.

Just look at Consumer Reports. In their initial tests the car broke the 100 point barrier. Yet when looking at long term reliability they can no longer recommend the car. Seriously?

You can’t really expect Tesla to compete with a Honda Civic or Toyota Camry. They are basically reliable transportation, but not much fun to drive. They are not as dull as driving a Prius or Yaris but there is no joy in flooring the accelerator on an entry ramp and reaching 60 MPH in 8-10 seconds.

The Tesla can have a few bugs and even need a trip or two to the Tesla version of the Genius Bar every now and then and people will still love it. As Consumer Reports bares out with there less than stellar reliability rating after the initial wow of 100 plus.

As long as the car performs the cool things fairly well people will tolerate a few bugs.

Driving an EV that can do 0-30 faster than almost any ICE car is pretty cool but having an EV that can do 0-60 in six seconds will make that trip to work just that much more fun. Then when you get on the highway having the car do most of the driving for you, how great is that.

Tesla is attacking 3 markets here, Luxury German small sedans, Japanese midsize sedans and Apple. Yes, Apple. This is where all your customers who buy the next upgrade are about to spend their dollars very soon. If Apple wants people to buy their watch they might want to start working on apps that interface with Tesla right away.

I predict that Tesla will follow the trajectory of Apple all the way to where Apple is today.

Apple like Microsoft will write software that runs in most brands of car. Tesla will produce the cars and the software that people who just want a solution that works, most of the time.

I used to build my own computers and spend hours experimenting with the latest modems and graphics cards. Then about 2006 I gave all that up and since I went Mac I never looked back.

My next car will probably be a Bolt or eGolf. My next car after that. A Tesla S when the price hits around $40k, maybe a second generation 3 when it hits $35k with all the bells and whistles.

Just this last year I stopped doing most of my own car repairs. With any luck brakes will be off my list of repairs as well.

I am looking forward to the day that auto mechanics wear lab coats and not overalls.

Coming form a guy who sells Synthetic Motor Oils that says a lot! Amsoil, the next best thing to being oil free.

 

Tesla 3, Should Detroit be scared?

It’s been a little over a month since the Tesla 3 was unveiled and I haven’t posted anything about it till today. Odd for a blog about electric vehicles. After all, Tesla is the EV by which all other EV’s are measured.

Well, for one thing the Tesla 3 is little more than a prototype, just like the Chevy Bolt. Neither car is in production or it’s final form. All we have seen of both is a body and and some basic interior shots. Neither of these cars floats my boat, yet.

But what I find interesting about both these cars is, that while neither is in production both are setting standards for what an EV has to be to appeal to a mass market. Or at least what people think they need to be able to appeal to a mass market.

Let’s look at the supposed needs to make this car appeal to more than just a few early adopters who run out and buy the latest product Apple has to offer.

A car with a range of 200 miles. Why 200 miles. Because that’s about the average range of a gas powered vehicle. The reality though is people don’t drive 200 miles a day. They drive 200 miles between fill ups. That could be 6 hours or 6 days. For most people that’s once or twice a week. Not daily.

Right now most EV’s have a range of 70 miles. 95% of the time that’s really enough. Most people with EV’s plug in every night. Ask your average EV’r and they will tell you they love never having to stop for gas and that the 70 miles they get is more than they need most of the time. While they have a second vehicle in the family the EV gets driven the most and the second car rarely gets used. The person who drives the least drives the ICE car. Maybe once a month it goes for that drive to the long weekend vacation. Maybe.

Currently there are several EV’s like the Ford Focus, Kia Soul and VW eGolf that can do this no problem and for less than $35k. And that brings us to the next holy grail number.

Priced less than $35k. Really, that’s the number that it takes to get people to run out in masse and buy an EV? I think not. That might kill sales of the BMW 3 Series or other German Cars in it’s class but it’s not going to kill sales of the average family sedan.

The average midsize sedan sells more cars in 2 months than BMW sells 3’s in a year. And they sell on average for a lot less than $35k. The top end is $35k. Not everyone buys the most expensive trim level. Most don’t.

The Tesla 3 and the Bolt and all the rest of the EV’s out there with the only exceptions being the Tesla S and X are all compact cars. Tesla 3 will most likely have an edge here as the 3 is on a compact frame but since it was built from the ground up as an EV it will make far better use of the space available.

