Author Archives: bwinsberg

Cult of Tesla (Motors)

In my last post I asked if Detroit should be worried about Tesla and the Tesla 3. I said that it would mostly effect the Germans and the BMW 3 series in particular.

Since I wrote that I have personally met 2 people that have put their money down to reserve a spot for a Tesla 3.

Oddly they are very much like me. They are not luxury car buyers. They don’t spend big bucks on status. They are Toyota and Honda buyers. They drive cars till they fall apart.

What else they have in common is they make 6 figure incomes. They would strongly fit in the category of the millionaire next door. They don’t show wealth, they have it.

Another thing they have in common is they embrace technology. They are the customers that Apple loves.

These are the same people that bought the second generation iPhone and iPad. The one that had shown some usefulness although not as much as today.

Why is this important? Quite frankly, the car doesn’t have to be perfect. The biggest complaint about the iPhone is that as a phone it sucks. Reliability is actually not all that great. Mostly because the network carriers that place the calls but there are bug fixes and software updates all the time.

Well, just like we have learned to tolerate less than perfect reliability from our phones we will allow the same annoyances from our cars. That is if the car is “special”. And the Tesla if anything is special.

Just look at Consumer Reports. In their initial tests the car broke the 100 point barrier. Yet when looking at long term reliability they can no longer recommend the car. Seriously?

You can’t really expect Tesla to compete with a Honda Civic or Toyota Camry. They are basically reliable transportation, but not much fun to drive. They are not as dull as driving a Prius or Yaris but there is no joy in flooring the accelerator on an entry ramp and reaching 60 MPH in 8-10 seconds.

The Tesla can have a few bugs and even need a trip or two to the Tesla version of the Genius Bar every now and then and people will still love it. As Consumer Reports bares out with there less than stellar reliability rating after the initial wow of 100 plus.

As long as the car performs the cool things fairly well people will tolerate a few bugs.

Driving an EV that can do 0-30 faster than almost any ICE car is pretty cool but having an EV that can do 0-60 in six seconds will make that trip to work just that much more fun. Then when you get on the highway having the car do most of the driving for you, how great is that.

Tesla is attacking 3 markets here, Luxury German small sedans, Japanese midsize sedans and Apple. Yes, Apple. This is where all your customers who buy the next upgrade are about to spend their dollars very soon. If Apple wants people to buy their watch they might want to start working on apps that interface with Tesla right away.

I predict that Tesla will follow the trajectory of Apple all the way to where Apple is today.

Apple like Microsoft will write software that runs in most brands of car. Tesla will produce the cars and the software that people who just want a solution that works, most of the time.

I used to build my own computers and spend hours experimenting with the latest modems and graphics cards. Then about 2006 I gave all that up and since I went Mac I never looked back.

My next car will probably be a Bolt or eGolf. My next car after that. A Tesla S when the price hits around $40k, maybe a second generation 3 when it hits $35k with all the bells and whistles.

Just this last year I stopped doing most of my own car repairs. With any luck brakes will be off my list of repairs as well.

I am looking forward to the day that auto mechanics wear lab coats and not overalls.

Coming form a guy who sells Synthetic Motor Oils that says a lot! Amsoil, the next best thing to being oil free.

 

Tesla 3, Should Detroit be scared?

It’s been a little over a month since the Tesla 3 was unveiled and I haven’t posted anything about it till today. Odd for a blog about electric vehicles. After all, Tesla is the EV by which all other EV’s are measured.

Well, for one thing the Tesla 3 is little more than a prototype, just like the Chevy Bolt. Neither car is in production or it’s final form. All we have seen of both is a body and and some basic interior shots. Neither of these cars floats my boat, yet.

But what I find interesting about both these cars is, that while neither is in production both are setting standards for what an EV has to be to appeal to a mass market. Or at least what people think they need to be able to appeal to a mass market.

Let’s look at the supposed needs to make this car appeal to more than just a few early adopters who run out and buy the latest product Apple has to offer.

A car with a range of 200 miles. Why 200 miles. Because that’s about the average range of a gas powered vehicle. The reality though is people don’t drive 200 miles a day. They drive 200 miles between fill ups. That could be 6 hours or 6 days. For most people that’s once or twice a week. Not daily.

Right now most EV’s have a range of 70 miles. 95% of the time that’s really enough. Most people with EV’s plug in every night. Ask your average EV’r and they will tell you they love never having to stop for gas and that the 70 miles they get is more than they need most of the time. While they have a second vehicle in the family the EV gets driven the most and the second car rarely gets used. The person who drives the least drives the ICE car. Maybe once a month it goes for that drive to the long weekend vacation. Maybe.

Currently there are several EV’s like the Ford Focus, Kia Soul and VW eGolf that can do this no problem and for less than $35k. And that brings us to the next holy grail number.

Priced less than $35k. Really, that’s the number that it takes to get people to run out in masse and buy an EV? I think not. That might kill sales of the BMW 3 Series or other German Cars in it’s class but it’s not going to kill sales of the average family sedan.

The average midsize sedan sells more cars in 2 months than BMW sells 3’s in a year. And they sell on average for a lot less than $35k. The top end is $35k. Not everyone buys the most expensive trim level. Most don’t.

The Tesla 3 and the Bolt and all the rest of the EV’s out there with the only exceptions being the Tesla S and X are all compact cars. Tesla 3 will most likely have an edge here as the 3 is on a compact frame but since it was built from the ground up as an EV it will make far better use of the space available.

And now lets talk about the real elephant in the room. Tesla can’t use sales of their big SUV’s and Pick Up Trucks to subsidize the sales of the 3. They will be selling a lot of CAFE credits to the other automakers but they can’t charge $80k for an Escalade and sell a Volt for $10k less than it costs to build. And since we know that very few 3’s are going to roll of the assembly line with zero options just like very few BMW’s roll of the assembly line with zero options just like a BMW 3 the average price of a Tesla 3 will likely top $50k.

Who want’s to drive a compact car cross country? Not me. I really don’t think that many people drive their Tesla’s across the country now. A few just to prove they could and get their video on youtube but really? The Tesla 3 and the rest of the EV’s out there are only going more than 100 miles in day when the person moves from one city to another. Or like my Ford Focus that needed to get from L.A. to Phoenix because it was cheaper and readily available in California.

There is another problem that all automakers are going to have with their EV’s. I don’t care if it’s Tesla, Honda, Nissan or Apple. Not everyone like the way a car looks. To me the Leaf isn’t cute or futuristic, it’s plain ugly. I like the Mazda 6 but I don’t like the way the Mazda 3 looks. Or should I say the Tesla 3 since the same guy designed the Mazda and the Tesla.

I do like the way the Ford Focus and the VW eGolf look. I’ll wait till they have t drop their price to sell their compliance cars that starting next year will get about 110 miles of range. More than enough for 99.9% of what I need.

Will they have autopilot? Probably not. If I want all the killer new tech I might just have to wait and see if Chevy really produces the Bolt in a configuration they have said they will launch with Lyft, the other car service. Maybe the Bolt will save Lyft, or the Lyft will produce a bigger market for the Bolt. I’m not sure how that will work or who it will help.

What I do know for sure is that EV’s are here to stay this time around. Tesla has forced Detroit to take them seriously this time around. People want cars that run on electricity and they want cars that can pretty much drive themselves while we text and read email or Facebook.

While Tesla has close to 400k people on an interest list that have ponied up $1k a piece for the privilege of standing in line hoping to get one they have lit a fire under GM and probably BMW and Mercedes to get their own versions out ASAP.

I have not put $1k on the line to hold my place. I’m counting on one of the other companies to get out there and compete against Tesla that has a dealer network and service centers near my house to get the job done first.

I’m actually betting Audi or VW might beat them to the punch.

I’m not counting Tesla out though. Tesla is going to sell a lot of cars. They are going to be the Apple of the auto industry. They are going to produce a specialty product that lots of people want and can be special for quite a while. They are going to disrupt the usual way of doing business selling cars over the next 20 years. Apple might even catch up to them or buy them one day.

But right now my purchase dollars are not with Tesla. But it took me till 2006 to dump my Windows computers. Now I’m all Apple. Maybe by 2026 I’ll be all in on Tesla. Just not today.

 

Tesla Stock Down! Cheap Gas Kills EV Car Sales, or Does It?

Will lower gas prices have a large effect on EV sales?

To a certain extent but there is a way that car makers could diminish the cheap gas advantage.

The Tesla has never been a car whose sales have been driven by high fuel prices. It’s appeal has been in performance and technology as well as status and muted luxury.

Anybody who has driven an EV loves the real world acceleration. By real world I mean 0-30. The burst of energy to change lanes or get on the freeway.

The average car takes much longer from a full stop to 30 MPH than an EV. From 30-60 it’s about the same time but the gasoline car spend from 30-60 catching up.

0-60 in 4 seconds is nice but in an ICE car that requires tens of thousands of dollars and an average MPG of around 12 MPG everyday to do that the very fews times you need that power. You just don’t need or can’t really enjoy your 700HP vehicle as much as you would like to.

Your 2 seat loud and obnoxious sports cars are the proverbial 12 inch penis. Impressive looking but not to many places that can handle all of it.

The only place cars like those have any use other than getting you a superficial mate are on the track. And they are actually more likely to get you tickets than they are a mate if you are not that good looking anyway that you need to buy the car to have women look at you.

Add to that most people with cars like that never take them to a track like many Jeep or 4×4 owners never take them off road and you have probably explained why most Americans think they are broke and don’t like to pay taxes.

Car makers have to stop only building tiny compact EV’s as well. While they might get the job done they aren’t impressive at all, don’t tell me that size doesn’t matter. Small might be able to fit in any parking spot but only the city dweller sees that as an advantage.  We don’t live in Europe.

Most Americans don’t fit in a Smart EV or Fiat EV.  We are large people. Many of us are over 6 feet tall and many are over 200 pounds. Or both. We need cars we fit in.

In order to get more people into the cars they need to be real world cars. The e-Golf and Mercedes B-Class are a nice start but they are still too expensive for only having 80 miles of range.