And now lets talk about the real elephant in the room. Tesla can’t use sales of their big SUV’s and Pick Up Trucks to subsidize the sales of the 3. They will be selling a lot of CAFE credits to the other automakers but they can’t charge $80k for an Escalade and sell a Volt for $10k less than it costs to build. And since we know that very few 3’s are going to roll of the assembly line with zero options just like very few BMW’s roll of the assembly line with zero options just like a BMW 3 the average price of a Tesla 3 will likely top $50k.

Who want’s to drive a compact car cross country? Not me. I really don’t think that many people drive their Tesla’s across the country now. A few just to prove they could and get their video on youtube but really? The Tesla 3 and the rest of the EV’s out there are only going more than 100 miles in day when the person moves from one city to another. Or like my Ford Focus that needed to get from L.A. to Phoenix because it was cheaper and readily available in California.

There is another problem that all automakers are going to have with their EV’s. I don’t care if it’s Tesla, Honda, Nissan or Apple. Not everyone like the way a car looks. To me the Leaf isn’t cute or futuristic, it’s plain ugly. I like the Mazda 6 but I don’t like the way the Mazda 3 looks. Or should I say the Tesla 3 since the same guy designed the Mazda and the Tesla.

I do like the way the Ford Focus and the VW eGolf look. I’ll wait till they have t drop their price to sell their compliance cars that starting next year will get about 110 miles of range. More than enough for 99.9% of what I need.

Will they have autopilot? Probably not. If I want all the killer new tech I might just have to wait and see if Chevy really produces the Bolt in a configuration they have said they will launch with Lyft, the other car service. Maybe the Bolt will save Lyft, or the Lyft will produce a bigger market for the Bolt. I’m not sure how that will work or who it will help.

What I do know for sure is that EV’s are here to stay this time around. Tesla has forced Detroit to take them seriously this time around. People want cars that run on electricity and they want cars that can pretty much drive themselves while we text and read email or Facebook.

While Tesla has close to 400k people on an interest list that have ponied up $1k a piece for the privilege of standing in line hoping to get one they have lit a fire under GM and probably BMW and Mercedes to get their own versions out ASAP.

I have not put $1k on the line to hold my place. I’m counting on one of the other companies to get out there and compete against Tesla that has a dealer network and service centers near my house to get the job done first.

I’m actually betting Audi or VW might beat them to the punch.

I’m not counting Tesla out though. Tesla is going to sell a lot of cars. They are going to be the Apple of the auto industry. They are going to produce a specialty product that lots of people want and can be special for quite a while. They are going to disrupt the usual way of doing business selling cars over the next 20 years. Apple might even catch up to them or buy them one day.

But right now my purchase dollars are not with Tesla. But it took me till 2006 to dump my Windows computers. Now I’m all Apple. Maybe by 2026 I’ll be all in on Tesla. Just not today.

 

Tesla Stock Down! Cheap Gas Kills EV Car Sales, or Does It?

Will lower gas prices have a large effect on EV sales?

To a certain extent but there is a way that car makers could diminish the cheap gas advantage.

The Tesla has never been a car whose sales have been driven by high fuel prices. It’s appeal has been in performance and technology as well as status and muted luxury.

Anybody who has driven an EV loves the real world acceleration. By real world I mean 0-30. The burst of energy to change lanes or get on the freeway.

The average car takes much longer from a full stop to 30 MPH than an EV. From 30-60 it’s about the same time but the gasoline car spend from 30-60 catching up.

0-60 in 4 seconds is nice but in an ICE car that requires tens of thousands of dollars and an average MPG of around 12 MPG everyday to do that the very fews times you need that power. You just don’t need or can’t really enjoy your 700HP vehicle as much as you would like to.

Your 2 seat loud and obnoxious sports cars are the proverbial 12 inch penis. Impressive looking but not to many places that can handle all of it.

The only place cars like those have any use other than getting you a superficial mate are on the track. And they are actually more likely to get you tickets than they are a mate if you are not that good looking anyway that you need to buy the car to have women look at you.

Add to that most people with cars like that never take them to a track like many Jeep or 4×4 owners never take them off road and you have probably explained why most Americans think they are broke and don’t like to pay taxes.

Car makers have to stop only building tiny compact EV’s as well. While they might get the job done they aren’t impressive at all, don’t tell me that size doesn’t matter. Small might be able to fit in any parking spot but only the city dweller sees that as an advantage.  We don’t live in Europe.

Most Americans don’t fit in a Smart EV or Fiat EV.  We are large people. Many of us are over 6 feet tall and many are over 200 pounds. Or both. We need cars we fit in.

In order to get more people into the cars they need to be real world cars. The e-Golf and Mercedes B-Class are a nice start but they are still too expensive for only having 80 miles of range.

The new cars being announced with 200 mile ranges will start selling if you really build enough and sell them outside of the few CARB States.

They will outsell the Chevy Volt which still isn’t a 5 passenger car. The rear leg room is still to small. And the battery down the middle is just as bad as the Ford and their batteries across the truck or cargo bay. They will not find many new buyers. They will just keep many of the buyers they have. Unless they change to a flat battery pack under the floor.

The greatest thing about owning an EV, or even a Hybrid,  is rarely or ever having to stop to buy gas. Even if the price of gas is $1 per gallon. The approximate equilibrium price of gas to electricity as fuel for cars.

It really is nice to come home at night and just plug in your car instead of having to wait in line and pump gas.

The worst part now about driving any car is filling up the gas tank. It’s rare that I ever get the gas station to myself. Then after waiting in line for 5-10 minutes, I have to get out, swipe my card and spend 5 minutes looking at the guy next to me that cut in front or committed some breach of gas station etiquette.

With an EV you just pull into the garage, plug in and walk into the house and go about your normal business. You wouldn’t even think of buying a phone where you had to go to the store and buy new batteries every few days. Then through the dead batteries on the street like the emissions form your tail pipe.

With the advent of the 100 mile plus battery, which is enough for most peoples daily commute, that will be shortly followed by the 200 mile battery, the plug it in at night car that can work for 100% of your daily driving needs will be all you really need.

Add to that, no more oil changes, tune ups and all those other regular maintenance items that an internal combustion engine car has and you will be hooked.

That doesn’t even included all the environmental benefits.

A 200 mile range, 5 seats and a price tag of $30k in a sporty car like a VW Golf or Kia Soul might just be what it takes to get this evolution in transportation to catch on.

It will be interesting to see how Tesla responds to these challengers that are now taking the 200 mile advantage away from Tesla.

I don’t think it will be long before my 12 year old son looks at driving a gasoline powered vehicle like he does someone smoking a cigarette. We know smoking is hazardous to your health and does cause cancer. The same thing is true of ICE vehicles.

We are just not willing to admit it yet as we love our cars.

The automakers are just starting to give us EV’s we can love.

Thanks Elon. You’re the guy who got this party started. Hopefully you keep leading the way and not letting the Big 3 kill the EV like G.M. did in the past.

I don’t think the big automakers are going to rest unless you stumble and fall.

I don’t think Apple and Google will really be a threat to the Big 3 like Tesla. For some reason you’ve got them really scared even though you only build less than 10’000 cars a month.

I might just have to buy Tesla stock now that it back down to the Moon instead of Mars, a place you want to go. Once the price comes back down to Earth people wont think your shooting for the stars.

 

 

 

 

Chevy Bolt. Tesla Killer?

The Chevrolet 2017 Bolt EV

2017 Chevrolet Bolt

From what I’ve seen of the 2017 Chevrolet Bolt it is an impressive car.

A price tag of less than $30k  after tax breaks, 200 plus miles of range. Fold flat seats, lot’s of safety features and a rear view mirror that doubles as a rear view monitor. What’s not to like?

 

But will it kill the elusive not yet produced Tesla 3 as many predict? I doubt it. Contrary to popular belief, range isn’t everything.

What Tesla has that Chevrolet, and every other EV manufacturer doesn’t, are the following:

  • Supercharger Network.
  • Direct Sales
  • Their only cars are EV’s

Why is that important?

You can have a 200 mile range but if you don’t have anyplace to charge the car at a reasonable cost, and in a reasonable amount of time, the only thing that 200 mile range does is let you get farther from home before you have to stop for the night to recharge.