The new cars being announced with 200 mile ranges will start selling if you really build enough and sell them outside of the few CARB States.

They will outsell the Chevy Volt which still isn’t a 5 passenger car. The rear leg room is still to small. And the battery down the middle is just as bad as the Ford and their batteries across the truck or cargo bay. They will not find many new buyers. They will just keep many of the buyers they have. Unless they change to a flat battery pack under the floor.

The greatest thing about owning an EV, or even a Hybrid,  is rarely or ever having to stop to buy gas. Even if the price of gas is $1 per gallon. The approximate equilibrium price of gas to electricity as fuel for cars.

It really is nice to come home at night and just plug in your car instead of having to wait in line and pump gas.

The worst part now about driving any car is filling up the gas tank. It’s rare that I ever get the gas station to myself. Then after waiting in line for 5-10 minutes, I have to get out, swipe my card and spend 5 minutes looking at the guy next to me that cut in front or committed some breach of gas station etiquette.

With an EV you just pull into the garage, plug in and walk into the house and go about your normal business. You wouldn’t even think of buying a phone where you had to go to the store and buy new batteries every few days. Then through the dead batteries on the street like the emissions form your tail pipe.

With the advent of the 100 mile plus battery, which is enough for most peoples daily commute, that will be shortly followed by the 200 mile battery, the plug it in at night car that can work for 100% of your daily driving needs will be all you really need.

Add to that, no more oil changes, tune ups and all those other regular maintenance items that an internal combustion engine car has and you will be hooked.

That doesn’t even included all the environmental benefits.

A 200 mile range, 5 seats and a price tag of $30k in a sporty car like a VW Golf or Kia Soul might just be what it takes to get this evolution in transportation to catch on.

It will be interesting to see how Tesla responds to these challengers that are now taking the 200 mile advantage away from Tesla.

I don’t think it will be long before my 12 year old son looks at driving a gasoline powered vehicle like he does someone smoking a cigarette. We know smoking is hazardous to your health and does cause cancer. The same thing is true of ICE vehicles.

We are just not willing to admit it yet as we love our cars.

The automakers are just starting to give us EV’s we can love.

Thanks Elon. You’re the guy who got this party started. Hopefully you keep leading the way and not letting the Big 3 kill the EV like G.M. did in the past.

I don’t think the big automakers are going to rest unless you stumble and fall.

I don’t think Apple and Google will really be a threat to the Big 3 like Tesla. For some reason you’ve got them really scared even though you only build less than 10’000 cars a month.

I might just have to buy Tesla stock now that it back down to the Moon instead of Mars, a place you want to go. Once the price comes back down to Earth people wont think your shooting for the stars.

 

 

 

 

Chevy Bolt. Tesla Killer?

The Chevrolet 2017 Bolt EV

2017 Chevrolet Bolt

From what I’ve seen of the 2017 Chevrolet Bolt it is an impressive car.

A price tag of less than $30k  after tax breaks, 200 plus miles of range. Fold flat seats, lot’s of safety features and a rear view mirror that doubles as a rear view monitor. What’s not to like?

 

But will it kill the elusive not yet produced Tesla 3 as many predict? I doubt it. Contrary to popular belief, range isn’t everything.

What Tesla has that Chevrolet, and every other EV manufacturer doesn’t, are the following:

  • Supercharger Network.
  • Direct Sales
  • Their only cars are EV’s

Why is that important?

You can have a 200 mile range but if you don’t have anyplace to charge the car at a reasonable cost, and in a reasonable amount of time, the only thing that 200 mile range does is let you get farther from home before you have to stop for the night to recharge.

Most franchise dealers either don’t want to or don’t know how to sell an all electric vehicle. If you don’t walk into a car dealer asking to drive or buy an EV they won’t even tell you they have one. Try walking into a dealer some day and tell them you’re looking for something that 99% of the time all you do is drive to work and back and usually less than 70 miles a day and see what they tell you to buy.

What it will do, make Tesla up their game on standard equipment. The Tesla 3 won’t be able to sell less car than Chevrolet. But neither will any other EV manufacturer.

But, that brings me to another question. How many and in what States will Chevrolet actually make the car available? Do they really want to sell this car? Is it just another compliance car?

While California residents will probably buy the majority of Bolts, it will put Nissan on notice. The Nissan Leaf is getting old. Even with the new 110 mile battery it’s still like a 4 year old iPhone for the price of a new one.

The Ford Focus EV is still the best buy in my book and with an improved range of 100 plus miles and DC Charging will make it as useful as the Bolt and if it keeps it’s $30k price tag with all the standard equipment it has now it’s a far better deal than any other EV out there.

My favorite pricy EV’s are still the VW Golf SEL, Kia Soul EV and Mercedes B Class. They are going to have to make the interior of the Bolt really nice to compete in that market. Even VW had to unload a bunch of SL Models for $99 a month for 3 years last December. Stripped down models don’t sell well anymore.  The Leaf S is like buying a flip phone at a smartphone price.

I see some real deals in the near future on other EV’s when the Bolt comes out. If like most people, 80 miles of range works for you, like it does for me.  A similar featured compliance car like the Focus at $20k after Tax Rebate will be the better deal.

The biggest problem GM will have is that EV buyers usually know what they need and know how to do the math. And how many EV buyers “want” a Chevrolet? Lot’s of them want a Tesla. I know I do. They just haven’t made one that makes economic sense for the average person.

What it might do is help them sell more Volts. A car that is similarly priced, has suitable EV range for 99% of the time and can drive cross country once every few years to visit grandma.

 

The 2016 V.W. e-Golf, my opinion.

This weekend my wife wanted to go to Los Angeles for the weekend. While we did the Star Tour and some of the tourist type things, one of the reasons for me to go was to drive a couple of EV’s.

Living in Arizona and not a C.A.R.B. State I can’t just go down to the local dealer and test drive any EV. Even the EV’s like the Focus and Benz really don’t ship many cars to non CARB States.

So here is my take on the e-Golf. It’s a really nice car. It drives like a Golf. Nice tight handling, nice ride and quite. It has a very tight turning radius. There is no torque steer like the Focus or Rav4 EV.

You can find the main differences on the V.W. website but here are the main ones.

SE. Cloth seats, no nav and slow charging (3.6kW) even on level 2 and no DC charging.

None of these things would stop me from buying the $7k cheaper vehicle if the only places I needed to charge was work or home. If you don’t need to add range quickly and the 70-80 miles of range is all you need then go of it.

With one exception, and for me it’s a big exception. It doesn’t have cruise control.  If you want to get the best range out of car then a cruise control is the best way to get it.

A few other things it missing besides the luxury upgrades. There are no steering wheel controls at all. No phone or radio controls at all.

I does interface with Apple Car Play and Google ver nicely. So there really is no need for the onboard navigation or any of the other proprietary radio garbage of most automakers.

If my choice was a Nissan Leaf S or the e-Golf SE I think I would choose the e-Golf. If I could buy a Leaf SV or SL vs the e-Golf SEL, I would buy the e-Golf SEL.

I still think the Ford Focus EV is still the best value out there for what you get but it does have its drawbacks.

If you are in the market for an EV and live in a State or near a State where the e-Golf is sold it’s definitely worth checking one out. I think you will like it.

It has plenty of room for a 6 footer in the front seats. A couple of kids in the back or an adult or two for a short ride to get lunch.

If you also want a peppy little car to zip around in that fits in some tight spaces and can cram a bunch of cargo in the back with the seats down this car might be for you.

When will car makers get serious about EV’s? Can Electric Companies Help?

There is a big promise by car makers being told, or should I say, sold.What is it? That the next generation or EV cars will get 200 miles or more of range and be sold for about $35k.

That only solves half the problem.

What good is a 200 mile battery when your useful range is really only 80 miles?

Why do I say only 80 miles? Because if you don’t have a place to charge where you are going then you have to turn around when you hit half you range.

But isn’t 100 miles half your range? No, not really. You can never count on 100% of your battery potential. There are several things that can change that. Going up hill, going over 65, and don’t  forget what temperature extremes can do to range. Then you have things like detours, construction delays and traffic.

Another problem that is brought up all the time is, how will people who live in cities or apartments who don’t have access to Level2 Charging be able to own EV’s. This is one reason GM and others aren’t looking past hybrids.

This is where Tesla has started to solve that problem. The Supercharger network. They have put chargers where people can go 200 miles or so and stop for 20-30 minutes and then keep going. Not going back home. These chargers are spaced across the Country so people can actually drive coast to coast or border to border. Not just to work and back.

They also have what they call destination chargers. They give chargers to hotels and some businesses where people might spend the night or stop for a while. Level2 Chargers but still, people will bring there Tesla’s there before they use other like businesses. Nothing like having people who can spend 100k plus on a car wanting to spend money at your business.

If the other cars companies aren’t willing to put in DC Charging in strategic locations, that 200 mile battery will still pretty much be an around town errand car, and not the once in a while drive to grandma’s or Disney Land for vacation.

I can do most of my daily driving and just recharge on 110v power. If I used my 75 mile range every day before i got home I would have to use Level2 charging to refill to capacity by the next day. Double the capacity of my battery and Level2 would be the minimum needed, not the exception.

Get enough 200 mile range cars out there and actual commercial charging stations could become financially viable. More so than hydrogen. Hydrogen stations are expensive. Yes, you might be able to fill up in 10 minutes or less but is that really what businesses want. There is a reason that Walgreens says it’s going to be at least 20 minutes to fill your prescription, even if all they have to do is grab a bottle and print a label. The longer you have to wait the more likely you are to buy something you don’t really need. Marginal Revenue.

QuickTrip and CircleK want to sell you food and Big Gulps. Candy, pizza and cigarettes. They probably make as much on a Hot Dog as a tank of gas.

Get enough EV’s out there with QC capability and that 20 minutes to fill up might just be perfect for Costco, Target or Whole Foods to colocate with Charging stations. Think of all the places people spend 20 minutes a day or two a week.