Most franchise dealers either don’t want to or don’t know how to sell an all electric vehicle. If you don’t walk into a car dealer asking to drive or buy an EV they won’t even tell you they have one. Try walking into a dealer some day and tell them you’re looking for something that 99% of the time all you do is drive to work and back and usually less than 70 miles a day and see what they tell you to buy.

What it will do, make Tesla up their game on standard equipment. The Tesla 3 won’t be able to sell less car than Chevrolet. But neither will any other EV manufacturer.

But, that brings me to another question. How many and in what States will Chevrolet actually make the car available? Do they really want to sell this car? Is it just another compliance car?

While California residents will probably buy the majority of Bolts, it will put Nissan on notice. The Nissan Leaf is getting old. Even with the new 110 mile battery it’s still like a 4 year old iPhone for the price of a new one.

The Ford Focus EV is still the best buy in my book and with an improved range of 100 plus miles and DC Charging will make it as useful as the Bolt and if it keeps it’s $30k price tag with all the standard equipment it has now it’s a far better deal than any other EV out there.

My favorite pricy EV’s are still the VW Golf SEL, Kia Soul EV and Mercedes B Class. They are going to have to make the interior of the Bolt really nice to compete in that market. Even VW had to unload a bunch of SL Models for $99 a month for 3 years last December. Stripped down models don’t sell well anymore.  The Leaf S is like buying a flip phone at a smartphone price.

I see some real deals in the near future on other EV’s when the Bolt comes out. If like most people, 80 miles of range works for you, like it does for me.  A similar featured compliance car like the Focus at $20k after Tax Rebate will be the better deal.

The biggest problem GM will have is that EV buyers usually know what they need and know how to do the math. And how many EV buyers “want” a Chevrolet? Lot’s of them want a Tesla. I know I do. They just haven’t made one that makes economic sense for the average person.

What it might do is help them sell more Volts. A car that is similarly priced, has suitable EV range for 99% of the time and can drive cross country once every few years to visit grandma.

 

The 2016 V.W. e-Golf, my opinion.

This weekend my wife wanted to go to Los Angeles for the weekend. While we did the Star Tour and some of the tourist type things, one of the reasons for me to go was to drive a couple of EV’s.

Living in Arizona and not a C.A.R.B. State I can’t just go down to the local dealer and test drive any EV. Even the EV’s like the Focus and Benz really don’t ship many cars to non CARB States.

So here is my take on the e-Golf. It’s a really nice car. It drives like a Golf. Nice tight handling, nice ride and quite. It has a very tight turning radius. There is no torque steer like the Focus or Rav4 EV.

You can find the main differences on the V.W. website but here are the main ones.

SE. Cloth seats, no nav and slow charging (3.6kW) even on level 2 and no DC charging.

None of these things would stop me from buying the $7k cheaper vehicle if the only places I needed to charge was work or home. If you don’t need to add range quickly and the 70-80 miles of range is all you need then go of it.

With one exception, and for me it’s a big exception. It doesn’t have cruise control.  If you want to get the best range out of car then a cruise control is the best way to get it.

A few other things it missing besides the luxury upgrades. There are no steering wheel controls at all. No phone or radio controls at all.

I does interface with Apple Car Play and Google ver nicely. So there really is no need for the onboard navigation or any of the other proprietary radio garbage of most automakers.

If my choice was a Nissan Leaf S or the e-Golf SE I think I would choose the e-Golf. If I could buy a Leaf SV or SL vs the e-Golf SEL, I would buy the e-Golf SEL.

I still think the Ford Focus EV is still the best value out there for what you get but it does have its drawbacks.

If you are in the market for an EV and live in a State or near a State where the e-Golf is sold it’s definitely worth checking one out. I think you will like it.

It has plenty of room for a 6 footer in the front seats. A couple of kids in the back or an adult or two for a short ride to get lunch.

If you also want a peppy little car to zip around in that fits in some tight spaces and can cram a bunch of cargo in the back with the seats down this car might be for you.

When will car makers get serious about EV’s? Can Electric Companies Help?