Those truck/rest stop restaurants might not be as filthy if more people actually spent 20 minutes filling up while they get a burger or a slice while on a cross country trip.

Instead of Electric Companies worrying about losing all their business to solar panels maybe they should start thinking ahead and getting the wiring in place for a few DC Charge stations. That way when the scales get tipped they are the new oil companies. Out with the old and in with the really old. Edison and GE predate Standard Oil.

I find it odd that electric companies will provide incentives to buy LED light bulbs and Energy Star fridges and AC units yet they have problems with people putting up solar panels. They preach conservation yet when it comes to the ultimate conservation they cry foul.

If you want people to buy more electricity then imagine a kilowatt sold per 4 miles driven. Do you know how much Americans drive? That’s about 10kW a day. Based on a 40 mile average. About 2600 kW a year. or about $364 a year at 14 cents per kWh. Multiply that $354 by 200 million and imagine how much that would add to the bottom line of the Electric Companies.

And most people consume that power during the day but fill up at night. Win, win. Add 200 mile batteries to the mix and all those solar panels will provide the peak demand the cars who can’t fill up at night need.

If I were the CEO of an Electric Company I’d be getting solar panels on peoples roofs now and building out the infrastructure to get ready to charge all those cars.

You might even want to give as much of an incentive to buy an electric car as you do to upgrade to a higher SEER AC unit.

You can help start the next great change in technology. Look at what Cellphone companies did to land lines. Look at how the internet is hitting TV and Newspapers.

You can be on the forefront by providing the infrastructure and shifting income from Oil Companies to Electric Companies. I’m still surprised you guys haven’t cashed in on internet services. You do have a wire going in to almost every house.

Why sell power to the refineries when you can cut out the middle man.

California, Arizona and Nevada. Lead the way.

 

 

Why a Tesla Should be your next car?

I was asked why I think a Tesla would be the EV to buy?

As many of you who have read my blog know I have a Ford Focus EV. I bought the Ford because it was the best overall EV for the price.

Yet it has it’s drawbacks. There isn’t a single Ford with a battery in it that was designed to have a battery in it. If you want either the Focus Electric or one of their PHEV’s, the battery takes up cargo space. In the Focus it takes up a lot of cargo space.

 

Ford Focus EV Cargo

 

 

The car also has a much wider turning radius than the ICE model Focus. You can’t make a u-turn on a normal two lane city street. You have to make a 3 point turn. Other than that it’s pretty much identical to the gas powered Focus with the SEL Trim Package. It has a real world range of about 75 miles.

Then you have the Mercedes B-Class EV. It’s a really nice looking car. Lots of room behind the back seats and the back seats fold down flat to create even more cargo space if needed. There is no battery in the way.

Mercedes B-Class EV Cargo Bay with Seats Flat.

 

This is a really a nice luxury EV that is not far off that $35k mark after the tax breaks. It has a pretty good real world range of about 85 miles. They actually designed the B-Class with using a battery for an energy source to begin with. Like the Tesla, the batteries lay flat under the cabin.

But then they go and screw things up by taking what is a really nice radar cruise control system and change the function of it. A radar cruise control should  keep your distance from the car in front of you and com to a complete stop if the car in front of you does. Instead if you start closing on the car in front to fast it applies the regenerative brakes so you don’t waste opportunity to recharge the battery by slowing down to quickly. That sounds like a great idea, right? Where they go wrong is now it won’t stop the car anymore if you are going to hit the car in front of you. I don’t know about you but I would much rather have a safer car than get that extra 2 or 3 miles from the regenerative brake system during a full charge.

There are also a few more compromises because while they did design this car with the batteries out of the way, they also designed it so they could use any of their powertrains. In Europe it is sold with both gas and diesel engines and they might also develop a fuel cell version.

The V.W. eGolf suffers from the same issues. While it accommodates the batteries without intrusion it doesn’t really have all the computer software and indicators that you want to see in a pure electric car.

This is where the Kia Soul EV actually has done a lot better job. But, yes their is a but. They take out the power seats. The top trim level has manual seats and very few of the new safety features available on most car today.

What all the companies out there have in common is that they compromise they EV’s to allow for different powertrains be they hybrid, Gas or Diesel. They are not betting the farm so to speak or going all in on Electric. Tesla is.

There is one automaker that has bet a lot on the EV, Nissan. Yet they have also made compromises. Unlike Tesla they decided that they would try to design an affordable EV from day one. It was really anything but affordable in the beginning and didn’t really get much traction until they offered the car at a sub $200 a month lease rate. Something that is starting to hurt them now as many people reach the end of their leases.

Nissan also suffers from the car being pretty ugly, fairly modest if not downright utilitarian as well as having bumps in the cargo bay.

Just like when the Prius started out you really had to want to be an early adopter.  I do find it interesting that now that the Prius has been on the market now for 15 years and within the last 3-5 years all of a sudden all the other car makers are coming out with some version of a hybrid car. And a handful after the slight and I say slight success of the Chevy Volt are now experimenting with Plugin In Hybrid cars. Most of the EV’s out there today are still nothing but compliance cars. Cars that allow them to keep making Internal Combustion Engine (I.C.E.) cars.

On the other hand you have Tesla. They first proved the concept with the Tesla Roadster. They proved a car could go 200 miles on a single charge and be fun to drive.

Their next car was the Tesla S. A car that was designed from a clean sheet of paper. No hedging their bets by having an ICE version. While it’s not a car for the mass market it is arguably one of the most successful cars in it’s price range. It’s also a car that is in the top safety, speed and has the most satisfied buyers of any car out there.

After the S we now have the X, the next car in the evolution. Also a very expensive car. Yet it does more than any other car in it’s class. I’m not sure there is any other car in it’s class.

But here are the reasons I really think Tesla is going to be the first to the really affordable car that everybody will want to buy.

They are now hard at work building the Tesla 3. A car that may have a 200 mile range. Seat 4-5. Actually carry some cargo much like the Mercedes B-Class or VW eGolf.

It will hands down have the least compromises with the greatest utility and look good doing it.

They will also have access to the Tesla Supercharger network. This is no small amenity. Even if GM or BMW builds a 200 mile car those batteries aren’t going to charge overnight in the average persons garage. Today an average pure EV battery is in the 24kWh range. With a 220 charger that takes about 5-8 hours. With a 110 it takes 15-20 hours.

Now double or triple the size of the battery and you need to double or triple the time it takes to charge. The only company that has the infrastructure in place to take advantage of a battery that size is Tesla. The only company that will allow you to take that car cross country is Tesla.

And while the eGolf or the B-Class Mercedes have enough range and luxury for most people and will also sell in that 35k price range they probably won’t be as desirable.

Many of you may have noticed I haven’t mentioned the BMW i3 yet. BMW did design the i3 from the ground up with the EV powertrain from day one. Yet they still have hedged their bet by offering a gas engine to extend the range. It’s either a work of art or really ugly. It’s really small and is really a two door car. And like every other BMW there is a big jump in price from the base model to the one that has all they toys you really want. For about the same price I would rather own the Mercedes B Class.

I don’t want a car that screams look at me. If I did I’d buy a Mustang or Corvette.

I don’t want a hybrid. They no longer get you in the HOV lane and are more utilitarian to drive than fun. Yeah, they get 40-50 MPG but the Mazda 6 gets 40 MPG on the highway and doesn’t suffer from being boring. Actually if you drive a lot on the highway hybrids might do worse than a Mazda 6. I know my Prius V does worse on highway trips. And around the city that extra 12 mpg isn’t really worth $10k more for the car.

I don’t want a plug in hybrid because the whole reason for an electric car is to eliminate waste and pollution. I don’t want a muffler, pistons and a fuel tank. I like never having to go to a gas station unless I have to stop and pee or need a 64 ounce drink.

And I really don’t want a Chevy Bolt. Smart Car or iMev. These cars are jokes. They aren’t even cute. To me they scream Bill Nye the science guy or Ed Begley Jr. They might be nice guys and I applaud their efforts to reduce pollution but, these are not two guys who inspire confidence or success.

There are a couple other things that make me think Tesla might just have what it takes to compete long term.

The evolution of Tesla is very much like the evolution of the Cell Phone. The supercharger network is very much like the evolution of the cell phone network by design. And the Tesla philosophy is very much like that of Apple and the iPhone.

I think every other car maker is going to be like all the other manufacturers who make Android Phones. Except they won’t have a cohesive infrastructure to support them. If they are going to rely on others to set up their charging networks they will fail. The average EV user, rarely if ever, charges anywhere but home or work and mostly at home.

That’s because the average driver rarely ever drives more than 50 miles a day. Only once in a while do they ever take that road trip everybody talks about that you need a 200-300 mile range.

And most smart people either fly or rent a car when going really long distances. If you breakdown in a rental you call the company and get a new car.

Rental companies make their money on people who rent cars locally. The people they know are only going to drive less than 50 miles in a day. You know, like the person who should really be driving an electric car. The person like you or me.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is Sunshine the New Moonshine.

honda-smart-home-at-uc-davis-california_100461630_lUtility companies all over the Country are enacting new fees on homes and businesses that put up solar panels on their roofs.

They have lots of reason but the biggest is that solar homes still need power when the sun doesn’t shine. Solar houses should pay for the lines and infrastructure needed to stay connected to the grid.

This sounds fair. After all. You do still use the system. But the truth is far more simple. They don’t charge you for using LED light bulbs instead of incandescent bulbs. They actually subsidize those. They don’t charge you for buying an Energy Star refrigerator or more efficient A/C unit. They even give you subsidies and rebates for those.

They also don’t charge a new 1200 SQF home that’s got all those energy efficient certifications any more to hook up to the system than an old 5000 SQF home that has old insulation and single pane windows. So WTF.

What we really have here is utilities trying to protect their turf along with their profit margins. They go out of their way to encourage and even subsidize energy efficiency but god forbid you produce your own energy. Now you are in direct competition. You are challenging their business model.