There is a big promise by car makers being told, or should I say, sold.What is it? That the next generation or EV cars will get 200 miles or more of range and be sold for about $35k.

That only solves half the problem.

What good is a 200 mile battery when your useful range is really only 80 miles?

Why do I say only 80 miles? Because if you don’t have a place to charge where you are going then you have to turn around when you hit half you range.

But isn’t 100 miles half your range? No, not really. You can never count on 100% of your battery potential. There are several things that can change that. Going up hill, going over 65, and don’t  forget what temperature extremes can do to range. Then you have things like detours, construction delays and traffic.

Another problem that is brought up all the time is, how will people who live in cities or apartments who don’t have access to Level2 Charging be able to own EV’s. This is one reason GM and others aren’t looking past hybrids.

This is where Tesla has started to solve that problem. The Supercharger network. They have put chargers where people can go 200 miles or so and stop for 20-30 minutes and then keep going. Not going back home. These chargers are spaced across the Country so people can actually drive coast to coast or border to border. Not just to work and back.

They also have what they call destination chargers. They give chargers to hotels and some businesses where people might spend the night or stop for a while. Level2 Chargers but still, people will bring there Tesla’s there before they use other like businesses. Nothing like having people who can spend 100k plus on a car wanting to spend money at your business.

If the other cars companies aren’t willing to put in DC Charging in strategic locations, that 200 mile battery will still pretty much be an around town errand car, and not the once in a while drive to grandma’s or Disney Land for vacation.

I can do most of my daily driving and just recharge on 110v power. If I used my 75 mile range every day before i got home I would have to use Level2 charging to refill to capacity by the next day. Double the capacity of my battery and Level2 would be the minimum needed, not the exception.

Get enough 200 mile range cars out there and actual commercial charging stations could become financially viable. More so than hydrogen. Hydrogen stations are expensive. Yes, you might be able to fill up in 10 minutes or less but is that really what businesses want. There is a reason that Walgreens says it’s going to be at least 20 minutes to fill your prescription, even if all they have to do is grab a bottle and print a label. The longer you have to wait the more likely you are to buy something you don’t really need. Marginal Revenue.

QuickTrip and CircleK want to sell you food and Big Gulps. Candy, pizza and cigarettes. They probably make as much on a Hot Dog as a tank of gas.

Get enough EV’s out there with QC capability and that 20 minutes to fill up might just be perfect for Costco, Target or Whole Foods to colocate with Charging stations. Think of all the places people spend 20 minutes a day or two a week.

Those truck/rest stop restaurants might not be as filthy if more people actually spent 20 minutes filling up while they get a burger or a slice while on a cross country trip.

Instead of Electric Companies worrying about losing all their business to solar panels maybe they should start thinking ahead and getting the wiring in place for a few DC Charge stations. That way when the scales get tipped they are the new oil companies. Out with the old and in with the really old. Edison and GE predate Standard Oil.

I find it odd that electric companies will provide incentives to buy LED light bulbs and Energy Star fridges and AC units yet they have problems with people putting up solar panels. They preach conservation yet when it comes to the ultimate conservation they cry foul.

If you want people to buy more electricity then imagine a kilowatt sold per 4 miles driven. Do you know how much Americans drive? That’s about 10kW a day. Based on a 40 mile average. About 2600 kW a year. or about $364 a year at 14 cents per kWh. Multiply that $354 by 200 million and imagine how much that would add to the bottom line of the Electric Companies.

And most people consume that power during the day but fill up at night. Win, win. Add 200 mile batteries to the mix and all those solar panels will provide the peak demand the cars who can’t fill up at night need.

If I were the CEO of an Electric Company I’d be getting solar panels on peoples roofs now and building out the infrastructure to get ready to charge all those cars.

You might even want to give as much of an incentive to buy an electric car as you do to upgrade to a higher SEER AC unit.

You can help start the next great change in technology. Look at what Cellphone companies did to land lines. Look at how the internet is hitting TV and Newspapers.

You can be on the forefront by providing the infrastructure and shifting income from Oil Companies to Electric Companies. I’m still surprised you guys haven’t cashed in on internet services. You do have a wire going in to almost every house.

Why sell power to the refineries when you can cut out the middle man.

California, Arizona and Nevada. Lead the way.