They have always had competition. You might have a gas stove or gas heat. Your water heater may be gas. Why haven’t they ever told people if your home isn’t all electric that you have to pay extra?

The only reason I ever looked at solar panels is because I bought an Electric Vehicle. I though maybe instead of using dirty coal from my electric company I might do the responsible thing and make clean power for my car.

My car would still consume more than I make in any given day so the electric company isn’t losing any money. Just not making a lot more. I would be providing some or much of that peak demand so they don’t need more infrastructure while filling up the car at night with off peak demand. You would think they would like that.

Earlier this year they proposed running high capacity power lines across our neighborhood because of all the new demand expected in the next 10 years. Ugly above ground lines costing millions per mile going across our views. It would probably be cheaper to put solar on every roof than to build those lines. They said they need them for peak demand. Just when solar provides the most.

I live in AZ and SRP is my utility. They have killed solar here. They aren’t adding what it costs to maintain the grid to my electric bill if I were to put up solar panels. They want what it costs to maintain their profit margin if not more. They don’t want people to produce power when it’s expensive and in demand. They want people to buy their power when it’s more expensive. Only the power they produce. Not that produced by rooftop independents so to speak.

It’s not just the $42 a month connection fee for solar homes. One of  the highest in the Country. They have added a peak demand fee to solar houses. And man, is it outrageous. They measure it in 15 minute increments, so if both my AC units kick in at the same time it would add almost $100 bucks that month to my electric bill.

One of the local solar installers told me the only reason now to add solar was to get the low (less than .05 per kWh) solar rate. Something they did to make the power solar panels produce the lowest return possible.

Funny thing is they will allow you to switch to the solar rate without solar. It’s experimental and only available to 5000 homes. (They still haven’t got 5000 takers yet as it’s only a great rate if the only time you need power is when nobody else is awake.) So I had them calculate my bill using that rate. My only peak power uses are my AC, no pool pumps, no electric water heater.

That’s it, just the AC and I can’t really choose not to use during peak demand hours. That’s when we need it most.

I tried cool my house to 72 degrees  just before peak demand. It only took two hours till it got over 80 degrees, and there’s no way I’m freezing my butt off cooling the house to 65 before 1 PM and hoping it stays below 80 till 8PM.  It would probably take 7-8 hours to cool it down that far anyway. It gets really hot in Arizona during the summer.

So why spend $23k after taxes to save .04 per kWh produced. The return was break even at best and there is nothing preventing the power company from charging me more in the future by raising fees on solar houses again. I would love to see them add an additional fee if you have a gas meter hooked up to your house. A battle of the monopolies.

Where I will probably save some money is when I can fill up a battery late at night and use it to moderate the peak demand rate during the day. That would save a lot of money on their peak demand rate plan as every kWh used at peak is $60 a month added onto your bill. Stay below 3kWh peak and it’s another $30 bucks or so off the bill. Once again, they encourage you to save electricity, just don’t make it.

I’m sure once people learn how to save using a Tesla Battery or something like it they will come up with another rate plan to protect their profits. They want you to buy peak power. They produce it at 6 cents and sell it for 12 cents. Even more when you have to pay for peak demand charges.

Off peak costs them 4 cents a kWh and they sell it for 7 cents. Far less revenue there.

They do want you to own an EV. More money in their pocket and not the oil companies. They will give you $50 if you do.

Utility companies look on people with solar like distillers look at moonshiners. Anything to kill the competition. Even if you have to tell half truths to do it. Many utilities even go so far as to contribute to the campaigns of friendly politicians. They Join ALEC who  writes bills that favor utilities. Then they can hand to those over to the folks they got elected to be introduced in the state legislatures. ALEC is writing your laws. Not the people you elected. I don’t remember voting for ALEC, did you? They say they are bipartisan. More like Buy Partisan.

There is one Arizona utility that might embrace solar. The power company in Tucson is actually putting solar on 500 rooftops as an experiment. Way to go Tucson.

Moonshines coming back. Maybe sunshine will find it’s way thru all the pollution one day as well.

 

Does D.C. Quick Charging Matter.

For me and many others the answer is no. For some absolutely. But very few. If you need DC Quick Charging you should think twice about buying electric.

There are several different rates of charge out there for EV cars and Plug-in Hybrids.

This is the rate at which when plugged in the battery will replenish it’s charge or refuel so to speak.

If you own a gas burning car you probably never thought about this. You pull up to a pump and in 5-10 minutes you are on your way with a full tank of gas. If you have a 10 gallon gas tank like my Prius it might take longer to swipe your credit card and get approval before the pump turns on.

If you drive an SUV with a 30 gallon tank It may take 3-5 minutes. The maximum rate at which fuel may be dispensed in the USA is 10 gallons per minute. Costco claims that they change their fuel filters when the flow rate falls below 8 gallons per minute.

So now let’s transfer some of this knowledge to EV’s. A pure BEV (battery electric vehicle) has a 24 kWh (kilowatt hour) battery or that’s how big it’s “fuel” tank is. The fuel being electricity.

Most BEV’s today with the exception of the Tesla and Toyota RAV4 EV have batteries that size or smaller.

The capacity of the chargers in BEV’s and Plug In Hybrid EV’s  start at 3.3 kilowatts, which is the norm for 2011 and 2012 Nissan Leafs, later base-model Leafs, and all 2011 thru 2015 Chevy Volts.

Later model year Leafs above the base model increased that rate to 6.6 kilowatts, and the 2016 Chevy Volt is up to 3.6 kilowatts, which, GM says, is enough to recharge its 18.4 kWh battery overnight using a standard 120V home outlet.

Now it’s still a bit more complicated. The speed at which your car can accept the electricity is not the same at which the outlet and charger can deliver it. Many of you already know this if you have tried to charge an iPad with an iPhone charger. If you use an iPhone charger on an iPad it could take more than twice as long to charge it. The charger actually converts the AC current from the wall socket to DC current that the battery needs. The iPad charger does it at a greater rate. And so the same thing with the onboard charger that comes with most EV’s.

Then there are the charging cords and “The Brick” that come with the EV. The Ford, Leaf and Chevrolet come with 110v chargers that plug in to your standard 15 AMP wall socket. Using this charger can can take almost 18 hours to recharge a car that has about a 10% charge left.

If you are like many Nissan owners you probably sent your charger in to a company to have it upgraded to handle a 220v connection on a 30 AMP outlet like your dryer runs on. I did.

But it still doesn’t charge as fast as if you are plugged into a 40AMP dedicated outlet with a EVSE Charger made to handle the higher electrical load. What can take the 110 charger 18 hours can be done by the 30AMP charger is 9 hours and the 40AMP charger is 5 or less hours. As long as you have a 6.6kW converter on your car.

The 110 charger works for me 80% of the time. I actually didn’t use anything but that charger for the first 5 months I owned my car.

Now I use my 220v charger more often because I am using more miles per day. When I drive 70 or so miles a day it goes on the 220v. It also goes on that to get the lowest price electricity in the shortest amount of time.

I also have a house with my own garage. If you have to fill up at work or at public chargers you probably want the highest capacity charge connection available. There are DC chargers out there where if your car is capable you can charge your battery up to 80% in less than 30 minutes. The problem is these chargers are few and far between and many aren’t well maintained. I don’t think a person with a 24kWh battery is going to need one.

If you have a Tesla or large battery like most car makers are saying they will have in the future then you at least need the highest capacity charger and EVSE you can get your hands on.

Like airlines you need to choose a car that has the right range and battery capacity to do the route that you are going to use it on. Batteries are not just costly but heavy. Carrying around extra costs in range and dollars.

Most people will not charge on the road. They will charge at home, work or both. If you drive over 80 miles a day and can’t afford a Tesla the DC Quick Charge probably won’t be your answer. A car like a Volt will be.

A BEV with a 80 mile average range like most out there today are really urban commuter vehicles. They are not road trip cars and never will be Quick Charge or not. At highway speeds they get about 1 hour at full charge, not 80% charge. At 80% you’d be stopping every 40-45 minutes if there were chargers that close together. Then another 30 minutes filling up. Who has that kind of patience. On the other hand like a Tesla with about a 200 mile range at 80% and a 30 minute break every 3-4 hours on a road trip that makes sense.

If you live or work where you can’t charge at all don’t buy a BEV. If you can charge at home, work or both get the highest capacity converter on the car you want. Then if you need or occasionally need a relatively quick 5-9 hour charge  get a 220v EVSE charging cord for when you need it.

If you want to drive BEV as often as possible but can only charge at 110v get a Plugin Hybrid like a Volt.

In the next year or two when the carmakers introduce 200 mile 40plus kWh batteries your going to not only want but need the largest capacity electrical connections you can get to take advantage of the large battery capacity they will have. What good is a 100 gallon tank if the pump only delivers 1 gallon per hour.

And speaking of only pumping one gallon per hour. That’s actually pretty good for electricity.

My Ford has a 96 eMPG. If it takes about 5 hours to fill my battery at the fastest charge rate that means at it’s fastest charge rate I’m only pumping 1 gallons worth of electricity in 5 hours. The gas version of my car would need about 3 gallons of gas to go the same distance.

That’s why I fill up every day instead of every 3 or 4 days. But since I’m using electricity and filling up at home my electricity is equal to $1 a gallon gas.

If you own a Tesla most of this advice goes out the door. You have a big battery with the onboard capacity to charge quickly. The only limitation is your home electrical system.

Tesla X Falcon Wing Doors, Gimmick or Great Idea?

Maybe a bit of both?

Yes, you can put your baby in a car seat without having to bend over.

Yes, you can get out of the car in a really tight parking space. Or can you?

Last time I drove a car I sat in the front seat. Unless your freakishly tall I’ll bet you did as well.

And the front doors on a Tesla X open the same way car doors have opened for years.

I see a little bit of BS with their example of getting wedged between two cars and implying that it doesn’t matter.

It might be easier than crawling through the lift gate on the tail but still not the answer they are implying it is.

Since I haven’t seen a X in person maybe I’m missing something but from all the videos I have seen I don’t think so.